جایگاه باخترگرایی در رفتار راهبردی چین؛ بررسی موردی عربستان سعودی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
با گسترش توجه ایالات متحده به سمت شرق در تلاش برای مهار چین، پکن عمق بیشتری به سیاست متنوع سازی روابط خود داده تا بتواند آثار منفی تمرکز ایالات متحده بر شرق آسیا را تقلیل دهد. بخشی از این متنوع سازی معطوف به استراتژی باخترگرایی یا تمرکز بر غرب آسیا است. در میان کشورهای غرب آسیا، گسترش روابط چین با عربستان سعودی به دلیل نقش مهم در بازار انرژی و تاثیرگذاری بر طیف وسیعی از دولت های اسلامی و عربی، نمونه خوبی برای استراتژی باخترگرایی چین است. در این راستا، پرسش اصلی این است که باخترگرایی چه جایگاهی در رفتار راهبردی چین دارد و جایگاه عربستان سعودی در این استراتژی کجاست؟ یافته های پژوهش نشان می دهد که با توجه به وضعیت توزیع قدرت در نظام بین الملل و ایجاد فرصت های جدید در حوزه های نیاز به منابع انرژی، مقابله با گسترش نفوذ ایالات متحده و ابتکاراتی نظیر جاده ابریشم نوین، جایگاه استراتژی باخترگرایی در رفتار راهبردی چین تقویت شده و در این استراتژی، عربستان سعودی جایگاه کلیدی دارد. مقاله با استفاده از روش تحقیق تاریخی و تبیینی انجام شده است.Look West in China’s Foreign Policy: The Case of Saudi Arabia
Introduction The diminished concentration of U.S. power within the international system and the ascension of emerging powers have decreased the structural pressure of international system on regional powers to limit their presence in other regions. This has accelerated the movement of governments like China towards the areas that are traditionally under the U.S. influence, such as West Asia and Latin America. Since the 1990s, China has established extensive relations with countries in West Asia. The present study aimed to explore the expansion of China–Saudi Arabia relations in light of China’s Look West policy, trying to answer the following questions: What role does Look West play in China’s foreign policy? And how does Saudi Arabia fit into China’s Look West policy? This research distinguishes itself from existing literature by offering a comprehensive analysis of China’s Look West policy, specifically focusing on the expansion of China’s relations with Saudi Arabia.Materials and MethodsThe study adopted a descriptive–analytical approach and an explanatory method to elucidate how the structure of the international system influences the behavior of states.Theoretical FrameworkNeorealism or structural realism was used to enhance the explanatory power in addressing how the structure of the international system influences foreign relations and behavioral priorities of countries. The structure of the international system is regarded as the foremost and pivotal variable in the paradigm of structural realism. This encompasses a specific conception of structure and its related components. First, structural realism considers anarchy as the enduring feature of the international system, which is even immune to shifts in power concentration. Moreover, the distribution of capabilities or the polarity of the system significantly shapes the behavior of states. Therefore, neorealism refers to the distribution of power within the international system as one of the most influential variables in shaping the behavior of states. In this light, the analysis of China’s behavior, as a prominent emerging power, requires the examination of the role of America as a key pole in the international system. For instance, China’s pursuit of Go West strategy, as a competitive policy, is understood as a response to the prevailing polarity within the international system. Results and DiscussionSystemic Change in the International System and China’s Look West PolicyThe diminished concentration of U.S. power and the ascension of other major powers promise a more diversity in the polarity of the international system, as reinforced and evidenced by the rise of China and the increasing role of Asia in global affairs. This trend has elevated China to the status of the most important emerging power, ushering in a period of systemic change characterized by a shift in polarity within the international order. Over the past decade, this transformation has emerged as one of the most significant and influential determinants shaping the foreign policies of world states. Indeed, it has presented regional powers with increased opportunities to extend their influence into other regions. From this vantage point, China is increasingly inclined towards expanding its presence across various regions worldwide, including the West. This inclination can be captured by the term Look West, denoting a focus on the West in general. In a narrower sense, the West encompasses regions such as the Middle East and notably the Persian Gulf. Based on the Look West policy, rebalancing China’s foreign policy during the period of systemic change within the international system can be attributed to the following reasons:Intensification of Strategic Competition with the U.S. in China’s PeripheryThe U.S. efforts to increase its presence in China’s periphery have prompted China to shift its focus to other regions of the world, particularly West Asia, aiming to establish a strategic space and foothold. China perceives that America is withdrawing from certain regions of the world, which is likely to diminish the U.S. involvement and influence.China’s Energy NeedsThe change in the polarity of the international system has led to changes in perspectives regarding global energy supply. This shift has opened up opportunities for China to play a more active role in energy supply centers worldwide, particularly in the Middle East. One significant aspect of China’s presence in the Middle East is the strengthening of bilateral relations with countries in the region, notably with the member states of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council, such as Saudi Arabia.China’s Belt and Road InitiativeThe changes within the international system have influenced the foreign policy of world states, paving the way for the enhancement of relations between different states, particularly with those in the Global South. In this context, China, with a longstanding history of fostering unique patterns in its relations with southern countries, has identified an opportune environment for launching new initiatives, foremost among them being the One Belt, One Road or Belt and Road Initiative (also referred to as the New Silk Road).Challenges of China’s Look West PolicyCompetition between Iran and Saudi ArabiaSince the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, Saudi Arabia has been wary of Iran and its regional policies. It is thus not surprising that China’s close relationship with Iran would raise concerns in Saudi Arabia. As the influence of the U.S. diminishes in the region, China finds itself with increased opportunities to play a significant role in regulating relations between the Persian Gulf states. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia have welcomed China’s mediation efforts to mitigate their differences, which culminated in the 2023 Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore relations and reduce tensions.The United States of AmericaCurrently, America continues to wield considerable influence in West Asia. Despite the tensions between Washington and Riyadh, America remains Saudi Arabia’s most crucial partner, which in turn gets Washington to exert pressure on Riyadh to deter any significant expansion of China–Saudi relations.ConclusionThe present study examined the development and expansion of relations between China and Saudi Arabia within the context of China’s Look West or Go West strategy. The research findings suggested that Look West policy has increasingly become an integral strategy of China’s foreign policy, driven by dynamics of power distribution within the international system, emerging opportunities in energy resource markets, efforts to counteract the U.S. influence, and initiatives such as the New Silk Road. Moreover, Saudi Arabia occupies a pivotal position within China’s Look West paradigm. The structure of the international system and the post-Cold War distribution of power (polarity) are pivotal factors shaping China’s approach to the Middle East. A competitive aspect of China’s policy, Look West or Go West strategy involves strengthening ties with countries geographically situated to the West. This strategy serves as a means to break free from the strategic deadlock with the U.S. in East Asia. Nevertheless, China’s overarching objective extends beyond this; it seeks to replace the U.S. and increase its presence in other regions, thereby diminishing American influence while broadening its own sphere of influence. China pursues this goal by continually increasing its economic interactions with the Middle East, fostering amicable relations with all countries therein, and avoiding policies that directly challenge American interests in the Middle East.
تبلیغات
