تحلیل مقایسه ای الگوی رقابت و همکاری ایران و افغانستان در دوران دولت وحدت ملی و طالبان (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
ایران به عنوان یکی از مهم ترین همسایگان غربی افغانستان مناسبات عمیقی در سطوح مختلف با این کشور دارد. در طول دو دهه اخیر و با شکل گیری دولت وحدت ملی همواره مسیر روابط دو کشور متأثر از عوامل تأثیرگذار فردی همچون ادراک رهبران سیاسی، عوامل ملی نظیر: متغیرهای قومی، مذهبی، جغرافیایی و فرهنگی و همچنین عوامل خارجی مانند حضور کشورهای مداخله گر منطقه و بین المللی و حضور گروه های تروریستی بوده است. به عبارتی دیگر مناسبات دو کشور ایران و افغانستان همواره بر رقابت و اصولاً تنش اما نه از جنس قهرآمیز و همکاری و تعمیق روابط در بُعد سیاسی و امنیتی بوده است. ایران تاکنون دولت طالبان را به رسمیت نشناخته و تلاش کرده است تا از طریق دیپلماسی منطقه ای و همکاری با کشورهای دیگر، به حل و فصل بحران های افغانستان کمک کند. این روابط پیچیده نشان دهنده ترکیبی از منافع مشترک و اختلافات عمیق است که دو کشور را به سمت همکاری و در عین حال رقابت سوق داده است. از این رو پرسش اصلی مقاله حاضر این است که با توجه به متغیرهای چندسطحی مؤثر در روابط ایران و افغانستان، الگوی فهم روابط ایران و افغانستان در دولت وحدت ملی و دولت طالبان را بر چه اساسی می توان صورت بندی و تحلیل کرد؟ در پاسخ به پرسش اصلی، با استفاده از روش تحلیل مقایسه ای متغیرهای داخلی و خارجی که در دوره های زمانی مختلف استقرار این دو دولت از اهمیت متفاوتی برخوردار بوده اند باعث گردیده الگوی ماهوی حاکم بر رقابت و همکاری ایران و افغانستان یک الگوی «چندوجهی»، «دینامیک» و «پیچیده» باشد. در این بین با توجه به در نظر داشت وجوه چندسطحی تفاوت این دو دوره، الگوی استخراجی دوره دولت وحدت ملی «میل به همکاری در پرتو موازنه قدرت منطقه ای» و الگوی رقابت و همکاری دوره طالبان «تشدید منازعه و تصاعد بحران در پرتو موازنه چندلایه منافع» صورت بندی شده است. چهارچوب نظری اتخاذی مقاله برای استخراج الگوی روابط دو کشور با اتکا به صورت بندی نوینی از نظریه رئالیسم نوکلاسیک بوده که به نویسندگان مقاله امکان ترکیبی از محدودیت ها و فرصت های بین المللی، سطح و میزان تهدیدهای خارجی و فرصت ها و محدودیت های داخلی رفتار سیاست خارجی بازیگران را می دهد. روش تحقیق مقاله با اتکا به داده های کیفی به شکل تحلیلی- تبیینی است.A Comparative Analysis of the Competition and Cooperation Patterns between Iran and Afghanistan during the National Unity Government and the Taliban Regime
Introduction: Relations between Iran and Afghanistan have historically been characterized by a complex blend of competition and cooperation, marked by underlying tension but not escalating to violent conflict. These relations have evolved primarily in the political and security dimensions. Since the onset of the war and crisis in Afghanistan, Iran has consistently sought to assist in resolving the crises of its key neighbor through both bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, as well as cooperation with regional actors and other influential international stakeholders.
The intricate relationship between Tehran and Kabul reflects a combination of shared interests and significant differences, which have driven both countries toward cooperation while simultaneously fostering dynamic and fluctuating competition. The presence of U.S. military forces in Afghanistan has been a longstanding concern for Iran, leading it to repeatedly call for the withdrawal of foreign troops. In parallel with this position, Iran has sought to maintain its regional influence by collaborating with various Afghan factions. This cooperation reached its apex during the period of Afghanistan’s National Unity Government, with both countries actively pursuing joint efforts in infrastructure reconstruction and the creation of economic corridors.
Following the withdrawal of U.S. forces and the resurgence of the Taliban in 2021, Iran's relations with Afghanistan entered a new phase. Despite its apprehension regarding the Taliban, Iran sought to avoid direct confrontation, aiming instead to establish a pragmatic and balanced relationship. However, tensions between the two countries escalated over issues such as border
disputes and water rights, with these concerns particularly intensifying between 2022 and 2023. Iran has not recognized the Taliban government and continues to attempt to address the Afghan crisis through regional diplomacy and cooperation with other nations.
A notable point of contention has been the dispute over the distribution of water resources, particularly the flow of the Helmand River, which Iran has repeatedly criticized for its reduction. These tensions peaked in 2023 and led to sporadic border clashes. Iran’s official stance towards the Taliban remains a mixture of caution, criticism, and a focus on safeguarding its national interests. Tehran is particularly concerned with preventing instability along its borders and thwarting any potential threats emanating from Afghanistan.
Despite these concerns, Iran’s approach towards the Taliban remains one of careful engagement. While critical of the Taliban’s rise to power, especially given the ideological differences between the Taliban and the Islamic Republic, Iran has strategically avoided direct confrontation with the group. Instead, Tehran has opted to manage its relationship with the Taliban through diplomatic means, maintaining open channels of communication. This dual approach reflects Iran’s desire to maintain its influence in Afghanistan without directly confronting the Taliban, striving for a balance between strategic caution and practical engagement.
Research Question: The central research question of this paper is: In light of the multiple variables influencing Iran-Afghanistan relations, how can a comprehensive model for understanding the dynamics of relations during the National Unity Government and the Taliban period be developed and analyzed?
Research Hypothesis: To answer this question, the paper employs a comparative analysis method to examine the internal and external variables that have played differing roles at various stages of the two governments.
Methodology (and Theoretical Framework if there are): The theoretical framework underpinning this analysis is a reinterpreted version of neoclassical realism, which enables the authors to integrate both international constraints and opportunities, as well as the level of external threats and internal factors influencing foreign policy behavior. Unlike classical realism, which primarily emphasizes external factors in shaping state behavior, neoclassical realism incorporates the influence of internal factors—such as political, economic, and social structures—on foreign policy and bilateral relations. This theory posits that foreign policy decisions are not solely driven by external pressures but are also significantly shaped by domestic conditions and the interests of various political groups within a state. Neoclassical realism offers a clear and structured framework for analyzing these factors, facilitating a more nuanced examination of foreign policy dynamics. By integrating both structural and internal factors, neoclassical realism provides a balanced approach, reconciling
the theoretical rigor demanded by realist perspectives with an acknowledgment of the complexities inherent in state decision-making. This theoretical approach offers a more coherent and comprehensive understanding of foreign policy, particularly in the case of major powers like the United States.
Results and discussion: Iran’s foreign policy toward Afghanistan has been shaped by the interplay between external pressures—including the international system and regional competition—and internal factors such as economic considerations, security concerns, ideological commitments, and elite perceptions. The dynamics of this policy have evolved in response to structural and domestic changes during different periods. Between 2014 and 2021, under the Afghan National Unity Government, the Iran-Afghanistan relationship exhibited less complexity compared to the current Taliban era. During this period, the interactions were primarily characterized by cooperation in economic, security, and cultural domains. These relations were relatively stable and orderly, benefiting from a more structured framework enabled by Afghanistan’s relatively stable and internationally recognized central government.
In contrast, the current decision-makers in Afghanistan approach Iran through a lens shaped by pressing domestic challenges that necessitate cooperation with neighboring countries, particularly allies. However, their efforts to emerge from a transitional phase and consolidate their sovereignty are accompanied by a posture of independence and an assertive stance. Under such circumstances, the inclination for cooperation remains limited, as both sides adopt cautious and measured approaches to meet their respective needs. This restrained interaction creates a gap, characterized by caution and delay, which undermines the immediate prospects for meaningful cooperation. Consequently, the bilateral relationship risks being defined by a form of cautious competition, further complicating the potential for collaborative engagement in the short term.
Conclusion: The findings suggest that the governing model of competition and cooperation between Iran and Afghanistan is inherently "multifaceted," "dynamic," and "complex." The model for the National Unity Government period is characterized as "a desire for cooperation amidst regional power dynamics," while the model for the Taliban period reflects "intensified conflict and escalating crises in the context of a multilayered balance of interests.’
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