مهاجرت گزینشی در ایران: الگوها و تفاوت ها (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
مهاجرت رخدادی گزینشی است و مهاجران نمونه تصادفی از جمعیت مبدأ نیستند.این موضوعی است که این مقاله با استفاده از داده های سطح خرد سرشماریهای نفوس و مسکن 1390 و 1395 در چارچوب شاخص هایی نظیر شدّت مهاجرت و سن در اوج مهاجرت به آن می پردازد.. از میان نظریات مطرح شده دراین باره، تلاش شده تا مفروضات نظریات مرتبط با چرخه عمر و زندگی که با واردکردن تعیین کننده های بلافصل سعی در نشان دادن اثرات این تعیین کننده ها در مشخص کردن الگوهای مهاجرتی در جوامع مختلف دارند موردبررسی قرار گیرند. نظریه تعیین کننده های بلافصل مهاجرت بر اثرگذاری برخی عوامل تغییر یابنده در زندگی فرد مانند ازدواج، شروع و پایان تحصیلات، و ورود به بازار کار که موجب تغییر وضعیت فرد در مراحل مختلف زندگی می شوند، بر گزینشی بودن فرایند مهاجرت تأکید دارد. نتایج بررسی نشان داد که در دهه 95-1385 با تأخیر سنی (به ویژه برای مردان) و شدّت کمتر مهاجرت در نقاط اوج آن روبرو بوده ایم. همچنین، نتایج نشان داد که شدّت مهاجرت در تمام سنین در استان های بیشتر توسعه یافته بیشتر از سایر استان ها و در مناطق شهری بیشتر از مناطق روستایی بوده است. بعلاوه، بیشترین شدّت مهاجرت در میان جوانان، مردان، افراد متأهل، و تحصیل کردگان دانشگاهی بوده است. در دوره 95-1390 در مقایسه با دوره 90-1385، تفاوت های جنسیتی مهاجرت کاهش یافته و احتمال مهاجرت افراد با تحصیلات دانشگاهی افزایش یافته است. ازاین رو، عوامل چرخه عمر و گذارهای زندگی با شدّت مهاجرت هم خوانی داشته و در برخی دوره های چرخه زندگی مهاجرت به اوج خود می رسد.Selective Migration in Iran: Patterns and Differences
Extended
Introduction
On average, one million people have migrated and moved within the country in recent decades in Iran. Changing the pattern of rural-to-urban migration to inter-urban migration, increasing migration in geographical distances, increasing the share and participation of women in migration flows, regional inequalities, and increasing the emigration flows from the east and west to the central parts of the country, are the most important features of recent internal migration in Iran. Migration and internal displacements occur in response to various factors with different effectiveness. Based on the life course approach, migration depends on individual characteristics and includes diverse target groups. Migration is strongly linked to an individual’s passage through life course stages. The increase in migration in some periods of the life cycle affects migration selectivity. For example, people who are of the age to enter work or get married are more likely to leave home and migrate. In this regard, the article uses micro-census data from 2011 and 2016 and the indicators, such as migration intensity and age at migration peak, to examine migration in Iran.
Methodology
In this research, the secondary analysis of individual data of a two percent sample of Iran's population and housing censuses in the years 2011 and 2016 has been used. Four independent variables of age, gender, education, and marital status were used to examine migration selectivity. Two indicators of migration intensity and age profiles were calculated as dependent variables. Excel and SPSS software were used for data analysis. Using logistic regression, we investigated the effect of independent variables on the probability of migration during 2006-2016.
Results and discussion
The results of the study showed that in the recent decade, the highest inter-provincial migration intensity was related to Alborz and Semnan provinces, and the lowest values were related to Sistan and Baluchistan, Kerman, and West Azerbaijan provinces. The migration peak age was 24 years in 2011. The provincial differences in the peak age of migration varied from 21 years in Ardabil and Hamadan provinces to 31 years in Ilam and Lorestan provinces in 2011. The migration peak age increased to 28 years in 2016. Provincial differences in the migration peak age varied from 21 years in Qom province to 36 years in Illam province in 2016. The highest migration intensity at peak age was found in Bushehr and Semnan provinces in 2011 and Semnan and Alborz provinces in 2016. Therefore, in the transition stage to adulthood, people are in the healthiest state of life and can migrate and move more efficiently. Thus, the study's results showed that in the decade 2006-2016, we faced age delay (especially for men) and less migration intensity at its peak. A postponement of migration to older ages is consistent with a progressive delay in transitioning to adult roles later in life for both males and females. Migration in Asian countries is concentrated in the early 20s of life, while in Europe and North America, the peak of migration is at older ages, and its scope is more scattered.
Based on the results, from 2011 to 2016 compared to the period of 2006-2011, gender differences in migration decreased. Of course, the results showed that men and women have different migration behaviors and reasons. Male migration age patterns are shaped by military service and employed-related moves, whereas females migrate for family- and education-related reasons. Therefore, migration is a gender construct and the role of women should be investigated in migration studies. Also, the results of the study indicated that the probability of migration of people with a university education has increased in recent years. As Bernard et al. (2018), stated there are several paths and channels through which education is related to migration: First, education facilitates migration by reducing costs and barriers to movement. Second, migration can allow migrants to acquire new skills through education. Hence, a significant number of young people migrate for further education. Finally, through migration, the distribution of human capital can change the share and composition of knowledge and skills in both origin and destination regions.
Also, the results showed that the migration intensity among ever-married people is higher than among never-married people. Therefore, marital status is another factor affecting migration and decisions. Bernard et al. (2018) showed that family formation and marriage, which is one of the stages of transition to adulthood, affect migration patterns.
Therefore, the most significant migration intensity has been among young people, men, married people, and university graduates. In addition, the results showed that migration intensity of all ages is higher in more developed provinces than in other provinces and urban areas than in rural areas.
Conclusion
In general, it can be concluded that from 2011 to 2016, compared to the period of 2006-2011, gender differences in migration decreased. On the contrary, the probability of migration of people with a university education has increased. Therefore, in some life cycle periods, the migration reaches its peak. Hence, life cycle and life transition factors are consistent with the migration intensity. Thus, migration is a selective process, and it can have different consequences for the origins and destinations of migration. As a result, it is essential to pay attention to the dimensions of migration selectivity in policy-making.
Funding
There is no funding support.
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
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