Simulating the Shareholders’ Behavior pattern in capital market considering the changing monetary policies of the central bank of Iran(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
The purpose of this article is to simulate the behavior pattern of shareholders in the Iran’s capital market according to the monetary policies of the Central Bank of Iran. The research method in the first stage was qualitative (interview) and in the second part it was quantitative (statistical and inferential tests). According to the purpose of the research, the research method was of fundamental-applied type and based on the research method of survey type. The statistical population of the research consists of the shareholders of the Tehran Stock Exchange, whose number was about 650 stock companies until the end of the fiscal year 2023. Semi-structured interviews with experts of this market have been used to identify model indicators. Then, by coding the data obtained from the interviews, a research questionnaire was designed. Finally, to extract the model from the factor-based model (ABM) using the exploratory factor analysis method, Netlogo software was used for simulation.
The investigated period can be divided into three periods without applying a targeted monetary policy to control the behavior of shareholders. The first period is the period when economic variables such as exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate are constant. In this situation, the number of buyers in the capital market has increased and purchases have taken place in this market (in this purchase, the share of emotional buyers is higher). In the second period, when inflation decreases and the interest rate remains the same, the number of shareholders in the market is reduced, but purchases still occur, but the share of volatile buyers is higher in this period. In the third period, when the inflation rate and the interest rate both increase, with the greater effect of expansionary policies (increasing the volume of money) than the increase in the interest rate, the number of shareholders and the amount of purchases increase.
The study of the behavior of shareholders and their buying and selling in this market indicates that the profit from the buying and selling of volatile shareholders in the period under review is more than that of emotional shareholders and shareholders who hold their shares for a while in order to gain profit with a long-term view.
The results indicate that due to uncertainty, this market, which has the nature of long-term financing, has lost its function and the shareholders' view of this market is short-term profit.