تحلیل عوامل اقتصادی مؤثر بر آسیب های اجتماعی (جرم سرقت)؛ مطالعه موردی، استان آذربایجان شرقی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
متفکران اجتماعی از دیرباز درباره آسیب های اجتماعی مطالعه کرده اند. دسته ای، آنها را ناشی از سرشت آدمی دانسته اند که بیشتر در نظریه های روان شناختی ریشه دارد و دسته ای دیگر آنها را ناشی از محیط و طبیعت اجتماع می دانند. در بروز آسیب های اجتماعی به عوامل متعددی توجه شده است. شرایط اقتصادی جامعه، ازجمله این عوامل است که بر اجتماع و مسائل اجتماعی اثرگذار است. مطالعه حاضر به دنبال بررسی تأثیر برخی متغیرهای اقتصادی بر آسیب اجتماعی سرقت در استان آذربایجان شرقی، طی دوره 1379 الی 1399 است. نتایج برآورد مدل به روش خودرگرسیونی با وقفه های توزیعی (ARDL) نشان می دهد در بلندمدت و کوتاه مدت با افزایش شاخص فلاکت، جرم (سرقت) افزایش می یابد. همچنین رابطه منفی معنی داری بین رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی استان با تعداد جرم وجود دارد. افزایش متوسط هزینه های خوراکی خانوار نیز ارتباط مستقیمی با جرم سرقت در استان دارد.Analysis of the Effects of Economic Factors on Social Harms (Crime of Theft): A Case Study of East Azarbaijan Province
Introduction
The study of social harm has long been the focus of social thinkers. One group considers them to be caused by human nature, which is often rooted in psychological theories, while another group considers them to be caused by the environment and the nature of society. Several factors have been considered in the occurrence of social harm. Among these factors, economic conditions of the society play a significant role. Crime as one of the most obvious social harms in any societies has caused countries to increase the costs of security and public order, resulting in inefficient use of resources in both the public and private sectors. Given the wide dimensions of social harms and increasing spread of criminal activities in the society, this study examined the economic factors affecting social harms with a specific focus on the crime of theft in East Azarbaijan Province. The study aimed to answer the question of whether an increase in the poverty index, living costs, and economic growth in the province could affect the commission of theft.
Materials & Methods
This study investigated the impact of several economic variables, including Gross National Product (GDP), misery index, food and non-food expenditure, and population growth, on the social damage caused by crime in East Azarbaijan Province from 2000 to 2020. The required data were obtained from the statistical yearbook of East Azarbaijan Province, as well as the statistical yearbook of the country for different years. The appropriate models were selected based on theoretical topics, empirical research studies, and considerations of data and information. The desired pattern was estimated using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) with the collected data.
Discussion of Results & Conclusion
The results obtained indicated that the misery index had a short and long-term impact on the number of thefts in East Azarbaijan Province. The misery index directly affected the individuals' living standards through the inflation and unemployment rates, reducing their financial resources, incomes, and purchasing power, which could lead to an increase in criminal activities. Inflationary conditions had decreased the purchasing power of households and increased the cost of living, prompting people to turn to criminal activities to maintain their previous standard of living. Unemployment, on the other hand, contributed to poverty, economic inequalities, and reduced opportunities for earning and employment, leading to crimes, deviations, tensions, social disorders, and violence.
Additionally, the results showed that an increase in the gross domestic product of the province led to a decrease in theft. Economic growth and expansion improved business conditions, provided employment opportunities, generated income, and reduced motivation for criminal activities, such as theft. The study also revealed that the highest growth of theft occurred in 2008, coinciding with the lowest level of the GDP in the province. Increases in the cost of living and the average cost of food and non-food items due to inflation had a direct relationship with theft in East Azarbaijan Province.
Based on the obtained results and the impact of the studied economic variables on crime in East Azarbaijan Province, it is necessary to focus on planning and policy-making to reduce inflation and unemployment, as well as creating production and employment opportunities.
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