ولی نعمتی

Tourism is regarded as a complementary activity that contributes to the sustainability of nomads' livelihoods and raises welfare and living standards, as well as the economic growth of nomadic areas, through the capabilities and attractions of the Shahsavan nomads. The present study tries to identify the scenarios of nomadic tourism in Shahsavan, Ardabil province. The research strategy is a case study through a qualitative study using a multi-faceted method and a cross-sectional time horizon. In data collection, in the first step, key experts were used to collect data to extract the factors affecting nomadic tourism development (NTD) and to examine the impact of these variables on each other. The influential factors were divided into 12, seven promoting and five inhibiting factors. The mutual influence matrix was used to determine the effect of variables on one another, and scenarios were created using propulsions extracted from the influencing factors. After collecting the questionnaires, the scenario was conducted using Scenario Wizard software. The scenarios in the current research were divided into three groups: favourable, intermediate, and unfavourable. According to experts, access to favourable scenarios is accompanied by many limitations and obstacles. Its occurrence requires coherent planning, commitment, and participation from all stakeholders, and the occurrence of unfavourable and catastrophic scenarios also looks pretty pessimistic. According to current trends, the vast majority of experts believe that a slight improvement in the current situation is possible in the future of this type of tourism.