جایگاه ابتکار عمل «کمربند و راه» در دگرگونی های راهبرد و سیاست های کلان چین (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
پیدایش چین به عنوان قدرت بزرگ اقتصادی، گمانه زنی های سیاسی و آکادمیک بسیاری را در حوزه هژمون شدن این کشور در آینده به وجود آورده است. در این زمینه تلاش شد تا به سه پرسش زیر پاسخ داده شود: 1. با روی کار آمدن شی جین پینگ چه دگرگونی هایی در راهبردهای کلان چین نمودار شده است؟ 2. چه عواملی به بروز این دگرگونی ها منجر شده اند؟ 3. چگونه این تأثیرگذاری پدید آمده است؟ با استفاده از تحلیل مفهومی کیفی اسناد راهبردی دولتی و بیانیه های مقامات بلندپایه چین، افزون بر بررسی دیدگاه های نظریه پردازان و کارشناسان، تغییر راهبردی در رویکردهای بین المللی چین در چارچوب نظری واقع گرایی نوکلاسیک مبتنی بر ترکیبی از تأثیر عوامل سطوح داخلی و بین المللی بر سیاستگذاری های این کشور تبیین خواهد شد. در فرضیه پژوهش بیان می شود که رویکرد متفاوت شی جین پینگ در تصمیم سازی های کلان سیاسی، به تغییر راهبردی مبتنی بر پیگیری اهداف سیاسی- امنیتی توأم با منافع اقتصادی در سطح بین المللی برای چین منجر شده است، و ابتکار عمل «کمربند و راه» مهم ترین نشانه این تغییر راهبردی به شمار می آید. دستیابی به موقعیت هژمونیک از راه صلح آمیزی در کنار دستاوردهای گسترده اقتصادی و امنیتی برای چین، از مهم ترین نتایج اجرایی شدن این ابتکار است. براساس یافته های پژوهش، رویکرد متفاوت شی جین پینگ در تصمیم سازی های کلان سیاسی چین، ناشی از شرایط کنونی حاکم بر ساختار نظام بین الملل با رهبری ایالات متحده امریکا بوده و این مسئله به تغییری راهبردی مبتنی بر پیگیری اهداف سیاسی- امنیتی توأم با منافع اقتصادی در سطح بین المللی برای چین منجر شده است. ابتکار عمل «کمربند و راه» مهم ترین نشانه این دگرگونی راهبردی است.The Position of the Belt and Road Initiative in the Changes of China's Macro Strategy and Policies
The emergence of China as a rising economic power has created a lot of political and academic speculations about its hegemony in the international system in the future. What China had been pursuing until a decade ago was a kind of global political-security inaction and mere pursuit of economic development plans. However, its leaders have progressively realized that pursuing purely economic goals would leave the maintenance of the security of the world's sensitive economic corridors to the United States. Accordingly, such attitude might impede the achievement of China's important economic goals. Maintaining peace and stability in strategically valuable regions, including the Middle East and Central Asia (MECA), is crucial for China in order to maintain and expand its access to international markets, and even capital markets. Military adventures in the MECA region have greatly benefited the United States, while maintaining the security of energy transfer from this region to China is considered crucial for the continuation of Chinese industrialization and exports of its manufactured goods. Given this reality, it seemed that a change in China's strategy was necessary. Governments often react differently to similar systematic pressures and opportunities —these reactions are influenced by systemic factors at the domestic level. Hence, domestic political risks associated with the choice of certain foreign policies and the risk-taking propensities of national elites— which are in turn influenced by a set of preferences and perceptions of the elites of the internal and external environments— have a great impact on the policy-making process. It is clear that the worldviews and preferences of the Chinese elites have affected Chinese foreign policymaking. Their preferences which are influenced by domestic needs and systemic pressures in different time periods have led to different policies formulated and implemented by the leadership in China. A variety of approaches, ranging from Mao's revisionist tendencies to Deng Xiaoping's acceptance of the existing international order have been considered throughout the years. Although the acceptance of the existing order has become a key component of China's foreign policy since Deng, it seems that this acceptance is being pursued by using different tactics during the Xi Jinping era. Xi's foreign policy seems more assertive and effective than that of former Chinese President Hu Jintao. While Hu tended to highlight the policies of ‘peaceful rise’, ‘peaceful development’ and ‘scientific development’ in his grand strategy, Xi has distinguished himself by emphasizing nationalism and using the slogan of the Chinese dream. Xi Jinping's emphasis on the merits of patriotism show the current and deep-seated dissatisfaction of the current Chinese leader with the existing international order. The politically and economically-motivated Belt and Road Initiative should be considered as the central grand plan proposed by Xi, who is probably the strongest political figure in China after Deng Xiaoping. This project is guided by a new foreign and security policy, aimed at achieving global hegemony, and replacing the US as the dominant power in the international system. In this paper, an attempt was made to answer the following three questions: 1. What changes have occurred in China's grand strategy and policies since Xi Jinping came into power? 2. What factors have led to these changes? 3. How did these factors affected strategic changes in Chinese policies? By using qualitative conceptual analysis of government strategic documents and statements of high-ranking officials of China, in addition to examining the viewpoints of theorists and experts, significant changes in China's foreign policies within the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism are studied. The policies of this Asian country which are influenced by a set of domestic and international factors will be explained. In the research hypothesis, it is claimed that Xi Jinping's different approach to macro-political decision-making has led to a strategic change in Chinese foreign policy due to the pursuit of political-security goals as well as economic ones at the international level. The "Belt and Road" initiative is the most important sign of this strategic change. Achieving a hegemonic power position by peaceful means, in addition to extensive economic and security achievements for China is one of the most important results of the implementation of this initiative. The findings of the research show that Xi Jinping's different approach to the country’s decision-making was caused by the current conditions governing the structure of the international system which is under the US leadership; and this has led to a strategic change in Beijing policies in pursuit of political and security goals. The "Belt and Road" initiative is the most obvious and important sign of this strategic transformation.
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