تحلیل جایگاه صادرات گاز ج.ا.ایران به عمان از منظر همگرایی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
از مهمترین تحولات سیاست خارجی ج.ا.ایران در دهه گذشته بر خلاف دهه های قبل، توجه به مناطق پیرامونی از جمله خلیج فارس و نگاه به شرق و توجه به کشورهای اسیایی مانند هند و پاکستان در قالب کاهش اختلافات با همسایگان و همکاری گسترده با شرق است. پرسش اصلی این است که چگونه صادرات گاز ج.ا.ایران به عمان می تواند عاملی در گسترش همگرایی در روابط دو کشور باشد؟ فرضیه پژوهش این است که گسترش ارتباطات مختلف از جمله کالایی استراتژیک مانند صادرات گاز ایران به عمان می تواند بسترساز ارتقای همگرایی دو کشور در حوزه های دیگر روابط دو کشور گردد. این پژوهش از روش تحقیق بررسی دلایل کارکردی از پیتر مک لافلین و چارچوب مفهومی همگرایی و نظریه ارتباطات کارل دویچ بهره می برد. یافته ها نشان می دهد که افزایش ارتباطات از جمله در کالاهای استراتژیک مانند صادرات گاز بین دو کشور می تواند بسترساز افزایش مبادلات کالا و خدمات گردد. صادرات گاز به عمان سبب تامین نیازهای انرژی این کشور، امنیت انرژی و حتی زمینه ساز گسترش خط لوله گاز از عمان به هند و چین، مهمترین عامل موثر در بکارگیری سیاست خارجی همگرا و فعال ج.ا.ایران در کشورهای حوزه خلیج فارس می باشد.An Analysis of Iran’s Gas Export to Oman from the Perspective of Convergence Theory
In the years after the relative domestic stability following the Islamic Revolution of Iran, regional and international issues became the most important concerns of the Iranian politicians. The Iran hostage crisis and the ensuing break in Iran–US relations as well as the Iraqi-imposed war on Iran during the early years of the formation of the Islamic Revolution practically led to a crisis in Iran’s relations with the Western, Eastern, and Arab countries in the Persian Gulf. Later on, some analysts of Iran’s foreign policy pointed to the ideological nature of Iran’s foreign policy, the idealist viewpoint of Iran’s revolutionary leaders, and the attempt to export the Revolution to other countries. The foreign policy of Iran was based on the preference for nations over states in international relations, the emphasis on the political independence in planning and policymaking, on the preference for beliefs over economic and commercial interests in bilateral and multilateral relations, and the importance attached to political justice in the relations between states in international relations. Highlighting the convergence in intra- and extraregional cooperation, recent changes in Iran’s foreign policy have led to the current emphasis on convergence of issues such as expansion of bilateral and multilateral relations, cooperation and good-neighborliness with neighbors (esp. in the Persian Gulf region), and reduction of disputes. This new approach to foreign policy subscribes to the view that Iran has strategic depth due to its geographical and historical location, hence capable of attaining strategic-cum-global significance. For this purpose, it is necessary for Iran to resolve its problems and differences with its neighbors, establish friendly relationships based on good-neighborliness, and prepare the grounds for the convergence of countries by exporting strategic goods, for example, gas export to Oman. Iran–Oman relations in the field of energy can move to a transregional level, leading to the greater convergence and cooperation in the Persian Gulf region and even in the countries such as India and China. This article aims to evaluate one of the most important developments in Iran’s foreign policy in the last decade, that is, the focus on the surrounding regions, including the Persian Gulf, and the look to the East and Asian countries (e.g., India and China) for the purpose of reducing the disputes with neighbors and seeking extensive cooperation with the East concerning the export of natural gas. The main question is, how can Iran’s export of gas to Oman contribute to the expansion of convergence in Iran–Oman relations? The research hypothesis predicts that the expansion of communications (e.g., the export of strategic goods, such as gas, to Oman) will prepare the ground for enhancing the convergence between the two countries in other fields. The research used Peter McLaughlin’s functional explanation as the method and convergence theory as well as Karl Deutsch’s communications theory as the conceptual frameworks. Considering the economic power and energy in the Persian Gulf region, the analysis indicates that Iran is able to be one of the important sources of income and set gas transit in the region, hence the transit hub of the Persian Gulf. Iran’s gas export to Oman faces challenges and advantages. Regarding the challenges, the enormous investment is required for transporting gas through pipelines over a long distance, which stresses the need to guarantee the gas consumption market and access to a large volume of gas reserves. The dispute between Oman and the UAE over determining the route of the gas pipeline constitutes an important challenge for Iran’s export of gas to Oman. Another challenge is the sanctions through which the US and the Western countries, unable to dominate the energy and resources of Iran after the victory of the Islamic Revolution, tried to oppose Iran. The US has prevented Iran from reaching its desired goals. Despite the challenges, Iran’s gas export to Oman has advantages. For example, the construction of the gas pipeline is beneficial given the fact that Iran is supposed to export 30 million cubic meters gas to Oman and increase this figure to 70 million. This long-term contract enables Iran to achieve between 20 to 30 million dollars of gas revenue. The findings show that the increase in communications (e.g., the export of strategic goods, such as gas) between the two countries can prepare the ground for increasing exchanges of other goods and services. Exporting gas to Oman is considered as the reason for meeting the country’s energy needs, energy security, and even as the basis for the expansion of the gas pipeline from Oman to India and China—which is the most effective factor for the implementation of Iran’s active foreign policy based on convergence between the countries of the Persian Gulf.
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