تحول در استراتژی های مدیریت بحران جمهوری اسلامی ایران در مقابله با رژیم صهیونیستی؛ گذار از نو واقع گرایی تدافعی به تهاجمی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
رفتار سیاست خارجی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در مدیریت بحران های امنیتی منطقه همواره مبتنی بر دکترین نوواقع گرایی تدافعی بوده است. با این حال، تغییرات سریع در نظم منطقه ای و اقدامات بحران آفرین رژیم صهیونیستی، نیاز به بازنگری در این استراتژی ها را نشان می دهد. این پژوهش با روش توصیفی-تحلیلی و بر اساس داده های اسنادی، به بررسی ضرورت تحول در دکترین امنیتی جمهوری اسلامی پرداخته استیافته ها نشان می دهد که رژیم صهیونیستی با بهره گیری از ابزارهایی همچون افزایش قابلیت بازدارندگی با حمایت ایالات متحده، استراتژی تغییر میدان بازی، موازنه سازی پنهان، تقویت ائتلاف های منطقه ای و امنیتی سازی ایران، در تلاش است تهدیدات امنیتی علیه جمهوری اسلامی را گسترش دهد. در مقابل، ایران با تکیه بر استراتژی های مبتنی بر نوواقع گرایی تدافعی، از جمله بازدارندگی متعارف، جنگ های نامتقارن، تقویت محور مقاومت و بهره گیری از مزیت ژئوپلیتیک خود، به دنبال حفظ امنیت و مقابله با این تهدیدات بوده است. بر اساس یافته های پژوهش، استراتژی های فعلی ایران با توجه به تحولات منطقه و پیچیدگی بحران ها، نیازمند گذار به دکترین نوواقع گرایی تهاجمی هستند. این دکترین باید بر افزایش توان تهاجمی، تقویت بازوهای ژئوپلیتیک، مدیریت بحران های کنترل شده و گسترش همکاری های استراتژیک با قدرت های منطقه ای و فرامنطقه ای تمرکز کند. این پژوهش بر لزوم بازاندیشی در سیاست های امنیتی جمهوری اسلامی تأکید دارد تا با بهره گیری از این رویکرد، بتواند جایگاه خود را در نظم جدید منطقه ای تثبیت و امنیت پایدار را تأمین کند.The Evolution of Crisis Management Strategies of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Confrontation with the Zionist Regime: A Shift from Defensive to Offensive Neorealism
The foreign policy behavior of the Islamic Republic of Iran in managing regional security crises has consistently adhered to the doctrine of defensive neorealism. However, rapid changes in the regional order and the crisis-inducing actions of the Zionist regime underscore the need for a reassessment of these strategies. Thus far, Iran has relied on the principle of self-help to address regional issues. This has involved enhancing defensive capabilities, establishing cross-border defensive deterrence through organizing and strengthening the Axis of Resistance, and, based on the prioritization of threats and strategic initiatives, engaging powers like Russia to control crises. Conversely, the Zionist regime has sought to counter Iran by forming regional alliances against it, leveraging covert partnerships with Arab states, developing integrated missile defense systems, and employing surprise tactics. Additionally, through a strategy of involving the United States in the region, it has attempted to escalate crises and securitize Iran as a serious existential threat to Tel Aviv, thus confronting the Islamic Republic of Iran more effectively. Beyond these conflicting research findings and given the complexity and dynamism of the Middle East's security order—shaped by the competition among regional actors and the intervention of extra-regional powers—a reassessment of the Islamic Republic of Iran's crisis management strategies appears essential. Moreover, in such a context, analyzing Iran's foreign policy behavior in competition with other regional actors, particularly the Zionist regime as a source of threat and crisis, holds significant research value. This is especially true considering its direct impact on the regional security process, the balance of power, deterrence, and Iran’s geopolitical advantages. In this regard, the present study adopts a forward-looking approach using a descriptive-analytical method based on documentary data to analyze and identify the most effective crisis management strategies of the Islamic Republic of Iran in addressing the crisis-inducing actions of the Zionist regime. In other words, this research seeks to answer the critical question: How should Iran’s current crisis management strategies within its security doctrine be revised? Addressing this question can contribute to the design of comprehensive and effective strategies in Iran’s foreign policy and national security domains.
Security-Oriented Foreign Policy of the Zionist Regime Against Iran: Key Strategies In recent years, the Zionist regime's security-centric foreign policy has relied on specific regional strategies in its confrontation with the Islamic Republic of Iran. These strategies include:
Deterrence through U.S. Support
The Zionist regime leverages comprehensive deterrence to enhance Israel's security guarantees via the United States against shared threats. This approach frames any aggression against Israel as an attack on the U.S. itself, potentially eliciting a nuclear response from the United States.
Game-Changing Strategies
This involves crisis creation near Iran’s borders, particularly through Azerbaijan and the Kurdistan Region, aiming to destabilize Iran’s immediate geopolitical environment.
Balancing via Regional Security Arrangements
Amid fluctuations in the U.S. commitment to regional security, the formation of a security regime between Israel and some Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members serves to maintain U.S. involvement in regional dynamics and counterbalance Iran. This "hidden balance" explains the silence and inaction of regional countries regarding events in Gaza, Lebanon, and even Syria.
Preemptive Operations and Confrontation with Iran
Based on the "war between wars" strategy, direct confrontation and military engagement with forces threatening Israel's security are central. The ultimate aim of this strategy includes targeting Iran’s military positions.
Weakening the Axis of Resistance and Disrupting Syrian Logistics
In the wake of the Gaza crisis and the collapse of the Assad government, the Zionist regime exploited the opportunity to destroy Syria’s military infrastructure and weaponry in the Golan Heights, achieving full control over the area. This strategy is part of Israel's broader policy to undermine Iran’s regional influence and force Tehran to retreat from its neighboring geopolitical zones.
Establishing Economic Corridors Centered on Israel
This strategy seeks not only to strengthen Israel's economic position in global markets but also to link the security of the occupied territories with regional security, thereby reducing the economic and military costs of Iran’s actions and the Axis of Resistance in the region.
Iran's Defensive Neorealism in Countering Zionist Regime Actions: Key StrategiesTo safeguard its independence, territorial integrity, and security, the Islamic Republic of Iran has consistently adopted a defensive neorealism approach in its foreign policy toward regional and international issues. In countering the Zionist regime's measures, Iran utilizes the following strategies:
Deterrence Strategy: Iran has prioritized enhancing retaliatory capabilities and diversifying its counter-strategic capacities across various domains.Developing missile and drone capabilities, bolstering its conventional deterrence capacity. This includes advancing defense industries and conducting cutting-edge research on military, missile, and defense technologies to equip armed forces and reduce dependency on foreign resources. Strengthening the Axis of Resistance as a psychological and ideological force in the region, leveraging allied groups to counteract adversarial actions. Advancing nuclear technology to enhance strategic deterrence while navigating international norms and pressures.
Asymmetric Warfare and Geopolitical Proxies: To establish strategic depth, Iran pushes security threats away from its borders by engaging adversaries in other territories, leading to the formation and empowerment of resistance groups in the region.
Missile Development and Military Strategies: Iran’s missile capabilities not only reinforce its deterrence posture but also serve as a substitute for foreign arms procurement, solidifying its self-reliant defense policy.
Leveraging Geopolitical Advantages
Focus on Naval Power: As part of its proactive strategy and pivot to crisis resolution through active participation, Tehran utilizes its geopolitical assets, particularly its strategic maritime presence, to address regional and extra-regional crises.This maritime focus enables Iran to assert influence across critical waterways, enhancing its role in regional stability and deterring external threats effectively.
The Gaza Crisis: Continuity in Policies or Strategic Reassessment
The Zionist regime's actions, including its efforts to extend the Gaza crisis to Lebanon and escalate regional tensions through initiatives such as the collapse of Syria, destruction of military assets, and seizure of strategic territories like the Golan Heights, reflect its intent to exploit asymmetric advantages. These include superiority in intelligence capabilities, extensive deterrence measures, and covert balancing strategies. The primary aim of these efforts is to increase Iran's security costs and weaken its influence by generating a chain of crises within the Axis of Resistance.
Tel Aviv seeks to employ strategies that not only address direct threats from Iran but also utilize strategic initiatives to place Iran in a difficult position. Within this framework, Israel has adopted new methods, tools, and approaches designed to surprise Iran and confuse its leadership. While Israel’s fundamental goal remains to expand the conflict in the region with Iran as the focal point, it now attempts to disrupt Iran’s calculations and create additional regional crises by diversifying its methods and dimensions of threat.In response, the Islamic Republic of Iran has demonstrated in operations such as "First and Second Promise of Truth" its commitment to structuring the battlefield and maintaining mutual deterrence within the framework of its previous strategies. However, Iran's countermeasures and retaliatory actions have yet to compel the Zionist regime to adopt more rational behaviors aligned with its national interests.
The Necessity of Transitioning from Defensive Neorealism to Offensive Strategies:Proposed Policies
Given the aforementioned circumstances and the unique dynamics of West Asia, the Islamic Republic of Iran must transition from defensive neorealism to offensive strategies in its crisis management approach. These policies should aim to strengthen deterrence capabilities, protect Iran's geopolitical interests, counter external threats, and sustain Iran's regional status. To this end, the following strategies should be prioritized within Iran’s security doctrine:
Adoption of Hybrid Warfare:<br />Iran's power in the evolving regional order necessitates enhancing its economic, technological, and public diplomacy capacities to engage in hybrid warfare effectively.
Enhancing Deterrence Across All Dimensions:<br />Bolstering Iran's deterrence capabilities in military, economic, and psychological domains to counter multifaceted threats.
Strengthening and Expanding Iran’s Geopolitical Proxies in the Region:<br />Developing deeper strategic depth by empowering regional allies and resistance forces.
Conflict Management and Participation in Controlled Crises:<br />Actively managing disputes and engaging in crises in a manner that limits escalation while advancing Iran's strategic goals.
Strengthening Strategic, Economic, and Diplomatic Cooperation with Major Powers:<br />Prioritizing partnerships with global powers like China and Russia to balance external pressures and reinforce Iran's regional position.
Promoting the Discourse of Resistance Against Israeli Hegemony Globally:<br />Advancing narratives of resistance to counter Israeli dominance and its influence in international forums.
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