INTRODUCTION: Considering the location, the frequency of faults and the probability of earthquake, district 20 is distinguished from other areas as the most dangerous region of Tehran. Due to the uncertainty of the time of the previous destructive earthquake, the probability of activation of these faults is very high. METHODS: Regarding the exploratory nature of this research, the environmental scanning technique was used, and due to the dominant approach of this research, which is future research, the Delphi technique was used. Structural analysis has been used in MicMac software to analyze data. FINDINGS: The results of the dispersion of the variables indicate the instability of the system in the studied area, and accordingly, five categories of variables were identified. CONCLUSION: The results showed that based on the quantitative analysis of the Scenario Wizard software, three golden, static and crisis scenarios were obtained for the 2051 horizon of district 20, which is the most valid scenario related to the static scenario.
