طراحی مدل سنجش قدرت ملی کشورها (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
قدرت ملی یکی از بحث های مهم و مورد تاکید در بین صاحب نظران جغرافیای سیاسی و روابط بین الملل محسوب می گردد. زیرا عامل اصلی دوام، بقا و پایداری یک سازه سیاسی فضایی یا کشور محسوب می گردد. قدرت ملی از ابعاد گوناگونی تشکیل شده است. در این مقاله با بررسی ادبیات و مبانی نظری، و نیز بهره گیری از نظرات 77 متخصص داخلی و خارجی شاخص های مهم و تاثیرگذار بر وزن ژئوپلیتیکی و قدرت ملی کشورها در ابعاد نه گانه (سرزمینی، اقتصادی، علمی، فرهنگی، اجتماعی، سیاسی، نظامی، فرامرزی و فضایی) احصا شده است. سپس در قالب مدل ریاضی امکان اندازه گیری قدرت ملی مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد که می توان وزن ژئوپلیتیکی و قدرت ملی کشورها را بصورت جمع جبری نقش مثبت و منفی متغیرهای کمی و کیفی در غالب مدل ریاضی و جامع برآورد نمود. همچنین با استفاده از روش بی مقیاس خطی، می توان داده ها را به صورت همتراز درآورد و در ترکیب با یکدیگر قدرت ملی کشورها را مورد سنجش و ارزیابی قرار داد. در این پژوهش مدل سنجش قدرت ملی بصورت پویا ملاحظه شده و با طراحی نرم افزار ویژه، امکان بروزسازی متغیرهای مدل و نیز سنجش سالیانه نظام قدرت جهانی و منطقه ای و بررسی تطبیقی تغییرات نظام قدرت و نیز الگوی توزیع فضایی قدرت جهانی، منطقه ای و ملی فراهم شده است.Designing a Model for Measuring National Power of the States
Introduction
Power is the characteristic of a human being that enables him/her to take action in order to satisfy his/her desires and goals. Different scholars and thinkers have paid close attention to the issue of national power and have examined this issue from various perspectives. For this reason, measuring national power and designing a comprehensive method and model for assessing the national power of countries is one of the most important concerns of experts in the discussion of power. Many experts have examined power, some of which have examined and measured quantitative variables such as GDP, military strength, population size, size, etc. Mathematics has been used to determine the type of relationship between variables. It is obvious that the desired goal cannot be achieved without knowing the works of other scholars. This research aims to provide a comprehensive conceptual model related to the sources of national power that can meet the needs of countries in all different time periods. Therefore, in this study, Hafeznia's nine-component model can be considered as a comprehensive model and research foundation, and the research results can be compiled based on the components of this model. This paper presents a suitable mathematical model and evaluates the national power of the states.
Methodology
At the first stage, theoretical discussions on the concepts of power, national power, foundations and sources of power and methods of calculating power were examined. Data collection at this stage was based on library findings. At the second stage, 80 theoretical models about the principles and sources of power of countries presented by domestic and foreign experts were reviewed. At the third stage, a total of 400 variables and indicators affecting national power were collected. At the fourth stage, variables were collected based on the following four criteria: there are standard and universal data for them; variability of variables or their ability to be converted to quantitative values; existence of important and universal quality variables and variables are available. The above items were evaluated and screened; then, out of a total of 400 variables, 84 variables were removed and the remaining 316 variables were categorized in the form of 9 economic, political, military, social and other dimensions of the national power. The method of factor analysis was used to prioritize and select the best variables in each factor. It should be noted that in selecting the number of suggested variables in each factor, the main criterion was the 50% share of these variables in each factor. In other words, in selecting the number of variables from the proposed variables of the model for each factor, an attempt has been made to select the required number of variables, the necessary and sufficient variables that have the greatest impact on national strength.
Also, for measurement of qualitative variables and indicators affecting national power were collected from the following methods: study of theories about the principles and elements of national power and using the opinions of various experts and thinkers through interviews. Finally, according to the mentioned cases, qualitative variables with positive and negative functions were selected. The values of the variables in this step were qualitative and depended entirely on the opinion of experts. At this stage, we have 21 qualitative variables, for the measurement of each of which different methods and models were considered, which are mentioned below. To examine them, we first look at the three strategies as follows:
A) The first strategy is to use quantitative semantic indicators for qualitative variables using official statistics and international institutions;
B) The second strategy: the use of international indicators made by research centers such as World Bank;
C) The third strategy was to use a questionnaire and expert opinions to convert qualitative data into quantitative data.
Results and Discussion
The difference between the formula and TAPSIS in the final ranking is that TAPSIS considers all factors positively by radical action, while we put that this power is the result of the sum of positive and negative factors. If a country has more negative dimensions and indicators, it will definitely face less and even less negative national power, while more powerful countries that have more positive indicators and variables than negative indicators will show higher weight. One of the differences that can be seen in the ranking and formation of the World Power Pyramid is that today, soft and intelligent power is more important than hard and military power, which is the reason why countries are in this dimensions of power such as cultural, social, political power, etc., they have been more successful and have a higher weight. In the final ranking, they have a higher weight than the countries that have acted weaker in these dimensions. Thus, it can be said that the world and countries are turning to the use of soft power on a large scale. This can be clearly seen in the region of Western Europe and Scandinavia. Switzerland, Norway, Finland, the Netherlands, etc. were able to gain more weight in terms of cultural, social, and political power than other countries, and this factor caused them to gain more weight in terms of the nine components. Some countries have a relatively high weight in terms of military and territorial power, this is in fact due to the situation in the Middle East, which has strengthened the military and defense dimension of the countries in the region, and in fact this region will become a warehouse for gunpowder and military weapons, so it can be rightly said that having only military power and strong mineral resources is not generally powerful in the current arena. Therefore, it can be said that in near future, countries that are more successful in discussing cultural diplomacy will enjoy national power. As a result, it can be said that the international system of the world is undergoing constant changes and upheavals, from hard to soft power and intelligent power, which can be rightly seen in the pyramid of world power. In the future, the powerful country will no longer is a country that has higher military and hard power, but is a country that has higher intelligence and soft power.
Conclusions
This paper aimed to provide a comprehensive model to measure the national power of the countries that are of great importance in geopolitical weight. Therefore, the inclusion of these variables is very important. On the other hand, in many models, qualitative variables have not been studied and evaluated. However, attempts were made to use three main strategies to use qualitative indicators. In this model, an attempt was made to use linear scaling method as well as four quantification methods such as Morris index, percentage share, contractual and self-digit indicators. The desired variables were combined and evaluated. Various techniques such as Dimtel were also used to examine the model. In this way, the national power of countries can be measured and evaluated in different dimensions in relation to each other and in a systematic way. Finally, the mathematical model in question was extracted according to the rules of performance evaluation of this type of variables and the model was evaluated through this formula.
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