روند پژوهی تحول ائتلاف های رژیم صهیونیستی در منطقه غرب آسیا (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
بنیان های تشکیل رژیم صهیونیستی در غرب آسیا بر مبنای اشغال و قدرت نظامی بوده است؛ بنابراین تل آویو همواره با بحران مشروعیت در محیط پیرامونی خود مواجه بوده است. اصلی ترین راه کار رژیم برای برون رفت از این بحران اتحاد و ائتلاف با برخی کشورهای منطقه است. این راه کار از یک الگوی یکسان تبعیت نکرده و در طول زمان به تناسب تحول در «مجموعه امنیتی غرب آسیا» تغییر کرده است. در حال حاضر روند اتحاد و ائتلاف سازی رژیم از رویکرد خطی و دوجانبه به «شبکه سازی پیچیده منطقه ای» تغییر یافته است. با عنایت به الگوی جدیدی که رژیم صهیونیستی در پیش گرفته این پرسش مطرح است که شبکه سازی منطقه ای رژیم صهیونیستی بر چه ارکانی استوار است؟ و هدف اصلی رژیم در تغییر راهبردهای ائتلافی در منطقه غرب آسیا چیست؟ در پاسخ این استدلال مطرح می شود که شبکه سازی ائتلاف های رژیم بر ایجاد پیوندهای مشترک با کشورهای عربی در قالب پیمان ابراهیم و با کشورهای ترکیه، جمهوری آذربایجان و اقلیم کردستان در قالب ائتلاف های نوپیرامونی ساماندهی شده است. هدف اساسی رژیم از حرکت به سمت شبکه سازی ائتلاف ها، به حاشیه راندن موضوع فلسطین برای رفع مشکلات در حوزه امنیت داخلی سرزمین های اشغالی و جانمایی رژیم به عنوان گرانیگاه اقتصادی، سیاسی و امنیتی در منطقه غرب آسیا است. دستاورد این رویکرد در بلندمدت، ایجاد وابستگی متقابل میان امنیت، اقتصاد و سیاست رژیم صهیونیستی با بازیگران حاضر در منطقه است.Trend Analysis of the Evolution of Israeli Coalitions in West Asia
Introduction: From the very beginning, the Israeli regime’s regional policy in West Asia has been profoundly impacted by its legitimacy crisis in the neighborhood. Back then, fewer chances of normalization between Israel and the Arab world, led to the formation of “the Periphery Doctrine” which essentially advocated for close alliances with non-Arab states and actors in order to balance the Arab enemies. Yet the Iranian Revolution of 1979 seriously affected Iran’s approach, Exposing clear weaknesses in the doctrine. Thus, the Israeli regime attempted to exploit differences that existed among Arab nations through the “Dehyphenation” policy. The more mature use of these two sets of policies ever since have enabled Israel to move toward a new pattern of coalitions based on a regional network. This pattern differs from the former ones by its aims and features. This study intends to explore the aims and features of new coalitions of Israel conceptualized as “Regional Networking”.
Theoretical Framework: Alliances and coalitions are significant phenomena in international politics across different traditions. For Realists, alliances matter from the perspective of power relations; for Liberals, they seem important from the perspective of interdependence; for Constructivists, they could reflect their domestic politics. Nevertheless, recent evolutions of world and regional orders have further complicated the study of coalitions as an outcome of a complex system in modern politics. Thus, coalitions have moved from bilateral reciprocal relations between two specific countries to complex networks.Networking (network building) in foreign policy is a particular form of international interaction based on principles such as the interdependence of member states in various areas. It also indicates the transfer of information and scarce resources from one actor to another. Here, the aims of members (nodes) and the aim of the network determine the strategies and dynamics of the network. Successful establishment of connections between various nodes within a network requires strong alignment of members’ specific goals. These goals are consolidated in both horizontal and vertical contexts. This study intends to explain the formation of new Israeli coalitions using the concept of networking and network building among actors (various nodes) in foreign relations to maximize coalition outcomes.
Methodology: This study uses the trend analysis method, an approach that builds its argument on analyzing historical data and identifying key features of a phenomenon to suggest the formation of specific patterns and political changes in international relations. Trends are gradual forces, factors, or patterns leading to coalition emergence, shaping and transforming order. Using existing literature, historical analysis, and library-based methods, this study examines the latest trends in coalition formation by the Israeli regime.
Results and Discussion: The Results section is one Israel’s regional environment includes several players with different perceptions, aims, and needs. In other words, to influence the regional order, Israel needs to engage with Arab and non-Arab actors across various geopolitical landscapes. Building on these concepts, Israel must find common ground among several nodes (members or states) for the formation of an effective network of alliances. This study argues that the “Abraham Accords” on one hand and the “Neo-Periphery Coalitions” on the other provide the fundamental context for this network. Israel’s regional networking combines the mutual aims and interests of Arab actors (nodes) under the banner of the Abraham Accords, while binding non-Arab actors (nodes) through the Neo-Periphery Coalitions. The Abraham Accords possess three distinct features that solidify the mutual objectives of Israel and the Arab participants: marginalization of the Palestinian issue, Iranophobia, and military cooperation. These features highlight the novelty of Israel’s new approach, moving away from both Dehyphenation and the Periphery Doctrine. In the Neo-Periphery approach, Israel has formed a network of non-Arab actors such as Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Iraqi Kurdistan. Apart from penetration into the Islamic world, cementing alliances and coalitions in the South Caucasus and Central Asia is particularly important for Israel, especially as part of its strategy to isolate Iran in its neighborhood. Israel seeks to establish an Arab-Hebrew coalition in Iran’s southern neighborhood, while it aims for an Azerbaijani-Turkish-Hebrew coalition in the northern regions. Between these two coalitions, the northern axis poses a far greater threat to Iran. While October 7 has delayed the alliance-making process between Israel and the Arab world, the ultimate outcome of the Gaza War could influence the future of normalization. By the end of the Gaza War, it is possible that the normalization process could resume.
Conclusions and Suggestions: This study finds that in its historic quest for alliances from the bilateral model to the regional networking model, Israel’s central objective is to attain legitimacy. In this quest, Israel has used several elements to further consolidate its links with coalition nodes.Apart from that, the core of this coalition formation process reflects
both vertical and horizontal levels. At the vertical level, Israel aims to manage and contain the tensions arising from occupation, since more than half of the population sees Israel as an occupying force in that geography.Israel intends to marginalize the Palestinian issue by transforming it from a supranational, regional, and global matter to a domestic internal matter. This way, it could hope for the formation of the new Israeli-Arab network. By marginalization, Israel would have common ground with the Arab world to link these nodes and form a coalition, while it deals with the resistance movements by the method of its choosing, without firm support. At the horizontal level, Israel seeks to overcome its legitimacy problem through alliances, linking the security of the occupied territories to regional security. Constructing Iranophobia is at the core of this strategy. With the international system shifting and the U.S. reducing its presence in West Asia, the Israeli regime aims to become the regional connector in the Western-led order. This role, spanning politics, security, and recently economics, aims to strengthen Israel’s position in the region and increase the interdependence between regional capitals and Tel Aviv. Israel's goal is to secure a position for itself in which it is considered the central economic, political, and security hub of the region. Thus, Israel's security would translate to regional and global economic stability. By doing so, the Israeli elite would achieve two objectives: reducing internal pressures and weakening external opposition. If successful, it would significantly raise the costs of action against Israel, with participating nations responding accordingly.
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