تبیین ژئواکونومیک امکان سنجی خام فروشی منابع نفت و گاز در حکمرانی پیشرفت کشور (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
خام فروشی در کشورهای نفت خیز از مسائل اساسی آنهاست. در این میان، ایران یکی از کشورهایی است که از این مساله رنج می برد. به نحوی که در اسناد بالادستی بر توقف صادرات نفت خام تاکید دارد. در پیش نویس سند الگوی اسلامی ایرانی پیشرفت هم به عنوان سند فرادستی کلیه اسناد سیاست گذاری کشور به کاهش مستمر صادرات مواد خام و جایگزینی آن با زنجیره ای از تولید ارزش افزوده تاکید شده است. با این فرض به بررسی این موضوع با بهره گیری از تجربیات جهانی به روش اسنادی پرداخته شده است تا با برگزیدن رویکردی مناسب برای تحقق تدبیر سند الگو نائل آمد. نتایج پژوهش نشان می دهد با توجه به موقعیت ژئوپلیتیک و قابلیت های ژئواکونومیک انرژی کشور، رویکرد توسعه و تکمیل زنجیره ارزش نفت و گاز، رویکردی ضروری، راهبردی و آینده نگرانه برای حکمرانی پیشرفت کشور است که تحقق این مهم، مستلزم برگزیدن رویکرد تلفیقی و ساخت پتروپالایشگاه هاست که با اتکاء فناوری های پیشرفته، می تواند زمینه کاهش مستمر خام فروشی را فراهم کندGeoeconomic Explanation of the Feasibility Study of Selling Crude Oil and Gas Resources in the Governance of the Country's Progress
Introduction
Selling crude oil in oil rich countries is one of the basic issues in these countries. In the meantime, Iran is one of the oil rich countries that suffers from this problem. In such a way that stopping the export of crude oil has always been one of the challenges of governance and it has been emphasized in the upstream documents and plans. In the draft document of the Iranian Islamic model of progress, it is emphasized as a document of all the country's policy documents in a sterategy to continuously reduce the export of raw materials and replace it with a chain of value-added production. With this assumption, the investigation of this issue and the use of global experiences have been done in a documented way, so that by choosing an approach that is appropriate to the geo-economic situation of Iran, in order to realize sterategy number 22 of the Iranian Islamic Model document, progress can be made in the direction of the continuous reduction of the sale of raw materials.
Methodology
This paper is analytic-descriptive research in nature and applied research in terms of purpose, and its data and information are collected from a library and using written sources including books and articles, documents, statistics and related websites.
Results and findings
Iran has 163.1 billion barrels of oil, and 33.5 trillion cubic meters natural gas. Iran's daily production of oil, gas and gas condensate is about 4 million barrels, 850 million cubic meters and 750 thousand barrels respectively in 2015, and the amount of gas injection has reached more than 77 million cubic meters per day. On average, 50% of the country's general budget is dependent on oil, and more than 70% of the country's foreign exchange needs are provided through oil. Apart from this, the share of the oil sector in the GDP during the last 20 years has averaged nearly 16%. With 10 refineries, Iran ranks 10th among refining countries in the world and second in the Middle East and North Africa after Saudi Arabia, and in 2017, the petrochemical industry accounted for 2.4% of the world's petrochemical production and 22.5% of the Middle East's production with a nominal capacity of 64 million tons. 53.3 million tons have been produced in Iran per year.
Discussion
The dominant and main approaches of the world from a strategic point of view in dealing with energy can be "energy as an input (fuel) of economic activities" like most of the Persian Gulf countries, "energy as a raw material and value chain feed" like the countries of China and Singapore, "Energy as a driver of industry" like Germany, "Energy as a provider of foreign exchange income" like Norway and "Energy as a tool of diplomacy and international security". If the oil and gas value chain is made up of four links "exploration and production," "refining," "petrochemical" and "petrochemical downstream industries, including polymer industries and chemical industries" are formed, different countries have chosen their strategies according to their internal conditions and requirements.
Natural resources and energy, especially oil and gas, have always been considered in the upstream documents, and emphasis has been placed on preventing and stopping the sale of crude oil and increasing the production of petroleum products, as well as the development of downstream oil and gas industries. In addition to the constitution and the visionary document of 1404 as the basic documents of the country's progress in all fields, the general policies of the system in the fields and development programs related to oil and energy and their optimal management in the direction of progress has paid attention this issue. In this regard, in the document of the Iranian Islamic model of progress, it is emphasized that the realization of this important issue requires: 1. an integrated approach in the management and ownership of the refining and petrochemical industries, 2. the development of the oil and gas value chain by relying on advanced technologies.
Conclusions
Considering the evaluation of Iran's internal conditions and requirements and staying safe from the bad economic, social and political effects of selling crude oil and gas and paying attention to the geo-economic position of Iran's energy as well as the emphasis of the country's upstream documents, the approach of developing and completing the oil and gas value chain to the place of selling crude oil from the beginning to the end of the chain is a necessary, strategic and forward-looking approach for the governance of the country's energy economy, looking at global experiences, which by preventing the continuous reduction of crude oil and gas sales, it is possible to reach a correct definition of benefiting from oil resources in the governance of the country's economy. Therefore, it is necessary to look at and use the energy governance activity of the country as a relative advantage of Iran's economy in a coordinated and prioritized field. This is the same approach that is pointed out and prescribed in the Iranian Islamic model of progress in a conscious plan, and it is one of the effective ways for the country to achieve progress on the horizon of the document. Achieving this important while paying attention to Iran's geopolitical position requires choosing a unified approach in the management and ownership of the refining and petrochemical industry and turning to the construction of petrochemical refineries, which can lead to provide a continuous reduction in the sale of crude oil by relying on advanced technologies to upgrade and complete the value chain.
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