تحلیل نقش عوامل پیشرو و موانعِ شکل گیری سازمان منطقه ای خلیج فارس (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
منطقه ژئوپلیتیک خلیج فارس با وجود زمینه های مشترک متعدد، تاکنون در فرایند منطقه گرایی موفق عمل نکرده است. این پژوهش با روش توصیفی- تحلیلی، به دنبال بررسی و ارزیابی مهمترین عوامل پیشرو و موانع شکل گیری سازمان منطقه ای خلیج فارس است. در بخش مطالعه کتابخانه ای، مهمترین عوامل و زمینه های همگرایی و واگرایی گردآوری و سپس با استفاده از روش «کدگذاری و مقوله بندی» غربال شد و در نهایت در قالب عوامل پیشران و بازدارنده و در پنج بُعد اقتصادی، سیاسی، دفاعی- امنیتی، سرزمینی و فرهنگی- اجتماعی طبقه بندی شد. در مرحله بعد پرسشنامه ای تنظیم و با ترجمه به زبان عربی و انگلیسی در اختیار صاحب نظران همه کشورهای منطقه قرار گرفت. جهت ارزیابی وزن و اهمیت عوامل پیشران و بازدارنده در تشکیل سازمان منطقه ای خلیج فارس، از روش معادلات ساختاری PLS استفاده شد. یافته های پژوهش نشان می دهد، در عوامل پیشران، بُعد دفاعی- امنیتی و فرهنگی- اجتماعی بیشترین تأثیر و بُعد سیاسی کمترین تأثیر و در بین عوامل بازدارنده، بُعد سرزمینی و بُعد فرهنگی- اجتماعی بیشترین چالش و بُعد اقتصادی کمترین چالش را داشته اند. همچنین در مجموع ابعاد پنجگانه و در متغیرهای پیشرو، متغیرهای «همکاری های دفاعی- امنیتی بین کشورهای منطقه»، «اسلام به عنوان دین مشترک»، «پیوستگی سرزمینی کشورهای منطقه»، «تأسیس نهادهای اقتصادی منطقه ای» و «وجود اهداف و منافع مشترک سیاسی» بیشترین تأثیر را داشته اند. در بین موانع شکل گیری سازمان منطقه ای خلیج فارس نیز، مهمترین موانع شامل «اختلاف مرزی و سرزمینی»، «فعالیت نهادها و سازمان های دینی»، «وجود دکترین های دفاعی-امنیتی متعارض»، «نوع نگرش و مناسبات با رژیم صهیونیستی» و در نهایت«فقدان هم تکمیلی اقتصادی» می باشد.Analysis of the Role of Leading Factors and Obstacles to the Formation of a Regional Organization in the Persian Gulf
Introduction
The geopolitical region of the Persian Gulf includes eight countries that are connected by territorial proximity and various cultural, social, economic, defense, and security aspects. Despite these commonalities and the Persian Gulf's significant role in the global economic system, the regionalization process has been weak, with no regional organization featuring the comprehensive participation of all countries in the area emerging thus far.
Methodology
This research adopts a descriptive-analytical approach, utilizing credible library and field resources to examine the key drivers and obstacles to forming a regional organization in the Persian Gulf. During the library research phase, the most prominent integration and disintegration factors were gathered and assessed using the "coding and categorization" method. These factors were ultimately classified into 22 driving and 18 restraining elements across five dimensions: economic, political, defense-security, territorial, and cultural-social. A questionnaire was then developed and distributed to experts across all countries in the region, translated into Arabic and English. The Partial Least Squares (PLS) structural equation modeling method was applied to evaluate the weight and significance of the driving and restraining factors in establishing a regional organization in the Persian Gulf.
Results and Discussion
This research aims to investigate and evaluate the key driving factors and obstacles to forming the Persian Gulf Regional Organization. The establishment of any regional entity involves various contexts, obstacles, and challenges. Security stands out as the foremost concern for governments, and defense-security cooperation emerges as a primary area of collaboration that can foster security for all countries in the region.
Cultural and social characteristics, particularly religion and ethnicity, also play a vital role in promoting convergence among regional nations. Geographical coherence is often considered a foundational factor in the formation of regional organizations. The experience of creating regional organizations like the European Union demonstrates that economic cooperation often serves as the initial catalyst for regionalism, with economic factors significantly influencing the establishment of such organizations. Political components, including shared interests, goals, values, and political aspirations, contribute positively to the potential for a regional organization. However, the formation of these organizations also encounters fundamental challenges. Territorial issues, particularly disputes over borders, are significant obstacles to regional integration. Cultural and social factors can serve dual roles, promoting both convergence and divergence. The ideological nature of political systems, coupled with the influential role of religious leaders, can intensify cultural differences, leading to increased fragmentation. In the defense-security realm, conflicting security doctrines and an arms race among regional countries further complicate the potential for collaboration. Lastly, the diversity of political systems and ongoing disputes among countries in the region present serious challenges to the formation of a cohesive regional organization.
Conclusion
The research findings reveal that within the driving factors, the defense-security and cultural-social dimensions exert the most significant influence on the formation of a regional organization in the Persian Gulf, while the political dimension has the least impact. Conversely, among the deterring factors, the territorial and cultural-social dimensions present the greatest challenges, with the economic dimension posing the fewest obstacles to establishing a regional organization. Overall, across the five domains and among the leading variables, key factors impacting regional integration include defense-security cooperation among regional countries, Islam as a shared religion among the nations, territorial contiguity and geographical connectedness, the establishment of regional economic institutions like a customs union, and the existence of shared political goals, values, and interests. On the other hand, the most significant obstacles to forming a regional organization in the Persian Gulf are border and territorial disputes, the activities of religious and jurisprudential institutions within the countries, conflicting defense and security doctrines, the nature of relations between regional countries and the Zionist regime, and the lack of economic complementarity.
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