تحلیلی بر نظام ژئوپلیتیک غذای جهانی با تأکید بر جایگاه ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
در دهه های اخیر عواملی همچون تغییرات آب و هوایی، کمبود منابع آبی، افزایش جمعیت جهان، افزایش جمعیت شهرنشین و مصرف کننده، استفاده از مواد غذایی برای تولید سوختهای زیستی، استفاده از غذا به عنوان یک اهرم فشار در رقابت های ژئوپلیتیکی و تضعیف کشور رقیب و سایر عوامل امروزه غذا را به یکی از موضوعات مهم ژئوپلیتیک بدل ساختهاند. این پژوهش به منظور تحلیل نظام ژئوپلیتیک غذای جهانی در قالب روش تحقیق آمیخته اکتشافی و مبتنی بر داده های فائو و با استفاده از مدلهای دلفی، PROMETHEE ،AHP Fuzzy و نرم افزارهای Excel و GIS انجام شده است. نتایج نشان می دهد قدرت های برتر در عرصه ژئوپلیتیک غذا به ترتیب ۱۰ کشور آمریکا، فرانسه، آرژانتین، آلمان، استرالیا، برزیل، هند، هلند، اسپانیا، و بلژیک هستند. ایران با رتبههای ۱۶، ۵، ۷۴ و ۱۳ در تولید، واردات، صادرات و مصرف محصولات استراتژیک غذایی، کشوری آسیب پذیر در عرصه ژئوپلیتیک غذای جهانی به شمار میرود. در دهههای اخیر عواملی همچون تغییرات آب و هوایی، کمبود منابع آبی، افزایش جمعیت جهان، افزایش جمعیت شهرنشین و مصرف کننده، استفاده از مواد غذایی برای تولید سوختهای زیستی، استفاده از غذا به عنوان یک اهرم فشار در رقابت های ژئوپلیتیکی و تضعیف کشور رقیب و سایر عوامل امروزه غذا را به یکی از موضوعات مهم ژئوپلیتیک بدل ساختهاند. این پژوهش به منظور تحلیل نظام ژئوپلیتیک غذای جهانی در قالب روش تحقیق آمیخته اکتشافی و مبتنی بر داده های فائو و با استفاده از مدلهای دلفی، PROMETHEE ،AHP Fuzzy و نرم افزارهای Excel و GIS انجام شده است. نتایج نشان می دهد قدرت های برتر در عرصه ژئوپلیتیک غذا به ترتیب ۱۰ کشور آمریکا، فرانسه، آرژانتین، آلمان، استرالیا، برزیل، هند، هلند، اسپانیا، و بلژیک هستند. ایران با رتبههای ۱۶، ۵، ۷۴ و ۱۳ در تولید، واردات، صادرات و مصرف محصولات استراتژیک غذایی، کشوری آسیب پذیر در عرصه ژئوپلیتیک غذای جهانی به شمار میرود.An analysis of the geopolitical system of world food with emphasis on the position of Iran
Extended Abstract Introduction In recent decades, Power and its measurement methods have been one of the inexhaustible concerns of most experts in the fields of political geography and geopolitics, international relations, political science, etc. Doing plenty of research and studies to assess the status of national power represents the interest of researchers in this topic and its importance. Understanding of the nation power of country and its position relative to other countries, Political leaders helps to have a proper strategy to maximize their goals and realize the benefits. The main factors shaping of national power is Located in different areas and a range of spiritual and material are included. Methodology In this paper we used the exploring technique as the one of the integrated research methods. Data has been gathered using the library and documentary methods, surfing the internet for national and international scientific databases such as FAO. The Delphi method (classic) to select strategic products of food of Iran (using The expert panel consisted of 33 patients during three surveys), the promethee and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for ranking countries in the geopolitics of food and Software of Excel and GIS for data analysis and drawing maps are used. Result and discussion Based on the consensus of experts in research, the results show that wheat is the most Iran's strategic products of food followed by rice, barley, meat, oil, Maize and sugar. This seven-product were selected as Iran’s strategic products of food from the perspective of experts. The findings of this study indicate that the main exporting countries of strategic products of food are powers in the geopolitics of food and 15 powerful are America, France, Argentina, Germany, Australia, Brazil, India, Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, Canada, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Russia, and Italy respectively. Based on the average data from 1992 to 2011 from FAO, Iran has had the ranks of fifteenth in export of strategic products of food between countries not only doesn’t have a good Sphere of influence in geopolitics of food that a vulnerable country is known. Based on the average data from 1992 to 2011 from FAO, Iran has had the ranks of fifteenth, thirteenth, fifteenth and forty-fifth respectively in production, consumption, import and export of wheat. Also, the rank of Iran in wheat producing with 1.8 (tons/hectares) is thirty-second among the all countries. The results of the ARIMA model shows that Iran would be a small importer of wheat till 2021 at least. Based on the results, the most important exporters of wheat from 1992 to 2011 have been: USA, Canada, France, Australia, Argentina, Russia, Germany, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and England respectively. Hence, according to the results of Analytic hierarchy process and five factors including Political stability, Transportation advantages, Stability in the production and export, Economic relations with Iran and Political relations with Iran and their variables, the best countries for importing of wheat to Iran are respectively Russia, Kazakhstan, Germany, France, Ukraine, England, Argentina, USA, Australia, and Canada. Conclusion According to our aims in this research (i.e. measuring and ranking national power in the international geopolitical food), findings show that Iran is a dependent country in the international geopolitical food. It is obvious that the geopolitical dependency influence on the national power of country negatively. Therefore, it is necessary to find ways to balance import and export in order to adjust or overcome the dependency. Key word: Food, Strategic Products of Food, National Power, Geopolitics of Food Extended Abstract Introduction In recent decades, Power and its measurement methods have been one of the inexhaustible concerns of most experts in the fields of political geography and geopolitics, international relations, political science, etc. Doing plenty of research and studies to assess the status of national power represents the interest of researchers in this topic and its importance. Understanding of the nation power of country and its position relative to other countries, Political leaders helps to have a proper strategy to maximize their goals and realize the benefits. The main factors shaping of national power is Located in different areas and a range of spiritual and material are included. Methodology In this paper we used the exploring technique as the one of the integrated research methods. Data has been gathered using the library and documentary methods, surfing the internet for national and international scientific databases such as FAO. The Delphi method (classic) to select strategic products of food of Iran (using The expert panel consisted of 33 patients during three surveys), the promethee and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for ranking countries in the geopolitics of food and Software of Excel and GIS for data analysis and drawing maps are used. Result and discussion Based on the consensus of experts in research, the results show that wheat is the most Iran's strategic products of food followed by rice, barley, meat, oil, Maize and sugar. This seven-product were selected as Iran’s strategic products of food from the perspective of experts. The findings of this study indicate that the main exporting countries of strategic products of food are powers in the geopolitics of food and 15 powerful are America, France, Argentina, Germany, Australia, Brazil, India, Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, Canada, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Russia, and Italy respectively. Based on the average data from 1992 to 2011 from FAO, Iran has had the ranks of fifteenth in export of strategic products of food between countries not only doesn’t have a good Sphere of influence in geopolitics of food that a vulnerable country is known. Based on the average data from 1992 to 2011 from FAO, Iran has had the ranks of fifteenth, thirteenth, fifteenth and forty-fifth respectively in production, consumption, import and export of wheat. Also, the rank of Iran in wheat producing with 1.8 (tons/hectares) is thirty-second among the all countries. The results of the ARIMA model shows that Iran would be a small importer of wheat till 2021 at least. Based on the results, the most important exporters of wheat from 1992 to 2011 have been: USA, Canada, Key word: Food, Strategic Products of Food, National Power, Geopolitics of Food
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