سناریوهای فراروی مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان از منظر درهم تنیدگی مقیاس ها (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک متاثر از درهم تندگی مقیاس ها و به تبع بازیگران و کنشگران با اهداف و منافع ناهمسان قرار دارد. امنیت آب شرق ایران به شدت در پیوند با رودهایی است که از افغانستان سرچشمه می گیرند. در چند دهه گذشته رویکرد دولت های حاکم بر افغانستان، محدودسازی آب رودهای این کشور بوده است. پژوهش کاربردیِ حاضر با هدف ارائه سناریوهای فراروی مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان از منظر درهم تنیدگی مقیاس ها نگارش یافته است. داده های مورد نیاز پژوهش با استفاده از روش های کتابخانه ای و میدانی؛ گردآوری و با بهره گیری از نرم افزارهای Micmac و Scenario Wizard تحلیل شده اند. یافته های پژوهش نشان دادند در بُعد بازیگران؛ مقیاس ملی و متغیر نقش دولت افغانستان در رعایت حقابه ایران و در بُعد عواملِ تاثیرگذار؛ مقیاس جهانی و متغیر تغییر اقلیم، تاثیرگذارترین مقیاس و متغیر هستند. نتایج پژوهش نشان دادند هر چند سناریو وضعیت بحرانی در مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان بر دیگر سناریوهای ممکن از منظر در هم تنیدگی مقیاس ها برتری دارد، اما ظرفیت های لازم در هر دو دولت وجود دارند تا بتوانند از گسترش دامنه بحران بکاهند.Scenarios of Hydro-Political Relations between Iran and Afghanistan from the Perspective of Scale Intertwinement
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Geographical scales mutually influence the hydro-political relations between Iran and Afghanistan, complicating the management of shared water resources. Despite various studies, no research has simultaneously examined the roles of both actors and factors influencing these relations from the perspective of scale intertwinement. This study focuses on local, national, regional, and global scales to identify key actors and factors and to present probable future scenarios for the water relations between the two countries. It addresses these questions:
Who are the key actors in Iran-Afghanistan hydro-political relations at each geographical scale, and which actor is most influential?
What are the main factors affecting these relations at each scale, and which factor has the greatest impact?
What is the most likely future scenario for Iran-Afghanistan hydro-political relations from the scale intertwinement viewpoint?
The findings first identify the major actors and factors across scales. Then, they outline possible future scenarios. Understanding these helps policymakers create better strategies for managing water relations with Afghanistan.
Methodology
This applied mixed-methods study was conducted in several stages. Initially, influential variables (actors and factors) across different geographical scales were identified through library research and ranked using the FBMW, FSOARA, and FCOPRAS models. The Micmac software was then used to validate and determine the key variables by comparing its results with those models. After defining various scenarios for these key variables, a cross-impact questionnaire was developed and given to experts who rated the interactions between scenarios. The collected data were analyzed using Scenario Wizard to identify the most likely future scenario of hydro-political relations between Iran and Afghanistan from the perspective of scale intertwinement.
Result and Discussion
The research findings showed that in the dimension of actors, the national scale and the role of the Afghan government in respecting Iran’s water rights were identified as the most influential scale and actor. The key factors impacting the hydro-political relations between Iran and Afghanistan from the perspective of scale intertwinement included the necessity of developing Afghanistan’s agricultural economy, meeting the water needs of Afghanistan’s growing population, the poor management and consumption patterns of water resources in the Helmand River basin, Afghanistan’s transit and trade dependence on landlocked Iran, and climate change.
Conclusion
The future situation of hydro-political relations between Iran and Afghanistan from the perspective of scale intertwinement is critical. As a solution, the research proposes addressing the shortcomings of both countries through their mutual and complementary cooperation in linking hydro-political and geopolitical approaches.
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