تعیین کننده های زمینه ای و ساختاری تمایل به مهاجرت از کشور در بین جوانان: مطالعه ای در شهر بوشهر (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
هدف مطالعه حاضر سنجش تمایل مهاجرتی نسل جوان (15-29 ساله) و بررسی نقش عوامل ساختاری و زمینه ای در شکل گیری خواست مهاجرتی آنان است. روش تحقیق مطالعه، پیمایش با استفاده از تکنیک پرسشنامه ساخت یافته است. جامعه آماری مطالعه 20656 نفر از جوانان 29-15 ساله شهر بوشهر و حجم نمونه شامل 378 نفر است. یافته های مطالعه بیانگر این است که تمایل مهاجرتی مردان، افراد متأهل، افرادی که در خانواده های پرجمعیت حضور دارند و همچنین اشخاصی که درآمد بالاتری دارند در مقایسه با دیگر افراد بالاتر است. براساس نتایج تحلیل رگرسیونی، متغیر های ساختاری و متغیر های زمینه ای 66 درصد از خواست مهاجرتی نسل جوان را تبیین می کنند. با توجه به مدل نظری تمایل/توانایی کارلینگ و مدل نهایی رگرسیون، متغیر های محیطی (نابرابری، امید به آینده) و مجرد بودن به عنوان یک متغیر زمینه ای و سطح خرد بالاترین أثرگذاری را در تبیین تمایل به مهاجرت نسل جوان دارند و در مجموع نابرابری مهم ترین تبیین کننده است. به طورکلی متغیر های ساختاری و محیطی نقشی تعیین کننده در شکل گیری تمایل به مهاجرت در نسل جوان داشته است.Tendency of Youth to International Migration: A Study of Contextual-Structural Determinants in Bushehr City, Iran
This study aims to evaluate the tendency for international migration among individuals aged 15-29 and to examine the impact of structural and contextual factors on this inclination. Utilizing a structured questionnaire, the research surveyed a sample of 378 from a statistical population of 20,656 residents in Bushehr aged 15-29. The findings indicate that individuals who are married, male, and belong to large families exhibit a stronger migration tendency than their counterparts. Results of regression analysis show that 66 percent of the youth's migration propensity is attributable to structural and contextual factors. According to Carling's aspiration/ability model, environment variables such as inequality, hope for the future, and life satisfaction, while the remaining 16% can be explained by other contextual factors and individual characteristics. Overall, structural and environmental factors significantly influence the youth's inclination towards international migration. IntroductionWhile internal migration has traditionally attracted more scholarly attention in Iran, international migration has become increasingly contentious with complex implications in recent years. Iran has witnessed a demographic shift towards a younger population, which, coupled with economic and social challenges, has heightened the importance of understanding this phenomenon. Recent studies have focused on various aspects of international migration, particularly among the youth population. Several studies have examined the influence of social, cultural, and political factors on the desire to emigrate from Iran (Ebrahimi, 2002; Javaheri & Serajzadeh, 2005; Moqaddas & Sharafy, 2009). Other studies have focused on globalization and cosmopolitan values (Zokaei, 2006), a sense of national identity and the significance of family and reference groups (Movahed & Niazi, 2008), the identity and role of the family and reference groups (Khajenouri & Shams, 2006), discrimination, economic and welfare conditions (Alaeddini et al., 2005), and the role of social networks (Sadeghi & Seyyed Hosseini, 2018). This study investigates the attitudes of 15–29-year-olds in Bushehr, an industrial city in south of Iran, towards emigration and identifies key factors influencing these attitudes. Considering Bushehr's favorable employment conditions due to the oil and gas industries, this research examines whether economic factors predominantly drive the youth's migration propensity or if other elements are also influential. Methods and DataThis study adopts a descriptive-analytical method, using a structured questionnaire for data collection. The statistical population includes 20,656 individuals aged 15-29 residing in Bushehr for at least five years. A sample size of 378 was determined using Cochran’s formula. Cluster sampling was used initially, followed by simple random sampling for final selection. The questionnaire covered demographic questions and concepts such as migration desire, inequality, belonging, familial relationships, and life satisfaction, based on the study's theoretical and empirical framework. The instrument's validity and reliability were confirmed through prior research and Cronbach’s alpha. FindingsThe findings indicate that individuals who are married, male, and belong to large families have a higher tendency for migration compared to the general population. Structural and contextual factors account for 66 percent of the migration propensity among the youth, as shown by regression analysis. Carling's aspiration/ability model suggests that environmental variables—such as inequality, future prospects, and life satisfaction—explain about 50 percent of the variance in the dependent variable. The remaining 16 percent is attributed to other contextual factors and individual characteristics at the micro level. In sum, structural and environmental elements play a crucial role in shaping the youth's migration tendencies. Conclusion and DiscussionThe theoretical framework by Carling (2002) and Carling & Schewel (2018) suggests that migration desires arise from both macroscopic and individual levels. In this study, macro-level environmental variables—such as inequality, hope for the future, and life satisfaction—have a more pronounced and effective role than micro-level variables like family and education. When considering both macro and micro variables, the model can more accurately and comprehensively analyze the tendency towards international migration than other theoretical models. The results, based on socioeconomic and demographic factors, allow for a more precise model of youth migration by expanding these factors into broader formats and structures. While this study highlights the prominence of structural factors, other researches indicate that the influence of these variables can vary regionally. To better understand the younger generation's migration inclination, it is advisable to compare at least two regions or provinces with different economic, social, demographic, and infrastructural conditions in future studies. Furthermore, it is recommended that a multi-level study examine the impact of structural and regional factors more thoroughly, incorporating the macro variables.
تبلیغات
