مطالب

This paper presents an optimal portfolio selection approach based on value at risk (VaR), conditional value at risk (CVaR), worst-case value at risk (WVaR) and partitioned value at risk (PVaR) measures as well as calculating these risk measures. Mathematical solution methods for solving these optimization problems are inadequate and very complex for a portfolio with high number of assets. For these reasons, a combination of particle swarm optimization (PSO) and genetic algorithm (GA) is used to determine optimized weights of assets. Stocks’ Optimized weight results show that proposed algorithm gives more accurate outcomes in comparison with GA algorithm. According to back-testing analysis, PVaR and WVaR overestimate risk value while VaR and CVaR give a rather accurate estimation. A set of companies in Tehran Stock Exchange are considered as a case study for empirical analysis. JEL Classification: G10, G11, G19

In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in currency unions internationally. The formation of currency union in Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has drawn much attention of Islamic countries. This paper aims to investigate the effect of currency union formation for trade among 49 Islamic countries over the period 1990-2012 by OCA and Augmented Gravity Model (AGM). The results show that common language, borders, and trade unions had positive and significant effect on trade in OIC countries; and being landlocked and distance between source and host countries had negative and significant effect on bilateral trade. Also, the currency union had positive and significant effects on trade in OIC countries. The evidence thus suggests that regional currency union arrangements stimulate bilateral trade in OIC rigorously. JEL Classification: F47, E49

The ‘Subsidy Targeting Project’ was introduced by the government of Iran in 2010 to ease the impact of removing price subsidies (carried out as part of recent economic liberalization reforms). Under this scheme, regardless of their socio-economic characteristics, Iranian citizens residing in Iran receive the same amount of cash rebate (currently 455,000 Iranian Rials per month). This paper uses the equivalence scales approach to query the fairness of this policy exercise. We use Iran’s Household Expenditure and Income Surveys datasets for 1984-2007 (compiled annually by the Statistical Centre of Iran) to estimate the Engel-curve-based equivalence scales which take account of the main household features: size, geographic location, and a number of characteristics of head of household. Our estimates suggest a clear profile of redistribution which questions the fairness of disregarding households’ characteristics in such a large scale redistribution exercise which was primarily designed to offset the welfare impacts of removing price subsidies. JEL Classification: I30, I31, I32, I38

Monetary environment as the core of financial system has been functionally designed in light of the new set of extensive goals including financial stability, sustainable noninflationary growth, external sustainability, and price stability. A comprehensive monetary policy framework is proposed for Iran which systematically include the new goals, stance variables, instruments, transmission mechanism as well as timely monitoring system. Accordingly, macroeconomic data provides a reliable momentum to evaluate how far the macroeconomic condition is away from the monetary goals in case the data is timely-consistently compiled by policy makers. A wide variety of policy instruments are occasionally applied in the context of the new monetary policy framework by the conventional transmission channels which are technically tracked via monetary condition index, early warning system, leading indicators, and stress tests that give a timely feedback to policy makers to draw contemporaneously a picture of macro prudential stance. Given the prominent share of asset market (housing and capital) in the whole financial and nonfinancial markets in Iran, the monetary policy is empirically required to streamline assets market’s flow of funds instead of extra concentration on broad money growth and lending channel. Meanwhile, balance sheet channel is obviously expected to be more effective against monetary policy stance rather than lending channel in order to achieve monetary goals. In this regard, housing and capital markets are both significantly considered more efficient to finance flow of funds and fiscal deficit. JEL Classifications: E52, E59, G10