بررسی اثر لحاظ مخاطره بر سطوح مصرف بهینۀ کود و سموم شیمیایی: مطالعۀ موردی استان مازندران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
با توجه به تاثیر استفاده از سموم و کودهای شیمیایی بر محیط زیست و همچنین، با در نظر گرفتن اینکه مخاطره (ریسک) مسئله ای جدایی ناپذیر از بخش کشاورزی است، هدف پژوهش حاضر حداقل سازی مصرف دو نهاده کود و سم با در نظر گرفتن مخاطره عملکرد در بخش کشاورزی بر اساس اطلاعات سال زراعی 1396-1395 بود. برای نیل به اهداف مطالعه، از الگوی برنامه ریزی آرمانی فازی استفاده و کلیه برآوردها در نرم افزار GAMS انجام شد؛ همچنین، از رهیافت CVaR به منظور ورود مخاطره در الگو استفاده شد. نتایج برآوردها نشان داد که الگوی آرمانی فازی، با در نظر گرفتن هر سه هدف، نسبت به الگوی بدون مخاطره، نتایجی بهینه تر به دست می دهد، زیرا الگوی به دست آمده به شرایط واقعی نزدیک تر است. با توجه به نتایج مطالعه، پیشنهاد می شود که الگوی مورد نظر برای هر کدام از محصولات به طور جداگانه و بر اساس اطلاعات هر محصول برآورد شود تا اهداف مورد بررسی به صورت منحصربه فرد برای آن محصول مشخص شود.Investigating the Effect of Risk on the Levels of Optimum Use of Fertilizers and Pesticides: A Case Study of Mazandaran Province of Iran
Introduction: Agriculture, as one of the main parts of development, plays a fundamental role in the economic development of countries. To develop this sector, farmers need suitable and acceptable policies and programs. It is important to pay attention to the fact that today, not only economic goals should be considered in agriculture, but as a source of damage in different areas, it is necessary to examine the environmental issues related to this sector. Furthermore, agriculture is an activity that comes with risk. Farmers live with risk and make decisions that affect agricultural yields. Therefore, this study aimed at concurrently reducing the usage of fertilizers and chemical pesticides, while also mitigating production risks.Materials and Methods: To attain the study objectives, the Fuzzy Goal Programming (FGP) model was utilized, with all estimations carried out in GAMS. Additionally, the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) model was employed to capture and assess risk within the model framework. In the context of a fuzzy environment, goal programming can be formulated as FGP, incorporating three types of fuzzy goals as described in the equation as follows:Where the sign ~ shows the fuzziness of the goal value. To establish the levels of goals within the model, initially, a distinct linear model was estimated for each of the study objectives.Top of Form The products in this study included wheat, barley, rice, corn, peas, lentils, sunflower, potato, onion, and Soybeans.Results and Discussion: The comparison of the current situation and the results of single-objective models showed that considering the two goals of minimizing fertilizer and pesticide together would reduce the consumption of these two inputs in the final model. In the next step, the objective of risk minimization was incorporated as a significant factor in the goal-fuzzy model. The model was then simultaneously estimated based on the three goals: minimizing fertilizer, minimizing pesticides, and minimizing risk. The results of the model indicated that the consumption of fertilizer and pesticides in the final model had decreased compared to other models and the current situation. Additionally, this approach resulted in a model with lower associated risk.Conclusions: Results of calculations showed that the FGP model considering three goals in comparison to the risk-free model would offer better results with nearer results to real conditions. Accordingly, this study suggested the concerned model to be used for each crop separately.
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