تغییر سیاست خارجی عربستان سعودی و احیای روابط با ایران (1400 -1403) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
مناسبات عربستان سعودی و جمهوری اسلامی ایران در طول چند دهه گذشته از فراز و فرودهای فراوانی برخوردار بوده است. رقابت های ایدئولوژیکی و ژئوپلیتیکی بین این دو کنشگر قدرتمند خاورمیانه، به تنش های گوناگون و نهایتاً جنگ های نیابتی منجر گردید. با این حال، در سال های اخیر شاهد نوعی دگردیسی در سیاست های عربستان در قبال ایران بوده ایم. بر همین مبنا، گفت وگوهای سازنده بین دو کشور در سال 2021 آغاز شد و در نهایت با وساطت چین به «توافق پکن» در سال 2023 منتهی شد؛ که به احیای روابط دیپلماتیک میان «ریاض» و «تهران» پس از 7 سال قطع رابطه انجامید. در همین چهارچوب، هدف پژوهش بررسی علل تغییر سیاست خارجی عربستان و تمایل این کشور به احیای روابط با ایران است؛ بنابراین، سؤال اصلی بدین گونه مفصل بندی شده است که عوامل مؤثر در تغییر سیاست خارجی عربستان سعودی که نهایتاً منجر به احیای روابط ریاض با تهران شده است کدام اند؟ فرضیه پژوهش بر این اساس طرح شده است که مجموعه ای از عوامل داخلی، منطقه ای و بین المللی نظیر پیشبرد برنامه توسعه اقتصادی در چهارچوب سند چشم انداز 2030، که مستلزم ایجاد ثبات و امنیت در منطقه می باشد، تغییر ادراکات نخبگان سعودی نسبت به تحولات خارجی، شکست در رقابت های ژئوپلیتیکی و جنگ های نیابتی با ایران و بی اعتمادی به سیاست های دولت های گوناگون آمریکا، در تغییر سیاست خارجی ریاض نقش مهمی ایفا نمودند. یافته های پژوهش نشان می دهد که مجموعه این عوامل، الزامات و محدودیت هایی را برای عربستان سعودی ایجاد نمود و نهایتاً نخبگان سیاسی این کشور را به سوی تعدیل تنش ها و منازعات و احیای روابط با تهران سوق داد. روش پژوهش توصیفی- تحلیلی است و برای تحلیل موضوع پژوهش از نظریه رئالیسم نوکلاسیک استفاده شده است.Shift in Saudi Arabia's Foreign Policy and the Restoration of Relations with Iran (2021–2024)
Introducion: During the recent years, Iran-Saudi Arabia relations have significantly fluctuated due to political, ideological, and regional tensions. Factors such as the uprisings during 2011, execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, and attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran exacerbated tensions and severed diplomatic relations between the two countries. Proxy wars in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon, missile attacks on Saudi oil facilities, along with Riyadh policies aligned with the Trump administration, added to the tensions. According to some observers, the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia had turned into a “Cold War” in the Middle East. During the recent years, a kind of metamorphosis has occurred in Riyadh policies, indicating imminent changes in its relations with Tehran. Constructive Saudi-Iranian talks to reduce tensions began in Baghdad during April 2021 and continued in Muscat, leading to the “Beijing Agreement” with Chinese mediation during 2023. China, as an intermediary power, restored Saudi Arabia political relations with Iran. However, the conditions reveal that Riyadh has adjusted its aggressive policies based on domestic, regional, and international requirements to repair bilateral relations in light of the existing realities and changing circumstances, and restore its diplomatic relations with Iran. The present study aims to assess the reasons for the change in Saudi Arabia policies and its tendency to restore bilateral relations with Tehran after more than a decade of conflict and severance of diplomatic relations for about seven years.
Research question: What are the factors influencing the change in Saudi Arabia foreign policy, which resulted in restoring Riyadh-Tehran relations?
Research hypothesis: The research hypothesis is based on the premise that a set of domestic, regional, and international factors such as advancing the economic development program within the framework of Vision 2030, which requires establishing stability and security in the region, changing perceptions of Saudi elites towards external developments, defeat in geopolitical competitions and proxy wars with Iran, and distrust in the policies of various US governments played a critical role in changing Riyadh foreign policy.
Method and Theoretical framework: The method is considered as qualitative with a descriptive-analytical approach. The data were collected through library and internet resources. The theory of neoclassical realism was used to explain the topic. This theory seeks to combine internal and structural variables (international system) to explain the behaviors and foreign policies of countries.
Results and discussion: Based on the results, five key factors led to the change in Saudi Arabia foreign policy towards Iran. These factors included the change in the attitude of Saudi leaders in their foreign policy towards Iran, which was influenced by the increasing experience of Mohammed bin Salman and economic imperatives, Saudi Arabia economic development plan within the framework of Vision 2030, which requires creating stability and security in the region because Saudi leaders realized that economic development cannot be achieved without creating such security, Saudi Arabia failure in geopolitical competition with Iran and its inability to win against the Iranian-led resistance front in different proxy wars, Saudi Arabia frustration with the policies of various US governments towards regional developments and Iranian actions, which led to its distrust in Washington commitment and support, and Saudi Arabia policy of focusing on east and creating opportunities for China, which aimed to expand its influence in the Middle East within the framework of competition with the United States. In fact, Saudi decision-makers found that securing their interests required de-escalation and a policy revision. Such change of approach had consequences for Iran including reducing the costs of hostilities and continuation of the conflict, resulting in preventing the country from being confronted by powerful international and regional coalitions.
Conclusion: During the recent years, Saudi Arabia has sought to ensure its maximum security and national interests by changing its foreign policy approach towards interest-based pragmatism. After years of experience and better understanding of regional and international conditions, Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, who claims to be the country leader, found that implementing a hostile policy towards Iran endangers the security of the Saudi family, as well as challenging the future development and progress of his country. In addition, bin Salman realized that international politics is changing and mere dependence on the United States in an era of multipolarity fails to ensure the political, economic, and security interests of his country. Strengthening the Look East policy and developing relations with China, India, and Russia is understandable within this framework. In addition, the situation in Iran, affected by the inappropriate economic pressures resulting from sanctions and costs of proxy wars which made the domestic situation more difficult, eased the tensions with Saudi Arabia. Political elites in Iran found that a policy of engagement with Saudi Arabia should be adopted to overcome structural pressures, threats from ideological conflicts, internal security risks, and regional isolation, resulting in reducing the costs. Accordingly, Iran announced its readiness to begin negotiations. Some conflicts still exist between the two sides in areas such as ideological, sectarian, and religious issues, three Iranian islands, Iran nuclear program, security in the Persian Gulf, US military presence in the region, resistance front, and regional confrontations, despite the positive change in Iranian-Saudi relations. Each of the above-mentioned variables can plunge the relations between the two countries into crisis again due to the strong grounds for distrust in the region.
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