آینده پژوهی روندهای تاثیرگذار بر توسعه گردشگری ایران در دوران پساکرونا (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
پیچیدگی، تغییرات پیوسته، عدم قطعیت و چند بعدی بودن فضا از این واقعیت حکایت دارد که دست اندرکاران گردشگری می بایست برنامه ریزی این صنعت را در افق های دورتری دنبال کنند؛ اهمیت مطالعات آینده پژوهانه در حوزه گردشگری و لزوم بازیابی صنعت گردشگری کشور در ایام پساکرونا محققان را بر آن داشت تا به شناسایی و تحلیل روندهای تاثیرگذار بر توسعه گردشگری ایران در یک افق 10 ساله بپردازند؛ تحقیق پیش رو کاربردی، تحلیلی، کیفی کمی و از حیث نگرش زمانی آینده نگرانه خواهد بود؛ گردآوری اطلاعات این پژوهش به صورت کتابخانه ای و مبتنی بر کتب، مقالات، پایان نامه ها و دیگر منابع داخلی و خارجی بوده و گردآوری اطلاعات میدانی پژوهش به کمک خبرگان صورت گرفته است؛ نهایتا تحلیل داده های گردآوری شده در نرم افزار میک مک دنبال شده است؛ طبق یافته های پژوهش افزایش شکاف اقتصادی بین مردم، افزایش تحریم های بین المللی، افزایش روابط سیاسی با کشورهای اسلامی، افزایش تبلیغات سوء و وارونه جلوه دادن وقایع کشور، افزایش سهم بخش خصوصی در اقتصاد گردشگری، طولانی بودن فرایند بروکراتیک در حوزه کارآفرینی، افزایش تقاضای سفر با پایان همه گیری کرونا، بازیابی محیط ناشی از کاهش سفرها در عصر کرونا، افزایش استفاده مردم از موبایل های هوشمند، افزایش نقش بلاگرهای اینستاگرامی در تبلیغ مقاصد، تخریب محیط زیست و ساخت خانه های دوم، افزایش کنفرانس ها و سمینارهای علمی، کاهش حس میهن دوستی ناشی از فشارهای زندگی و تقویت ارتباط صنعت و دانشگاه از جمله روندهایی بودند که از حیث تاثیرگذاری بر دیگر روندها و تاثیرپذیری از آن ها برجسته ترین نقش را در توسعه گردشگری ایران در دوران پساکرونا ایفا می کنند؛ نهایتا متناسب با یافته ها جهت بهبود روند توسعه گردشگری کشور در دوران پس از کرونا راهکارهایی ارائه گردید.Future Studies of trends affecting the development of tourism in Iran in the Post-Corona era
Future Studies of trends affecting the development of tourism in Iran in the Post-Corona eraExtended AbstractIntroduction:It seems that in the 21st century, with the emergence of new events, policymakers in various fields, including tourism, must go beyond the present and pursue tourism planning on a longer horizon. The importance of futuristic studies in the field of tourism becomes better when we understand that in the absence of such studies, the position of planners is reactive and they can not plan an event until it is formed in the future; Future research, on the other hand, as a tool for recognizing and constructing the future, shifts policymakers from the issue of reaction to action and enables them to plan for a crisis before it forms. In a country like Iran, where tourism has not developed enough, proper planning, policy-making and looking to the future are very effective and facilitate the development of development visions; In summary, Iran's high potential in the field of tourism, high flexibility of this industry and the impact of various events such as Covid 19 and the benefits of using future-research studies in the tourism industry, this study aims to identify trends affecting the development of tourism in Iran in the post-Corona era. Under the Steep-v model, the main research questions can be presented as follows:- What are the social trends affecting the tourism in Iran in the post-Corona era?- What are the technological trends affecting the tourism in Iran in the post-Corona era?- What are the economic trends affecting the tourism in Iran in the post-Corona era?- What are the environmental trends affecting the tourism in Iran in the post-Corona era?- What are the political trends affecting the tourism in Iran in the post Corona era?- What are the value trends affecting the tourism in Iran in the post Corona era?- How will each of these trends affect the tourism in Iran in the post Corona era?Methodology:The present research is applied in terms of purpose, descriptive in terms of method and qualitative-quantitative in terms of the data used; In this research, the statistical population is experts in futures, research and tourism, and information has been collected through documentary and field methods; Since similar studies, 5 to 15 people have selected the statistical sample In this research, in the two main stages of the research, a total of 40 people were selected as a statistical sample The sensitivity of futuristic studies has led the researcher to use the snowball method in selecting sample members; In this method, future members of the sample are selected through former members of the sample, and the sample becomes larger and larger like a snowball. The validity of the questionnaire has been confirmed by experts and finally the analysis of research data has been done in Mikmak software.Results and discussion:What can be clearly deduced from the distribution of trends in the graph of direct effects is that the Iranian tourism system Iran tourism in the post-Corona era is stable and it is well possible to determine the position of each trend in each part of the graph.Most effective and most influential: spreading individualism and reducing the desire to participate in society, increasing political relations with Islamic countries, increasing scientific conferences and seminars, increasing the use of credit cards instead of cash, increasing the share of the private sector in tourism, increasing street protests.Most effective and Least Impact: Decreased people's trust in each other and tourists, Increased partying and overtaking relationships, Decreased patriotism due to life pressures, Increased graduation and reduced illiteracy, Increased reverse migration from the city to Villages, increasing tourists' awareness of their rights et al.most influential and Most effective:Increased security due to the expansion of e-banking, increased willingness of people to use virtual networks, increased role of Instagram bloggers in promoting destinations, increased clean and hybrid vehicles in transportation, recovery due to reduced travel in the Corona era, environmental degradation Living and building second homes, increasing voluntary clean-up groups, reducing good soil and desertification et al.Most effective and least effective: increasing the use of smart phones, increasing the use of CCTV, increasing the use of drones and robots, climate change, expanding tourism facilities and infrastructure, surpassing the tradition of modernity et al.Conclusion:According to the research findings, increasing the economic gap between the people, increasing international sanctions, increasing political relations with Islamic countries, increasing propaganda and distorting the events of the country, increasing the share of the private sector in the tourism economy, long bureaucratic process in the field Entrepreneurship, increasing travel demand with the end of the Corona epidemic, restoring the environment resulting from reduced travel in the Corona era, increasing people's use of smartphones, increasing the role of Instagram bloggers in advertising, et al were the trends that will have tourism in Iran in the post-Corona era. Constructive interactions and political relations between different countries and their impact on tourist traffic between the two countries is a subject whose pathology requires the expression of a set of clichéd issues; Because this trend has a significant impact on other trends such as increasing economic gap, people's purchasing power, tourist demand, etc., the need to further develop political relations with other countries is emphasized; Although political relations with other countries have taken complex angles in the last decade, but given Iran's vast natural and religious capabilities, we can emphasize the development of political relations with the countries of the Islamic world and the countries of the Persian Gulf; In this regard, the establishment of a tourism organization, similar to the Organization of the Islamic Conference and led by Iran, may be very helpful.Keywords:Future Studies, Tourism Development, Iran country, Mic Mac
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