حکومت سازی طالبان در افغانستان؛ چالش های ژئوپلیتیکی فرا ملی و راهکارهای آن (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
حکومت برای نظم بشر یک اصل و حکومت سازی برای کشورها مهم ترین بخش برای بقای کشورهاست. کشورهایی که پیش تر به آسایش اجتماعی و قدرت ملی رسیده اند، قبل تر از همه در امر حکومت سازی موفق شده اند. ساختن یک حکومت کارآ و مردمی آن هم در کشوری مثل افغانستان (موقعیت حائل)، قطعاً با چالش های فراوان ژئوپلیتیکی در مقیاس های فروملی و فراملی روبه رویند. چالش های ژئوپلیتیکی در مقیاس فراملی در کشوری مثل افغانستان از تأثیرگذارترین مؤلفه ها در امر حکومت سازی است. تحقیق حاضر در تلاش است تا ضمن درک موانع و چالش های ژئوپلیتیکی طالبان در مقیاس فراملی برای ساخت یک حکومت مردمی و کارآ در افغانستان، به بررسی راهکارهای عملیاتی عبور از این چالش ها نیز بپردازد. تحقیق حاضر به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از حیث ماهیت و روش توصیفی-تحلیلی است. همچنین شیوه ی جمع آوری اطلاعات به صورت هم پیمایشی(مصاحبه و پرسشنامه ای) و هم به شیوه ی کتابخانه ای صورت گرفته است. پس از گردآوری داده ها، به کمک روش کیو و استفاده از نرم افزارSpss اقدام به تحلیل گفتمان و الگوهای نظری نخبگان سیاسی راجع به مساله موردنظر پرداخته شد. یافته های تحقیق حاکی از آن است که اشتراکات سرزمینی-تمدنی با کشورهای همسایه، راهبردهای متضاد و مداخلات کشورهای همسایه، منطقه و قدرت های بزرگ در افغانستان و موقعیت ژئوپلیتیکی حائل افغانستان از مهم ترین چالش های حکومت سازی در افغانستان به حساب می آیند. همچنین ایجاد روحیه همکاری و حتی مشارکت با کشورهای جهان برای مبارزه با گسترش تروریسم جهانی، تعامل با نهادهای بین المللی حقوق بشری، سیاسی و اقتصادی و اتخاذ سیاست بی طرف فعال در سطح سیاست بین المللی به عنوان راهکارهای مهم گذار از این چالش ها شناسایی شده است.Taliban Government Formation in Afghanistan; Transnational Geopolitical Challenges and Their Solutions
Introduction
In addition to human needs, humanity requires the power to regulate the environment for everyone and manage the conflicts between individuals. Therefore, the absence of a regulator leads to the destruction of societies. On the other hand, in today's world a government defines and asserts the identity and rights of their citizens (Salehi, 2014:10). If a strong and democratic government is formed, the people of that country will have greater and better access to their social and political needs, both in domestic and in the international systems. Conversely, if a government is weak, people will have less access to these needs. Hence, a unified political umbrella called government, which is strong and effective, is one of the essential human needs. Therefore, the masses need to undergo a prolonged process to build a unified nation, establish a state, and ultimately establish a strong, independent, and free government. Throughout history, it has been proven that no powerful nation or state has emerged spontaneously. Historically, numerous conflicts and tensions between ethnic, religious, linguistic, and political groups have been accepted internally due to the geopolitical position, and its significance for regional and global hegemons, until a unified nation and a strong government are realized.
In African, Asian, and Eastern European countries, the greatest weakness lies in management. This is because many of these countries were emerging and the organization and political management of the national space were considered important priorities for their national survival (Hafiznia & Kateb, 2020:36). They have either fallen into the trap of group tensions or harsh geographical circumstances, or they have become battlegrounds for proxy wars between colonial powers and regional and international hegemons. The process of nation-building and establishing a strong and effective government is extremely difficult and challenging. Only a few of the countries trapped in such quagmires have been able to find a way out, while the majority of these countries are still embroiled in internal ethnic and religious foundationalism and external conflicts fueled by both conventional and unconventional weapons of hegemonic powers. Afghanistan, as one of the Third World countries trapped in ethnic-group conflicts and power struggles of international and regional hegemons faces the fundamental challenges of nation-building and governance (strong and effective government). Therefore, this research aims to understand the geopolitical obstacles and challenges faced by the Taliban in their pursuit of a people-oriented and effective government in Afghanistan, while also examining practical solutions to overcome these challenges.
Methodology
The present study is descriptive-analytic in terms of objective and nature. Data collection was conducted through two methods: exploratory (interviews and questionnaire distribution among the target population) and library research. Initially, relevant sources and information regarding the research background and theoretical foundations were gathered by accessing both English and Persian resources.
In the next stage, the target community was approached, and data was collected from political elites through interviews and completion of questionnaires. The target community (political elites) was approached in two stages: in the first stage, using open-ended questions aligned with the research objectives, preliminary statements were collected from the available elites (20 top-level political decision-makers in the previous Afghan government), resulting in 150 initial statements. After reviewing, scrutinizing, and merging the received statements, the research team reduced them to 78 statements. Then, the statements were formatted in a Q-method questionnaire for the opinion survey and analysis of the elites' perspectives.
In the second stage, political elites were approached to complete the Q-method questionnaire. 40 political elites participated including high-level political activists (presidential advisors, cabinet ministers, members of the National Council), geopolitical experts on Afghanistan, political and media analysts, journalists, university professors, representatives in provincial councils (previous government), and mid-level government officials. Finally, after collecting the obtained responses (questionnaires), they were analyzed within the framework of the Q-methodology. Statistical analysis of the findings was performed using the SPSS software.
Results and discussion
Firstly, identifying the geopolitical challenges of Taliban governance on a macro scale
According to the fundamental principles of Guttman scaling, factors with eigenvalues greater than 1 are selected as the primary factors. In this research, for identifying the geopolitical challenges of Taliban governance in Afghanistan from the perspective of political elites on a macro level, the Q-methodology was introduced. The identified mental patterns explain a total of 91.639% of the variance. Specifically, the first mental pattern (Q1) accounts for 26.191% of the variance, the second pattern (Q2) explains 14.924% of the variance, the third pattern (Q3) explains 11.870% of the variance, the fourth pattern (Q4) explains 10.392% of the variance, the fifth pattern (Q5) explains 7.667% of the variance, the sixth pattern (Q6) explains 6.573% of the variance, the seventh pattern (Q7) explains 4.428% of the variance, the eighth pattern (Q8) explains 3.984% of the variance, the tenth pattern (Q10) explains 2.831% of the variance.
In this study, considering the number of identified statements, the factor loading should be greater than 0.462. The principal component analysis yielded 10 factors. Participants with numbers 7, 9, 22, 33, 33, 37, and 39 are categorized under the first mental pattern (Q1). Participants with numbers 4, 5, 6, 10, 14, 20, 33, and 34 are categorized under the second mental pattern (Q2). Participants with numbers 17, 27, 32, and 38 are categorized under the third mental pattern (Q3). Participants with numbers 11, 18, 25, 29, and 36 are categorized under the fourth mental pattern (Q4). Participants with numbers 28 and 40 are categorized under the fifth mental pattern (Q5). Participants with numbers 3, 12, and 15 are categorized under the sixth mental pattern (Q6). Participants with numbers 8, 13, and 31 are categorized under the seventh mental pattern (Q7). Participant number 1 is categorized under the eighth mental pattern (Q8). Participant number 20 is categorized under the ninth mental pattern (Q9). And participant number 2 is categorized under the tenth mental pattern (Q10).
Secondly, desirable strategies for overcoming the challenges of Taliban governance on a macro scale
According to Guttman scaling, factors with eigenvalues greater than 1 are selected as the main factors. In this study, for identifying the strategies to address the geopolitical challenges of Taliban governance in Afghanistan from the perspective of political elites on a macro level, the Q-methodology was introduced. The identified mental patterns explain a total of 94.945% of the variance. Specifically, the first mental pattern (Q1) accounts for 21.651% of the variance, the second pattern (Q2) explains 15.553% of the variance, the third pattern (Q3) explains 12.947% of the variance, the fourth pattern (Q4) explains 10.616% of the variance, the fifth pattern (Q5) explains 8.898% of the variance, the sixth pattern (Q6) explains 7.514% of the variance, the seventh pattern (Q7) explains 6.064% of the variance, the eighth pattern (Q8) explains 4.798% of the variance, the ninth pattern (Q9) explains 3.638% of the variance, and the tenth pattern (Q10) explains 3.266% of the variance.
In this study, considering the number of identified statements, the factor loading should be greater than 0.506. The principal component analysis yielded 10 factors. Participants with numbers 8, 9, 13, 15, 16, 22, 25, 33, and 40 are categorized under the first mental pattern (Q1). Participants with numbers 14, 21, 26, 28, 35, 36, and 38 are categorized under the second mental pattern (Q2). Participants with numbers 6, 18, 23, and 39 are categorized under the third mental pattern (Q3). Participants with numbers 5, 11, 20, 31, 34, and 37 are categorized under the fourth mental pattern (Q4). Participants with numbers 4, 27, and 29 are categorized under the fifth mental pattern (Q5). Participants with numbers 2, 3, 10, and 17 are categorized under the sixth mental pattern (Q6). Participants with numbers 24 and 32 are categorized under the seventh mental pattern (Q7). Participant number 19 is categorized under the eighth mental pattern (Q8). Participants with numbers 1 and 30 are categorized under the ninth mental pattern (Q9).
Conclusions
The most significant challenges to governance in Afghanistan are the territorial-cultural interactions with neighboring countries, conflicting strategies, and interventions by regional powers. The geopolitical position of Afghanistan poses a barrier to effective governance. Therefore, notable strategies include fostering cooperation and collaboration with global states to combat global terrorism, engaging with international human rights, political, and economic institutions, and adopting an active policy of neutrality in international politics at the Afghan level.
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