مطالب مرتبط با کلیدواژه

crisis management


۱.

Spatial Location of Urban Water and Wastewater installations, with the aim of increasing the resilience of crises

کلیدواژه‌ها: water and sewage installations Crisis crisis management Geographic information system GIS

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۲۶۶ تعداد دانلود : ۲۰۵
Crises have always caused many, and sometimes irreparable, damages and injuries to human nations having had adverse impacts on indices of society, economy and environment. Therefore analysis and optimum management of these crises are the priorities in the states around the world. Access to valid and up-to-date information plays the pivotal role in proper and timely programming and performance on managers’ and responsible organizations’ side in various phases of the crisis management cycle. While more than 80% of the required information in crises actually have a local and geographical nature, utilizing the modern technology of GIS with special capabilities in modeling, combining and analyzing the data can be effective and impasse-breaking while analyzing vast layers of information in both phases of prediction and strike of crises. A good knowledge of the crisis-causing factors before their strike or prediction of the essential arrangements to prevent or reduce their affects or aftermaths to the least is one of the base procedures in the management of unexpected events. In this direction, precision in properly locating the installations and passages of the pipes and canals would be immensely important; bearing in mind the key role of continuation of serving essential arteries; particularly water and sewage installations, in controlling and preventing the expansion of crises, and preserving public health and hygiene on the one hand, and the significant expenses of construction or reconstruction of these systems on the other. Thus, through this study, we have discussed how to exploit the creation and production procedures in purposefully locating water and sewage installations and also their other usages in designing, management, programming and development of these installations, in addition to introducing the geographical information systems and clarifications of the creation and production procedures. The location of urban water and sewage facilities is very effective in increasing the resilience of natural disasters through the use of the geographical information system.
۲.

Future Studies and Strategic Planning to Achieve Resilient Cities

کلیدواژه‌ها: Futures Study Resilience flexibility GIS Strategic Planning crisis management

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۵۶۶ تعداد دانلود : ۳۵۱
Every year, crises cause extensive and occasionally irreversible damage to countries and human societies affecting communities, economies, and environments. Identifying, proper planning, and optimum managing of crises are among the priorities of government programs and procedures. With the expansion and complexity of the societies and variety and innumerability of crisis-making factors, mere use of traditional methods of reinforcement and crisis management would not be efficient. One of the most important ideas brought about in the present decade for crisis management and urban planning is creating resilient cities in the face of various crises by increasing their capacity in all aspects. The significance of this standpoint is the comprehensive look at crisis-making factors, controlling crises, and reduction of vulnerability, particularly in human resources, which speeds the resilience process. Although all infrastructural or environmental, economic, social-cultural, and organizational or institutional aspects have been taken into consideration in resilience, the focus on social and cultural capacitating in each and every citizen would be greatly effectual in a developing country such as Iran. This land endures weak infrastructures and structures, but enjoys a rich cultural and national support from the citizens’ creativity and participation that can help us with achieving the goal of flexibility in crisis management by spending the least amount of time and money. In the present paper, the experiences of other nations and novel concepts such as creative cities, resistant development, principles of futures study and planning, and process-oriented strategic management have been studied along with the current state of Iran. Finally, the method of “Strategic Futures Study and Planning based on GIS” is suggested as a suitable approach in crisis management planning. In the author’s point of view, complete use of this method could help us significantly reduce the losses of disasters and pioneer in the field of crisis management among developing countries.<br /> <strong> </strong>
۳.

Designing a News Evaluation Model in Crisis Management(مقاله پژوهشی وزارت بهداشت)

تعداد بازدید : ۲۰۷ تعداد دانلود : ۱۴۸
Introduction: Considering the country's vulnerability to various disasters and the important role of the national media at the time of accidents and disasters and the public's attention to the media at this time, the present study aims to achieve and design a news executive model in crisis management. Method: This research has a mixed approach and therefore the research was conducted in two phases, qualitative and quantitative. The first phase is done using the method based on grounded theory or grounded theory and the next phase is done using the quantitative research method based on the researcher-made questionnaire. The statistical population of the research in the qualitative section includes managers and media and crisis elites who were interviewed using purposive sampling and saturation (25 cases). The statistical population of the quantitative section also included 196 managers, experts and media and crisis experts (Red Crescent Society and Crisis Management Organization) of the country. Findings: Based on the research findings, it can be said that categories such as the nature and unprofessional coverage of news, biased news organization, lack of media independence and ultimately public distrust and tendency to alternative media as the requirements for designing news executive model in crisis management were coded as causal conditions. In the theory analysis process, the help of MAXQDA software version 2020 was used, which identified a total of 120 concepts and 20 categories. Then, in the quantitative part, using Smartpls3 software, the relationship of these categories to explain the news in crisis management was obtained. Conclusion: According to the results, the categories of accountability of officials, social cohesion and increasing resilience, improving media performance and gaining public trust are the consequences of using appropriate strategies for developing news in crisis management. The results showed that there is a positive and significant relationship between the nature and unprofessional coverage of news with the design and explanation of crisis management news and also people's distrust and tendency to alternative media with inappropriate design of crisis management news.
۴.

Model Analysis of Effective Factors on the Implementation of Crisis Management Policies(مقاله پژوهشی وزارت بهداشت)

تعداد بازدید : ۵۱۷ تعداد دانلود : ۱۵۴
INTRODUCTION: Crisis management maintains security, stability, and flexibility in society by integrating different social resources with appropriate decisions and strengthening the ability of the community to recover from the negative impacts. Therefore, the present study aimed to conduct a model analysis of effective factors in implementing crisis management policies. METHODS: The present study is a descriptive survey research with a mixed methods design. A total of 18 experts were non-randomly and purposefully selected for the qualitative section based on expertise and availability. In addition, 248 individuals were selected from managers and experts (658 people) of the National Disaster Management Organization of Iran and partner organizations for the quantitative section based on Krejcie and Morgan Table using Cochran's formula and simple random sampling. The research instrument was a researcher-made questionnaire including 33 factors affecting the implementation of crisis management policy, the content validity of which was confirmed by professors, and its reliability by Cronbach's alpha test (α = 0.89). Data were analyzed using SPSS and AMOS software and the AHP method was used to prioritize the factors. FINDINGS: Findings indicated that 33 components in the form of structural, organizational, environmental, and management factors, as well as financial and human resources, uniform practices, communication, information, and inter-organizational coordination, regulations, and policy implementers successfully affect the implementation of crisis management policies. Structural, organizational, and environmental factors significantly affect the implementation of policies. CONCLUSION: Defining the responsibilities of partner organizations as well as developing transparency and designing specific goals contribute to the successful implementation of crisis management policies.
۵.

Effect of Social Responsibility Components on Crisis Prevention: A Case Study of Crisis Management Organization(مقاله پژوهشی وزارت بهداشت)

تعداد بازدید : ۴۰۰ تعداد دانلود : ۱۸۶
INTRODUCTION: This study was investigated to represent and measure the impact of social responsibility components on crisis prevention in a conceptual model. Therefore, according to the research model, this study proposed 17 hypotheses about the existence of social responsibility among the employees of organizations involved in helping the victims of natural and man-made disasters, which would lead to crisis prevention. METHODS: This applied research was performed based on the descriptive-survey research method with a correlational approach using field study to collect data. The statistical population of this study consisted of 250 managers and experts of the Crisis Management Organization and the general departments of crisis management of the provinces (subdivisions of the Provincial Governments). The samples were selected using the relative stratified random sampling method, and the final sample size was determined at 150 individuals using Cochran's formula. To collect information, a 17-item researcher-made questionnaire was employed consisting of three main components (i.e., macro environment, organizational factors, and individual factors) and items for each of these three components. The responses were rated on a 5-point Likert scale (from 1=very low to 5=very high). Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to check the normality of the distribution of variables. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 26 and the t-test and confirmatory factor analysis modeling was used in AMOS24 software FINDINGS: The results showed that the significance levels obtained for all factors, except technological and geographical factors, were less than 0.05; therefore, all these factors were different from the average of the community. On the other hand, since the mean differences were positive in all factors, all components of social responsibility, except technological and geographical factors, had an impact on crisis prevention. CONCLUSION: It can be said that the special attention of managers, authorities, and employees to the vital issue of social responsibility, especially in their daily activities, not only would help improve intra-organizational communication and increase employee motivation but also would lead to preventing crises.
۶.

Evaluation of Performance of the Applied Science Centers of the Iranian Red Crescent Society Concerning Crisis Management(مقاله پژوهشی وزارت بهداشت)

تعداد بازدید : ۳۵۵ تعداد دانلود : ۱۷۲
BACKGROUND: The present study was conducted with the aim to evaluate the performance of the applied science centers of the Iranian Red Crescent Society (IRCS) in crisis management. METHODS: In this descriptive-survey study, 167 out of 295 managers and experts of the applied science centers of the IRCS were selected on the basis of the Cochran formula. To examine the study variables, a questionnaire including 37 items and 2 parts evaluating performance and crisis management was employed. The financial, customer, internal processes, and growth and learning performances were measured in the performance assessment section, and the 6 dimensions of flexibility, inclusion, trust, risk perception, fairness, and consistency were measured in the crisis management part. The reliability, content validity, and construct validity of the questionnaires were confirmed by Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, a group of university professo BACKGROUND: The present study was conducted with the aim to evaluate the performance of the applied science centers of the Iranian Red Crescent Society (IRCS) in crisis management. METHODS: In this descriptive-survey study, 167 out of 295 managers and experts of the applied science centers of the IRCS were selected on the basis of the Cochran formula. To examine the study variables, a questionnaire including 37 items and 2 parts evaluating performance and crisis management was employed. The financial, customer, internal processes, and growth and learning performances were measured in the performance assessment section, and the 6 dimensions of flexibility, inclusion, trust, risk perception, fairness, and consistency were measured in the crisis management part. The reliability, content validity, and construct validity of the questionnaires were confirmed by Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, a group of university professors, and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), respectively. Then, inferential statistical methods such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test were used to ensure the normal distribution of data, and the structural equation model, Pearson correlation test, chi-square test, two-sample t-test, and one-sample t-test were used in the LISREL and SPSS software to test the hypotheses. RESULTS: The performance of the applied science centers of the IRCS in crisis management was higher than the average level based on the balanced scorecard (BSC) model. In addition, in terms of the 4 characteristics of financial performance, customer performance, internal process performance, and growth and learning performance, the crisis management performance of this organization was at a desirable level. CONCLUSION: It seems that policymakers, while maintaining the current situation, should plan for the development of crisis management, as well as for providing the ground for continuous improvement and better performance in this area. rs, and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), respectively. Then, inferential statistical methods such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test were used to ensure the normal distribution of data, and the structural equation model, Pearson correlation test, chi-square test, two-sample t-test, and one-sample t-test were used in the LISREL and SPSS software to test the hypotheses. RESULTS: The performance of the applied science centers of the IRCS in crisis management was higher than the average level based on the balanced scorecard (BSC) model. In addition, in terms of the 4 characteristics of financial performance, customer performance, internal process performance, and growth and learning performance, the crisis management performance of this organization was at a desirable level. CONCLUSION: It seems that policymakers, while maintaining the current situation, should plan for the development of crisis management, as well as for providing the ground for continuous improvement and better performance in this area.
۷.

Prioritization of Crisis Management Practical Measures in the Field of Drought Using Views of Executive Managers(مقاله پژوهشی وزارت بهداشت)

تعداد بازدید : ۲۵۵ تعداد دانلود : ۱۵۰
Introduction: Drought is considered as a complex and creeping natural hazard associated with pervasive socio-economic and environmental impacts. Given the water reserves, per capita consumption, and average rainfall, Iran can be regarded as one of the countries facing the risk of lack of physical water resources and therefore proper management of drought in the country is an important issue. The main objective in the present study was to identify the dimensions gaining less attention in the context of executive drought management measures. METHODS: This was an applied-developmental study performed with the field method along with documentary studies. The data collection tool, data collection method, and data analysis method were a researcher-made questionnaire, structured interview, Q methodology using factor analysis, respectively. The statistical population of the study consisted of 12 executives of the Forests, Range, and Watershed Management Organization, Deputy ABFA of ministry of energy, Agricultural Promotion, Training, and Development Organization, and Deputy Minister of Water and Soil of Ministry of Agricultural Jihad active in drought management executive actions in the country. To derive the questionnaire items using the expert opinion, 24 items on drought management performance measures were selected in four technical-structural, socio-economic, managerial, and environmental-climatic aspects and factor interpretation was performed on them. FINDINGS: Based on the factor analysis of the results, the two technical-oriented and management-centered technical-oriented subjective models that both criticized the executive actions in the socio-economic dimension, were specified among the executives of the drought management field. Thus, according to the experts, most problems in the country in the field of drought management were in the socio-economic sector and most of the achievements in the technical-structural dimension. CONCLUSION: The results of the viewpoints of the executive managers indicated that most of them considered health promotion in drought crisis as one of the achievements of the executive measures in this field in the country which can be used as a strength in future planning.
۸.

Futures Study of Crises due to a Possible Earthquake in Tehran, Iran: Information Infrastructure Vulnerability and Possibility of Occurrence of Efficacy and Influence Crises(مقاله پژوهشی وزارت بهداشت)

تعداد بازدید : ۲۴۳ تعداد دانلود : ۱۲۴
high vulnerability of these infrastructures raise the question of what effects the demolition of these infrastructures would have. Natural disaster management is entirely dependent on the capacity and efficiency of the central government in Iran and the government also mobilizes and organizes crisis management and resources through an almost monopoly and exclusively controlled information system. Therefore, the present study was accomplished to examine some of the likely impacts and consequences of an earthquake in Tehran from a prospective perspective. METHODS: Using documentary data and the implementation of a two-round expert panel, it was examined whether the demolition of information infrastructures due to a potential earthquake in Tehran would impose efficacy and influence crises on the government. In this way, basic study information was collected using library documents and the futurological aspects of the problem, i.e. the probability of a severe earthquake, destruction of media infrastructure, and the subsequent possible crises were investigated using the Expert panel method. FINDINGS: Taking into account the tectonic potentials and historical backgrounds, the occurrence of a major earthquake with magnitude greater than 7 is highly probable in Tehran. Given the density of information structures, installations, and trusted organizations in vulnerable areas, there is a high likelihood of destruction of a large part of the information infrastructure and networks. This situation, in the absence of measures and sufficient alternative networks, would increase the likelihood of severe disruptions in the information and crisis management process. Such a situation, given the social and political contexts, is likely to trigger or intensify the efficacy and influence crises. CONCLUSION: Considering the drawbacks present in the information structure, i.e. the concentration in Tehran and the imminent destructive earthquake in Tehran, as well as the location of its physical buildings in the vicinity of earthquake faults, there would be many crises facing the country.
۹.

New Technologies of Crisis Management in Red Crescent Society of the Islamic Republic of Iran(مقاله پژوهشی وزارت بهداشت)

تعداد بازدید : ۴۰۹ تعداد دانلود : ۱۳۱
INTRODUCTION: The Islamic Republic of Iran Red Crescent Society, which is one of the elements of the country’s crisis management organization, is always present at the scene from the earliest moments in the critical situations such as floods, earthquakes, fires, etc. and deals with the crisis and facilitates the situation. Given the increasing role of technology in all aspects of human life, the present study is carried out aiming to investigate the role of new technologies in crisis management in the Iranian Red Crescent Society (IRCS). METHODS: This study was applied in terms of objective and qualitative in terms of data collection. The statistical population of the study consisted of the IRCS experts 9 of whom were selected by the purposeful snowball sampling method. The data collection tool was in-depth interviews. The content analysis method was used to analyze the findings of the interview using the categorization method. RESULTS: New technologies help prevent crises by creating motivation, enhancing interaction, and informing. In addition, using technology in the crisis prevention phase leads to the increased learning, decreased costs, reduced losses, and increased awareness. The application of new technologies in the crisis prevention stage also faces challenges, including infrastructure, human resources, education and research, culture, and access challenges. CONCLUSION: New technologies have led to the creation of social networks, interaction with the international community, and providing information at any time and place, which has a vital and remarkable role in crisis prevention.
۱۰.

Transfer Points Location Problem and Optimal Allocation of Injuries in the Crisis Relief Process Transfer Points Location in Crisis(مقاله پژوهشی وزارت بهداشت)

تعداد بازدید : ۳۸۰ تعداد دانلود : ۱۴۳
INTRODUCTION: In times of crisis, the timely transfer of the injured to medical facilities is one of the most important stages of relief and one of the most widely used methods to achieve the transfer point designing goal. The transfer point in literature is a place to collect and transfer the optimal demand for a particular service. For example, in times of natural disasters such as earthquakes, the injured (customers) are transferred by ambulance to the transfer points and then by helicopter to the hospital (facility). METHODS: In this study, two single-objective and double-objective complex integer number programming models were presented for the problem of locating transfer points and optimal allocation to facilities, taking into account the limitations in facility capacity and transfer points as well as assuming two types of normal and bad injuries. FINDINGS: In the single-objective model, the reduction in the time of sending the injured in the relief chain, and in the double objective model, in addition to the previous goal, the reduction of the fine for not sending the injured were examined. It is only possible to transfer each injured person to the hospital using the transfer points, and the treatment of the normally injured individuals is performed at the transfer points. The models were solved with two approaches, mild and severe. In order to show the efficiency of the proposed models, a case study was conducted in districts 10, 11, and 17 of Tehran metropolis, Iran. CONCLUSION: Setting up transfer points has a great impact on speeding up the process of providing services to the injured. Additionally, given the disproportionality of the number of injured with the capacity of hospitals in severe crises, it is necessary to anticipate transfer points to manage relief and respond to all injured.
۱۱.

Investigation the Role of New Technologies in Coping with Natural Disasters(مقاله پژوهشی وزارت بهداشت)

تعداد بازدید : ۲۵۶ تعداد دانلود : ۱۰۵
INTRODUCTION: The occurrence of natural disasters leads to economic, social, and personal infrastructure damage. Moreover, the government capacities increase rapidly following a direct and major demand for assistance. In these situations, timely communication, information gathering, and coordination to respond to the needs are of critical importance. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the effect of new technologies on dealing with natural disasters in Sistan and Baluchistan Province, Iran. METHODS: This practical study was conducted based on a descriptive-survey method. The population included 100 experts and key members of the Sistan and Baluchistan Crisis Management Coordination Council. In total 80 cases were selected using Cochran's formula and purposive (snowball) sampling method. The data were collected through a 46-item researcher-made questionnaire. The face and content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by experts, and the reliability of the questionnaire was estimated at 0.94 using Cronbach's alpha coefficient, which indicated acceptable reliability of this scale. The data were analyzed in SPSS software (version 22) through multiple regression to evaluate the research hypotheses. FINDINGS: According to the results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the data distribution was normal. Moreover, the results of the multiple regression test showed the effectiveness of new technologies in dealing with natural disasters. Furthermore, operational equipment had the most significant effects on dealing with natural disasters.
۱۲.

Evaluation and Prioritization of Effective Factors in the Crisis Management ofMarine Hazards in Makran Coast in Sistan and Baluchestan Border Guard, Chabahar Marine Security Base(مقاله پژوهشی وزارت بهداشت)

تعداد بازدید : ۲۳۲ تعداد دانلود : ۱۲۳
INTRODUCTION: Nowadays, the management of marine hazards has been taken into consideration by the authorities of marine organizations. This issue is important for preventing accidents, reducing costs, controlling socioeconomic harms, and maintaining professional human resources. METHODS: This exploratory descriptive study was performed as a survey with applied objectives. Library research was used to gather information and data collection was completed through the field method. To this aim, a researcher-made questionnaire was applied following the presence of the researcher in the target population. The validity was confirmed according to the ideas of professionals in this field and the reliability of the questionnaire was assessed by Cronbach’s alpha using the SPSS software (version 22). RESULTS: The results of the research demonstrated that the highest frequency was for the age group of 31 to 40 years. In terms of experience, we observed that the highest frequency was for the age group of 6 to 10 years. In addition, the highest frequency of educational level was found for the associate degree with 141 people. Regarding the employment location, 58 individuals were center staff and 176 people were operational. In addition, data analysis showed that management factors, human error, training, inspection, and monitoring, in addition to physical, and environmental variables, information system, guidelines, specialized technologies, facilities, and support affect the management of marine hazards in the Makran coast. CONCLUSION: The results of ranking and prioritizing of effective factors in marine hazards management utilizing the Friedman test showed that guidelines, training, management, human errors, specialized technologies and facilities, support, inspection and monitoring, information system, and physical and environmental variables were reported as the first to eighth ranks, respectively.
۱۳.

Combination of SWOT Analysis, Analytic Hierarchy Process, and Monte Carlo Simulation to Identify the Strategic Positioning of Crisis Management at the Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran(مقاله پژوهشی وزارت بهداشت)

تعداد بازدید : ۲۴۴ تعداد دانلود : ۱۱۱
INTRODUCTION: Iran has long been recognized as one of the most accident-prone areas in the world due to its special geographical location. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to devote special attention to crisis management in organizations and the identification of related strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. METHODS: The present study aimed to identify the strategic positioning of crisis management after natural disasters at the Ferdowsi University of Mashhad as the center of excellence in the east of the country. To this end, the internal and external factors which militate against university crisis management were identified. Thereafter, the strategic positioning of this university was determined among four positions, namely offensive, defensive, adaptive, and contingency, using a combination of SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and Monte Carlo simulation, and strategies were presented. The statistical population were university facility experts and managers among whom 10 cases were selected by purposive sampling. FINDINGS: Based on the obtained results, the highest weights in different sub-criteria were as follows: compliance with the required technical and safety standards in new constructions of the university campus (strength), the absence of any specific plan for dealing with various types of crises in different buildings (weakness), the proximity of the fire station to the university campus (opportunity), and indecisiveness of organizations supervising building retrofitting, including provincial government and Roads and Urban Development Office (threat). CONCLUSION: The results of the present study demonstrated that strategic positioning can be identified by analyzing internal and external factors. Moreover, among the four strategic positions, it was found that the Ferdowsi University of Mashhad adopted an offensive crisis management strategy in 45.4% of the cases.
۱۴.

Designing an Optimal Crisis Management Model with the Approach of Human Resource Management System in the Iranian Red Crescent Society(مقاله پژوهشی وزارت بهداشت)

تعداد بازدید : ۳۵۷ تعداد دانلود : ۱۷۳
INTRODUCTION: In times of crisis and disasters, the Red Crescent Society is faced with wide and diverse duties and quality of human resources (HRs) in management departments and high organizational levels. One of the most important reasons for the success of HR projects in crises is the sufficient attention paid to the job requirements and the feasibility of implementing each of the crisis management strategies at different levels of the organization. Therefore, this study was conducted to present the current state of HR architecture of the organization based on the HR management system considering the HR architecture model in 2020. METHODS: In this study, the Delphi method was used to collect the necessary data. The statistical population of this study (n=15) consisted of academic and organizational experts who had expertise in crisis management and HR management. The samples were selected using purposive and snowball sampling techniques. To conduct the research, a 30-item questionnaire (each item representing a variable) was designed with applying weight restrictions in the model and distributed among the subjects. The reliability of each variable was confirmed using Cronbach's alpha coefficient method (α>0.7). FINDINGS: Based on the findings, in the optimal HR management system, the most attention should be paid to recruiting HRs to have the highest performance speed in crisis management. Moreover, to have the least uncertainty in crisis management, HR improvement needs the most attention. It was also found out that the least amount of organizational disorder in crisis management would be experienced by devoting great attention to the maintenance of HR. Finally, to have the most response options in crisis management, recruitment of HR should be taken into consideration mostly CONCLUSION: The greatest attention should be paid to recruiting HRs in the optimal HR management system to have the largest number of response options in crisis management. This means that, according to the conceptual model, the emphasis on employing analyst staff would maximize the number of response options in times of crisis incidence. Therefore, to succeed in this field, the organization must reconsider its recruitment policies in a way that leads to the entry of capable employees with the ability to solve problems in the organization. The ability to suggest and review different solutions in problem-solving and make the best decision are largely an inherent characteristic of individuals. The recruitment of capable people in this field would increase the options for dealing with the crisis and improve the efficiency of the decisions and actions. The second and last priorities in this area were respectively related to maintenance and improvement.
۱۵.

Climate change effects Management with the approach of the uncertainty of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models in Hamadan Province, Iran(مقاله پژوهشی وزارت بهداشت)

تعداد بازدید : ۲۶۸ تعداد دانلود : ۱۹۷
INTRODUCTION: Since Iran is located in the semi-arid belt, it has faced such issues as drought, dust crisis, and intensified migration. The assessment of the effects of climate change includes identifying some key aspects of uncertainties used to estimate its impacts, such as uncertainties in the context of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs): in regional-scale climatology, in statistical or dynamic downscaling methods, and parametric and structural uncertainties in different models. One of the most important sources of uncertainty in climate change is the use of different AOGCMs that produce different outputs for climate variables. METHODS: In this study, to investigate the uncertainty of AOGCM models, the downscaled data of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections dataset obtained from 21 AOGCMs with medium Representative Concentration Pathway4.5 scenario were downloaded from the NASA site for 81 cells in Hamadan Province, Iran. After the validation of the models, they were evaluated against the criteria of the coefficient of determination and model efficiency coefficient in comparison with the data of the Hamedan synoptic station in the statistical period of 1976-2005. To reduce the uncertainty of AOGCMs, the ensemble performance (EP) of models was used in Climate Data Operators software. FINDINGS: It was revealed that MRI-CGCM3, MPI-ESM-LR, BNU-ESM, ACCESS1-0, MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and MPI-ESM-MR models had better performance than similar models. It was also found that IPSL-CM5A-LR, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, CESM1-BGC, and GFDL-ESM2M had the lowest correlation between observational and simulation data of mean monthly precipitation. CONCLUSION: According to the results, this method could provide a good estimate in the base period (1976-2005), compared to the data of the Hamedan synoptic station, and was more accurate compared to the single implementation method of each AOGCM model. The results of EP of models in the future period (2020-2049) showed that precipitation will not change considerably in the future and will increase by 0.23 mm. In addition, the average, maximum, and minimum annual temperatures will increase by 1.54°C, 1.7°C, and 1.40°C, respectively.
۱۶.

A Strategic Approach to Crisis Management 2019 Golestan Province Floods by Using SWOT Method(مقاله پژوهشی وزارت بهداشت)

تعداد بازدید : ۳۵۷ تعداد دانلود : ۱۴۵
INTRODUCTION: At the time of natural disasters, various organizations are responsible for crisis management. Each organization holds responsibilities corresponding to its mission statement. The absence of coordination is one of the primary obstacles regarding crisis management at the time of the disaster, caused by inconsistent decisions and a lack of mutual perception of the crisis. The more compatible the strategy selection process of organizations is, the fewer natural disaster casualties will be. METHODS: This study aims to strategically analyze the crisis management of April 2019 Golestan floods through the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) method, highlighting the role and performance of the Red Crescent Society. The selected tool was a descriptive-analytic field-based documentation survey questionnaire providing the chance to investigate the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Finally, we determined the optimal strategy. FINDINGS: The results revealed that the average values of internal and external factors for all units were above 2.5. Therefore, SO is the optimal strategy whose emphasis is on using the strengths and opportunities faced by the Red Crescent Society to the fullest and other flood management bodies. CONCLUSION: Considering that the crisis-management-related agencies ought to operate as a unified system to decrease casualties, the need to adopt proper strategies to enhance coordination in associated organizations is one of the leading priorities of Golestan Province.
۱۷.

Identification of effective factors in impressive settlement of community oriented crisis managemen(مقاله پژوهشی وزارت بهداشت)

تعداد بازدید : ۵۹۰ تعداد دانلود : ۱۱۵
INTRODUCTION: In recent years, the community-oriented approach has been proposed as one of the approaches used in crisis management. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the factors affecting community-oriented crisis management in Iran. METHODS: Initially, the subject of the study was defined and initial exploratory and library studies were conducted. Subsequently, the relevant factors and components were identified through the Delphi method and a researcher-made questionnaire and were then provided to the experts to give their opinions. These factors and components underwent analysis by statistical methods after that the qualitative and quantitative corrective opinions of the experts were received. Finally, the experts' consensus was reached regarding the appropriateness of the model, components, and the combination of factors. The study population in this section consisted of 28 academics and professionals familiar with the subject selected using a judgmental sampling method. Subsequently, to test the model, a researcher-made questionnaire was distributed among 353 selected individuals of the local community of South Khorasan Province, Iran, who were selected by random clustering method. The collected data in this section were analyzed in Smart PLS software (version 3) using confirmatory factor analysis. FINDINGS: The research findings included the validation of the model through the Delphi method and the test of the final model through confirmatory factor analysis. CONCLUSION: The results showed that four categories of preventive, preparatory, confronting, and reconstructive factors were effective on community-oriented crisis management, among which, preparatory factors with an impact factor of 33.5 had the greatest impact on community-oriented crisis management.
۱۸.

Applications of the Blockchain Technology in Emergency Crisis Management and Population Rescue Processes(مقاله پژوهشی وزارت بهداشت)

تعداد بازدید : ۴۷۹ تعداد دانلود : ۱۳۷
INTRODUCTION: Communication and information exchange are of great importance in order to coordinate crisis management in an emergency and rescue processes. Therefore, the attainment of a strong, complete, and stable communication infrastructure will be among the vital factors for providing an appropriate response to emergencies. The use of new technologies that seem to ensure reliable communication and information exchange must be constantly evaluates. METHODS: This review study searched articles published from 2000 to 2021 in Persian and English regarding blockchain technology applications in such databases as Google Scholar, Science Direct, and PubMed using keywords, including rescue, blockchain, and crisis management. FINDINGS: Accurate and optimal presentation of information is an essential prerequisite for crisis management in response to disasters due to the significant impact of each role-maker's decisions. Innovative blockchain technology is extensively used in various fields and is usually well-known and popular for its decentralized and distributed organization and leadership. CONCLUSION: In general, blockchain technologies have shown success in reducing logistics, support, executive, and management costs in different areas. Crisis management in emergencies and disaster response can be significantly improved by the implementation of blockchain technologies. In addition, studies show that the implementation of blockchain technology in crisis management during an emergency and rescue processes is very complex and requires a great deal of cooperation from all parties. However, it will be effective in practice.
۱۹.

Pathology of Takhti and Imam Reza Football Stadiums in Mashhad with Emphasis on Passive Defense(مقاله پژوهشی وزارت بهداشت)

تعداد بازدید : ۳۴۴ تعداد دانلود : ۱۶۸
INTRODUCTION: Nowadays, paying attention to the significance of football stadiums as important urban facilities and applying the principles of passive defense in them are among critical areas in the field of urban management. Given that, the primary goal of the present research is to investigate the pathology of football stadiums with an emphasis on passive defense. METHODS: The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of the research approach. Data collection was accomplished through documentary and field studies. In the documentary domain, information and data were gathered from the website of sports complexes, publications, and brochures. Regarding the field domain, spatial data related to the city of Mashhad were collected from the database and field studies in the form of observations and interviews with stadium officials. The target stadiums in the present study are Takhti and Imam Reza stadiums, which were studied based on two main criteria of design and location selection based on the principles of passive defense. After specifying the indicators, Arc GIS software was used to perform data analysis and spatial analysis operations. FINDINGS: The research findings indicate that the most significant weaknesses of Takhti Stadium are the lack of access to first and secondary arterial roads, the presence of intersections and heavy traffic near the stadium, inadequate open space and parking lots, and lack of automatic fire suppression systems. The drawbacks of Imam Reza Stadium include the absence of shelter, no access to the subway stations, no direct access to primary arterial roads, and the absence of entrance and exit passageways in the stadium. CONCLUSION: The results indicate the fact that paying attention to the indicators and criteria of passive defense can extensively conserve and maintain sports facilities at times of crisis.
۲۰.

Explanation of Executive Model of IRIB News in Crisis Management(مقاله پژوهشی وزارت بهداشت)

تعداد بازدید : ۳۵۲ تعداد دانلود : ۱۵۹
INTRODUCTION: Due to the vulnerability of the country to various disasters and events, the role of directing public opinion, and the attention of the general public and political elites to Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), the present study aimed to obtain and explain an executive model of IRIB news in crisis management. METHODS: This study was conducted based on an applied research method in terms of objective, and it is qualitative research using an exploratory approach in terms of method. The statistical population consisted of experts, managers, and professors of media and crisis (Crescent Society and Crisis Management Organization). The data were collected using a semi-structured in-depth interview technique, and a saturation was observed using a targeted sampling and after 25 interviews. In addition, the Strauss method in grounded theory was applied to analyze the data. Moreover, in the process of theory analysis, MAXQDA (version 2020) was applied, and a total of 120 concepts and 20 categories were identified. FINDINGS: Some categories, such as the unprofessional nature of media, unprofessional coverage of news, biased news organization, lack of media independence, public distrust, and tendency toward alternative media, are the requirements for explaining an executive model of news in crisis management, which are axially coded as causal conditions. In addition, appropriate news coverage, information, analytical programs, people's voice, crisis management principles and organization, education and informing, and culturalization, were the seven main categories selected as the main strategies to develop the model. CONCLUSION: Some categories, such as the improvement of media performance, de-escalation instead of crisis-making, rumor prevention, obtainment of public trust, accountability of officials, organizing and mobilizing human forces, social cohesion, increasing resilience, as well as reconstruction and rehabilitation, are of the consequences of using appropriate strategies to explain IRIB news in crisis management.