جنگ های شبکه ای و بازدارندگی: مطالعه موردی جمهوری اسلامی ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
تحول جنگ ها و شکل گیری گونه ای جدید از آن با عنوان جنگ های شبکه ای و نحوه بازدارندگی در برابر آن، تبدیل به دغدغه ای اساسی در میان کشورها شده است، اما ادبیات روابط بین الملل نسبت به این وضعیت پاسخگو نبوده یا پاسخ مناسبی ارائه نداده است. پرسش این است که بازدارندگی در برابر جنگ های شبکه ای چگونه خواهد بود؟ در پاسخ به پرسش اصلی، فرضیه مقاله این که بازدارندگی شبکه ای با تمرکز بر معادله قدرت متمرکز تهدید، با عنوان بازدارندگی شبکه ای تمرکزگرا، ابزاری کارآمد در برابر جنگ های شبکه ای محسوب می شود. برای بررسی این فرضیه از روش ابداکشن در قالب نظریه پیچیدگی آشوب بهره گرفته می شود. در این پژوهش، رفتار سیستم بین الملل در قالب سیستم های انطباقی پیچیده باز گفت می شود و با توجه به تغییر شکل نظم به نظم شاخه ای و دگرگونی های ایجاد شده به تبع آن، بازدارندگی شبکه ای تمرکزگرا به عنوان نمونه ای نوآورانه از موج ششم بازدارندگی مدل سازی می شود و کارآمدی آن در وضعیت کنونی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در شبکه منطقه ای غرب آسیا مورد بررسی قرار می گیرد.Networked Wars and Deterrence, Case Study: Islamic Republic of Iran
IntroductionDeterrence is a system of conflict control in the international system that has undergone fundamental changes since the beginning of the Cold War. Following the 9/11 attacks and during the age of chaos, modern wars do erupt and affect all levels of interaction between actors. In this context, deterrence has lost its classical conceptualization and has become ambiguous and dysfunctional. The international system increasingly tends to behave like a complex adaptive system. Even the function of power dynamics in shaping conflict control systems seems to have transformed. Therefore, there is a need to develop a new deterrence model as a control system for modern warfare as one of the emerging phenomena in the international system. In this respect, the new generation of power dynamics possesses unique features and plays a fundamental role in the age of chaos. The present article aimed to answer the question of how networked wars impact deterrence in general and particularly in the context of the Islamic Republic of Iran. It intended to develop an appropriate deterrence model for controlling networked wars as the fourth generation of warfare within the chaotic–complex international system. To meet this objective, the study proposed intensive networked deterrence as an effective model for controlling networked wars.Literature ReviewThe extensive literature on the topic can be categorized into four groups. The first group deals with the transformation of warfare in the chaotic–complex international system (e.g., Arquilla & Ronfeldt, 2001; Freedman, 2017; Henrotin, 2016; Krieg & Rickli, 2019; Levy & Thompson, 2011; Lind & Thiele, 2015; Moffat, 2003). The second group of studies examines deterrence and its evolution (e.g., Freedman, 2004; Kaufmann, 1954; Quackenbush, 2011; Snyder, 1960). Knopf (2010) recognized four waves in the evolution of deterrence from the beginning to the end of the Cold War. In addition, Prior et al. (2018) explain how the fifth wave, termed resilience deterrence, controls modern wars, and Ghasemi (2021) has introduced the sixth wave, called nonlinear deterrence. The third group of studies is concerned with the relationship between deterrence and modern wars (e.g., Kello, 2017; Sutherland, 2011; Whyte et al., 2020). Finally, the fourth group focuses on deterrence in the case of the Islamic Republic of Iran (Ghasemi, 2007, 2021, 2022; Gunzinger & Dougherty, 2011; Hicks & Dalton, 2017; Krepinevich et al., 2003). Despite the extensive research, the issue of networked wars remains underexplored in the literature on deterrence methods. This gap is particularly relevant for actors like the Islamic Republic of Iran, given its unique geopolitical situation. The present study aimed to address this gap by innovatively designing a new deterrence model specific to the case of the Islamic Republic of Iran.Materials and MethodsGiven the uncertainty and emergent nature of the subject, the study relied on abductive reasoning to answer the research question. The process consisted of four steps. First, the emergent phenomena were explored and interpreted. Second, the deductive reasoning was used to conceptualize and theorize. Third, the inductive reasoning was used to conduct a case study investigation, followed by testing the validity and theoretical inferences through both inductive and deductive reasoning. This approach could provide the best explanation for the behavior of the complex international system as a complex adaptive system in the age of chaos, ultimately shaping the most functional deterrence model to control networked wars.Results and DiscussionThe study modeled the so-called intensive networked deterrence as a subdivision of the sixth wave of deterrence theory. The analysis also examined its impact on the current status of the Islamic Republic of Iran within the regional network of West Asia. Having introduced new concepts such as networked wars and intensive networked deterrence, the article explained how networked wars can be controlled by intensive networked deterrence, applied by the holder of intensive power. It examined how power dynamics within the chaotic–complex international system affect the control of modern wars and shape intensive networked deterrence. This kind of deterrence is an instrument used by those with intensive power at regional or international levels to create a threat equation through a cascading failure process. Considering the transformation of the international order from structural stability to bifurcated order, it is the holder of intensive power, rather than the holder of extensive power, that determines the structure and shape of the control system and create the threat equation. As the discussion made clear, intensive networked deterrence can be applied to the case of the Islamic Republic of Iran as a holder of intensive power within the regional network of West Asia. The hypothesis was tested using historical events involving the Islamic Republic of Iran, particularly from 2016 to 2023. To apply intensive networked deterrence to the Islamic Republic of Iran, specific requirements were pointed out, and several policies and actions were recommended. ConclusionIntensive networked deterrence is characterized by a multilayered structure with overlapping strategies resulting from the fluidity of threats. It relies on deterrence functions based on cascading failure processes, rolling feedback mechanisms, and broader communications within international or regional networks. This approach is marked by interactions and uncertainty at all levels. Intensive networked deterrence can effectively control networked wars, which have the potential to erupt at geopolitical, geoeconomic, geocultural, and geocyber levels. It underscores the importance of technology and modern knowledge in waging war, achieving final objectives, and targeting infrastructures, with a significant overlap of political and social environments. In an age of chaos and the second phase of the fourth generation of warfare, intensive networked deterrence can be employed by the holder of intensive power, such as the Islamic Republic of Iran within the regional network of West Asia.
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