volatility

Efficient financial markets with high degree of transparency do not substantiate the hypothesis that there are differences in the volatility of return. Generally, there are factors rejecting any perfect similarity in the volatility of return in the emerging stock markets, as previous studies in Iran have confirmed the complete difference. On the other hand, the hybrid model PANEL-GARCH has the benefit of high process accuracy, suggesting that the evaluation of the similarity in the volatility of return at the level of market or industry constituent units is better than the simple technique of time series GARCH model for the entire market (instead of evaluation at unit levels). Therefore, the present study intends to investigate complete similarities or differences in the volatility of return in Iran's industries. Results showed that the assumption of complete difference in the volatility of return in the industries did not hold. The results of this process for Iran's industries covering the timespan between 16/2/2013 to 18/3/2017 showed that there are similarities in terms of the y-intercept of conditional mean and variance equations (1.1) PANEL-GARCH between the volatility of stock returns of 23 industries in the Tehran Stock Exchange as confirmed by LRT test. 

Prediction of stock returns is always one of the most important discussions of financial markets, which has led to introducing of various models to pricing financial assets, one of the most important of these models is to measure the surplus returns by Fama &  French model was introduced in the form of a 5-factor model which, in spite of its satisfaction with the model, is still in conflict with many anomalies in the market, which the model can not explain, in the same way The purpose of this paper is to examine the strength of Five Factor Model of Fama & French (2015) for explaining volatility as a market anomaly.The sample consists of 168 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. Portfolio Analysis is the approach of this paper for testing explanatory power of the Five Factor Model. Results show that profitability and investment factors couldn’t explain excess returns. This conclusion contradicts the model of Fama and French (2016).

Banks play an important role in the Iranian economy which has a bank-based financial system. We examined the impact of exchange rate volatility as a determinant of banks' performance. In recent years, the exchange rate has been volatile in the Iranian economy and have an adverse effect on banks' performance. This study, investigate the issue for the period 2007-2017 for 14 Iranian banks. Exchange rate fluctuations are derived by GARCH method and the effect of its fluctuations on bank performance examined using panel data method. In order to evaluate banks' performance, we used two criteria, namely liquidity and profitability. Estimation of econometric model using panel data by random effects indicated that exchange rate volatility has a negative and statistically significant effect on banks' capital return ratio. Exchange rate volatility is also a determinant in increasing the ratio of lending to total bank deposits, as it increases the financial gap and creates the credit risk that the gap entails. JEL: N10, G01, E44, C22.

Utilizing finance conceptual framework, this paper applies a Frontier-Volatility analysis to illuminate regulatory policies effects on volatility under Iranian Banking Prudential Framework over the period 2003 to 2015 using the raw database collected, classified and compiled by the Rahavard Novin Co. version 3, Securities and Stock Exchange Organization. Findings portray that volatility is affected by the regulatory policies. Tighter regulatory controls will lead to higher volatility that makes it tough for the central bank to regulate the system for culminating financial stability as well as difficulty of entry for the investors. Regulatory policies’ positive variations will also lead to lower share revenues as well as a decrease in the earning per share (EPS) that will make it volatile and also will heighten the liquidity risk causing volatility as well as lower investment and shared revenues fluctuate the performance. Furthermore, economic growth has been ineffective on volatility in the current period although its effect has been positive and significant in the first lag period. Higher assets circulations cause higher and significant volatility. The debt proportion coefficient is positive and significant as expected that financial institutions gain more through higher leverage leading to higher volatilities in earnings. JEL Classification: C51, C58, G58, F82, G21

The Central Bank of Iran banned online currency trading through Forex brokers in November 2016. However, some Iranian speculators still trade in the online Forex market. Is this prohibition on Forex trading reasonable? According to reports, the majority of Forex day traders fail and leave the market within six months to a year. Some scholars attribute this failure to the changeable characteristics of the losing traders, including low startup capital, failure to manage risk, lack of discipline, and impatience. The purpose of this study was to explore why the majority of traders fail and to investigate the relationship between the Forex market features and the risk of failure. We developed a previous model to address this issue. Given the Forex market is a zero-sum game; the break-even point of the representative player was formulated. The model and simulation results indicated that the expected likelihood of loss is directly related to market features such as leverage, volatility, and the frequency of trading. The minimum rate of expected return, high volatile days, and spread were the other factors affecting the risk of loss. In conclusion, the study confirms the extremely high level of risk in Forex trading, which is inappropriate for the majority of individual investors. Moreover, policymakers need to consider the high risk of loss in this market, and some appropriate regulations seem reasonable on the Forex trading.

Compared with net earnings, the components of earnings are more informative in companies whose components have different qualities of persistence and volatility. We examine the issue of whether net earnings together with their components have more information content than only net earnings. We construct a model to describe the effect of components volatility and their persistence through disaggregation of earnings value relevance and predictability. The analyses in our study are based on 600 firm-year observations in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for the period 2005- 2019. Data are derived from RAHAVARD NOVIN Iranian software and firms' financial statements. The statistical tests for data analyses are the difference of means test (t-test) and regression analyses. The results of the current study indicate that as the persistence and volatility of selected components of earnings (sales, employee expenses, other selling, general and administrative expenses, and income taxes) increase, earnings disaggregation can improve earnings predictability. Furthermore, when the volatility of employee expenses increases, disaggregated earnings can improve earnings value relevance. As the value relevance of net earnings has been declined over the past decades, the results of the current study suggest that earnings disaggregation plays a major role in improving earnings value relevance and their predictability.

Financial markets are currently experiencing sharp volatility. Studying how the returns and volatility in one market affect other markets has always been one issue that helps investors and policymakers to make optimal decisions. Given the importance of volatility spillovers in the Iranian financial market, this study aimed to investigate the mechanisms behind the volatility spillovers in the foreign exchange, gold, and stock markets to the oil market in Iran. This descriptive study was conducted using the daily and monthly data from the oil, foreign exchange, gold, and capital markets from 2010 to 2019 and to analyze the data, ARCH and GARCH models have been used. The results of this study showed that the abnormal volatility of the foreign exchange and gold in the previous day positively affects the abnormal volatility of the oil market today, this indicates that money flows in the currency market, spilling over the fluctuations into the oil market. hey also found that the abnormal volatility of the capital market in the previous day negative affects the abnormal volatility of the oil market today, indicating that if money flows in the capital market, which indicates the flow of money in the capital market from yesterday, increasing the transfer of emotions to the current capital market but does not spillover into the oil market and volatility is not transferred into the oil market. Overall, the findings of this study confirmed the positive impact of the foreign exchange and gold markets on the abnormal volatility in the oil market in the short term (daily) and long term (monthly), but did not confirm the positive impact of the capital market on the abnormal volatility in the oil market.

The stock market is one of the main components of the economy, and various factors cause fluctuations in it, one of which is the effect of investors' behavior. Therefore, present study seeks to answer the question of whether the feelings and sentiments of investors might intensify the fluctuations in the Tehran Stock Exchange or not. To answer this question, at first, in order to quantify sentiments, as non-abstract variables, the Equity Market Sentiment Index (EMSI) was used that investors are classified in 5 categories of completely risk-averse, risk-averse, neutral-risk, risk-taking and completely risk-taking. Using GARCHi-in-Mean, results indicate that the sentiments of investors will result in greater fluctuations in the Tehran Stock Exchange. Hence, if fluctuation is considered an indicator of market risk, the excitement associated with an abnormal rise in volumes will increase that risk.