تحلیل فضایی توسعه پایدار منطقه ژئوپلیتیک مکران مبتنی بر رویکرد همبست آب، غذا، انرژی با استفاده از شبیه سازی سیستمی (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان میناب) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
منطقه مکران واقع در جنوب شرقی ایران در مجاورت دریای عمان، دارای ظرفیت های بالقوه ای است که می توان از آن در راستای توسعه کشور بهره برد. مقاله حاضر جهت تحقق این هدف به تحلیل فضایی توسعه پایدار شهرستان میناب به عنوان دروازه ورودی منطقه با استفاده از شبیه سازی سیستمی مبتنی بر رویکرد همبست آب، غذا و انرژی تا افق 2050 در راستای پایداری منابع آب، پرداخته است. بنابراین با اجرای یک مدل مبتنی بر پویایی سیستم ها در راستای ارزیابی سیاست راه اندازی و توسعه آب شیرین کن های هسته ای، وضعیت سه متغییر اساسی شامل 1 . درصد تامین حجمی آب 2. جمعیت 3. تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه منطقه، تحت پنج سناریو شامل، راه اندازی آب شیرین کن اتمی با چهار ظرفیت اسمی 700، 1000، 1200، 1500مگاوات به انضمام ادامه وضع موجود مورد بررسی قرارگرفت. بنابر نتایج شبیه سازی، سیاست راه اندازی آب شیرین کن هسته ای منجر به تحقق اهداف توسعه پایدار و هر دو فرضیه مقاله در روند فرآیند ارزیابی، تایید شد.Spatial Analysis of Sustainable Development of Makran Geopolitical Region Based on the WEF Nexus Approach Using System Simulation (Case Study: Minab City)
Introduction
The Makran region, located at the southeastern coast of Iran along the Oman Sea, is recognized as one of the country’s most strategically sensitive areas. It possesses significant potential for development and national security. However, despite its importance, studies reveal a critical gap in the application of the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus approach in Iran, particularly in the context of comprehensive policymaking and system simulation. This gap underscores the novelty of the WEF nexus concept within the country and highlights the lack of effective research aimed at integrating this approach into holistic policy frameworks. This article addresses this gap by offering innovative solutions and insights. A key concern for the long-term sustainable development of the Makran region is the neglect of the WEF nexus approach in regional policies, particularly the oversight of water resources, which is poised to become the most critical future crisis in the area. Without foresight and a sustainable development strategy grounded in the WEF nexus perspective, the economic, social, and environmental structures of the region are at risk of severe disruption. To address this challenge and advance the goals of sustainable development, this study focuses on Minab city, the gateway to the Makran region. It employs spatial analysis and system simulation based on the WEF nexus approach to assess the sustainability of water resources up to the year 2050.
Methodology
The methodology employed in this article is analytical and relies on the application of simulation models. Central to this approach is the use of systems dynamics, a powerful tool for evaluating the evolution of processes over time. Systems dynamics is a methodological framework designed to develop and test mathematical models and computer simulations of complex, nonlinear, and dynamic systems (Sterman, 2000:6). This method enables the exploration of interactions and feedback loops within systems, providing insights into their behavior and potential outcomes under various scenarios.
The implementation of system simulation in this study is carried out using Vensim software, following a structured sequence of steps. These steps include the creation of causal and feedback loops, the development of stock and flow diagrams, and the execution of simulations. Additionally, the process involves drawing system structures, defining model boundaries, and designing subsystem diagrams. Causal and feedback diagrams are constructed to visualize relationships within the system, while policy structure diagrams are developed to assess the impact of potential interventions. The simulation model is then built, rigorously tested, and refined to ensure accuracy and reliability. Finally, policies are designed and evaluated based on the model’s outputs (Forrester, 1994:247).
Results and Discussion
This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the interactions among total water supply certainty, population dynamics, and regional GDP within the context of the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus, specifically focusing on the Makran region. The model explores the impact of implementing a nuclear water softener across four nominal capacities—700, 1000, 1200, and 1500 megawatts—while considering a control scenario that maintains the existing situation. The analysis of the simulation results, based on the WEF nexus approach and the "linked triangle" of the WEF nexus, considers the geopolitical positioning and geostrategic importance of the Makran region.
Conclusion
According to the simulation results, establishing a nuclear desalination plant in Minab city along the shores of Makran is projected to enhance water resources, leading to sustainability across economic, social, and environmental dimensions. This development will contribute to achieving the goals of sustainable development. Consequently, both hypotheses of the article are confirmed: Sustainable development in the Makran region (specifically Minab city) until 2050, in line with theories of growth limitation and sustainable development, will not be feasible without the evaluation and implementation of effective policies supporting water resource sustainability. Spatial evaluation of sustainable development in the Makran region, focusing on the correlation among water, food, and energy, can be conducted using a systems dynamics approach. This assessment process will involve evaluating the energy-based water resource development policy outlined in the relevant upstream documents through system simulation.
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