تحلیلی بر عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر توسعه پایدار منطقه ای مکران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
مکان های زیستی مختلف به اقتضای ماهیت و کارکردشان استراتژی های مختلفی را برای رسیدن به هدف در نظر می گیرند؛ هدف نهایی تمام این استراتژی ها رسیدن به توسعه پایدار می باشد. رسیدن به توسعه در ادوار مختلف همواره مدنظر دولت ها، حکومت ها و مردمانی که در قالب شهروند و شهرنشین به ایفای نقش می پرداخته اند؛ بوده است. هدف اصلی توسعه حذف نابرابری هاست، بهترین مفهوم توسعه، رشد همراه با عدالت اجتماعی است. مفهوم توسعه تداوم رشد اقتصادی، رشد سریع و ممتد سرانه واقعی، همگام با پیشرفت جامعه است. باتوجه به هدف پژوهش که براین اساس هدف پژوهش تحلیل عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر توسعه پایدار منطقه ای مکران است، پژوهش حاضر با بهره گیری از روش تحقیق توصیفی - تحلیلی و بر اساس روش های علم آینده پژوهی با ترکیبی از روش های اسنادی و پیمایشی صورت گرفته است. در پژوهش حاضر برای شناسایی متغیرهای اولیه مؤثر بر توسعه پایدار منطقه ای مکران پس از مطالعه اسناد بالادستی در حوزه های مختلف از روش دلفی دومرحله ای استفاده شده است. پژوهش با استفاده از 36 متغیر در قالب 8 حوزه به عنوان متغیرهای اولیه مؤثر بر توسعه پایدار منطقه ای مکران انتخاب گردید. یافته ها نشان می دهد، باتوجه به وجود 36 متغیر اصلی تأثیرگذار بر توسعه یافتگی مکران، ابعاد ماتریس 36×36 می باشد. تعداد تکرار دو بار در نظر گرفته شده است و درجه پرشدگی 60.88% است که بیانگر پراکندگی متغیرهای مؤثر بر توسعه یافتگی مکران می باشد. نتایج بیانگر این است، وضعیت توسعه منطقه ای مکران تا حد بسیار زیادی ناشی از بخش های کلان مدیریتی، سیاست گذاری، اجتماعی و اقتصادی است. در واقع تا زمانی که تحولات اساسی در ساختار اقتصادی و مدیریتی منطقه مکران به وجود نیاید و قدرت اقتصادی لازم و تحولات مدیریتی مؤثر صورت نگیرد امکان بهبود در وضعیت توسعه منطقه ای مکران ناممکن می باشد.An analysis of the key factors affecting the sustainable regional development of Makran.
Extended AbstractIntroductionDifferent biological places consider different strategies to reach the goal according to their nature and function; The ultimate goal of all these strategies is to achieve sustainable development. Achieving development in different eras has always been considered by governments, governments and people who have played a role in the form of citizens and urban dwellers; have been. For this purpose, the Regional Development Strategy (RDS) is one of the models that has been popular in some countries of the world, such as the member states of the European Union and other emerging economic regions of the world since the 1990s. Recognizing this policy and planning model can be considered a small step but a new path for the discussion of experience and action in regional planning. In fact, with the intensification of economic globalization and competition between governments and government-regions, according to Kinchi Omai, regional issues have become more complicated, and the sustainability of regional development has become more important. Therefore, not only in the new world order, geographical territories have been associated with regionalism; Moreover, neo-regionalism has taken a dominant form in the planning system. The reason for the attention and emphasis on the Regional Development Strategy (RDS) is that the continuity and non-separation in this strategy makes the regions to be seen as puzzle pieces that should be put together in the best way and to cover the weaknesses of each other. Regions are placed on a wide level, which can be considered stable only in the absence of centralization. In other words, one of the most important results and fruits of the application of the Regional Development Strategy (RDS) is to disrupt the existing centralism and replace it with decentralization and, consequently, to deal with economic, social, political, cultural, security, etc. challenges. Because today decentralization is considered as a strategy for sustainable development and unlike the state of concentration where power and decision-making is concentrated in the center or at the level of high-level officials, decentralization allows lower levels to deal with issues and problems that are specific to them and directly deal with them. pay attention. MethodologyConsidering the purpose of the research, which is an analysis of the capacity and formulation of Makran's regional sustainable development program with a futurist approach, the present research was conducted using the descriptive-analytical research method and based on the methods of futurist science with a combination of documentary and survey methods. The current research has four main parts. The part of compiling the theoretical foundations, which was selected as the first step of the qualitative research, in the second part, the factors and trends affecting the development of Makran region were investigated with the survey method. In the third part, based on the identified factors and trends and the opinions of experts based on the method of cross-effects analysis, the analysis of stakeholders and actors, as well as the extraction and analysis of the key factors of the region's development, and based on the critical uncertainty method, scenarios have been formulated. In the fourth step, the application of content concepts and strategic foresight methods in developing the proposed regional development planning process has been discussed. The statistical population in this research was 50 experts, experts in the field of urban planning and land use. A researcher-made questionnaire tool was used to collect the required data, and experts' opinions were used for standardization. In the results analysis stage, calculations were done by MICMAC software. findings Based on the obtained results, the variable of economic growth has the most direct and indirect influence and the variable of access to green space has the least influence and direct and indirect influence. The most important output of the MICMAC software is in the form of a diagram of influence and effectiveness of variables.Results and Discussion Results and DiscussionWhat can be understood from the dispersion of variables affecting the development of Makran is the unstable state of the system, because most of the variables are scattered around the diagonal axis of the plane, and except for a few limited factors influencing the system, the rest of the variables have a relatively similar situation to each other. Now, according to the unstable distribution of variables affecting the development of Makran, 4 categories of variables (bimodal variables, influential variables, regulatory variables, independent variables and dependent variables) can be identified, which are shown in Table 6. According to the obtained results, among 36 variables affecting the development of Makran, 11 variables were identified as strategic and key variables affecting the development of Makran. Finally, the matrices obtained from the output of the software can be displayed with its corresponding diagram, in which the direction of influence of each driver on the other is displayed by arrows and the amount of influence is displayed numerically above the arrow.ConclusionMakran is the land of unfulfilled potentials and golden opportunities. The potential capacities due to the strategic location of this region among Iran's neighboring countries on one level, in the Middle East on the second level, in Asia on the third level and the whole world on the fourth level, provide golden opportunities for the people of this region in the first stage, for Iran in The second stage has created a win-win game for the international field in the final stage. The aim of the research is to analyze and identify the key factors affecting the sustainable development of Makran region. After document studies in Makran region, in the next stage, the development of Makran region was examined and evaluated using 36 variables in the form of 8 regions. The results obtained from the present research show the status of regional development variables in a state of normality. FundingThere is no funding support. Authors’ ContributionAll of the authors approved the content ofthe manuscript and agreed on all aspects ofthe work. Conflict of InterestAuthors declared no conflict of interest. AcknowledgmentsWe are grateful to all the scientificconsultants of this paper.
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