محمدحسین آرمان

Financial markets are currently experiencing sharp volatility. Studying how the returns and volatility in one market affect other markets has always been one issue that helps investors and policymakers to make optimal decisions. Given the importance of volatility spillovers in the Iranian financial market, this study aimed to investigate the mechanisms behind the volatility spillovers in the foreign exchange, gold, and stock markets to the oil market in Iran. This descriptive study was conducted using the daily and monthly data from the oil, foreign exchange, gold, and capital markets from 2010 to 2019 and to analyze the data, ARCH and GARCH models have been used. The results of this study showed that the abnormal volatility of the foreign exchange and gold in the previous day positively affects the abnormal volatility of the oil market today, this indicates that money flows in the currency market, spilling over the fluctuations into the oil market. hey also found that the abnormal volatility of the capital market in the previous day negative affects the abnormal volatility of the oil market today, indicating that if money flows in the capital market, which indicates the flow of money in the capital market from yesterday, increasing the transfer of emotions to the current capital market but does not spillover into the oil market and volatility is not transferred into the oil market. Overall, the findings of this study confirmed the positive impact of the foreign exchange and gold markets on the abnormal volatility in the oil market in the short term (daily) and long term (monthly), but did not confirm the positive impact of the capital market on the abnormal volatility in the oil market.

This study was conducted to determine the stock portfolio with the best return and low-risk investments using momentum-contrarian strategies (MCSs). The momentum-Contrarian strategy is one of the well-known models to construct the portfolio which suggests buying the stocks with the best performance (the winner stocks) and selling the stocks with the worst performance (the loser stocks). The optimal values of the portfolio's objective function and the weight of all assets in the portfolio that are not necessarily the same are calculated by defining a nonlinear multivariate optimization model combined with momentum-contrarian strategies (MCSs). The return information of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange from 2014 to 2019 was used to select the best optimal portfolio. The results confirmed the stability in the profitability of the contrarian optimal portfolio with minimum risk compared to other optimal portfolios. Furthermore, through MATLAB software the optimal weight of assets in the optimal portfolio is calculated based on statistical data.

This study examines trading strategies based on trading systems by analyzing the performance of 11 technical indicators. The data used for analysis were financial data of all firms listed on the Teh-ran Stock Exchange in the period from 2010 to 2020. Excluding the firms whose data were not available for the period under study, 135 firms were selected as the research sample. The results showed that the signals containing three indicators of moving average, exponential moving average, and relative strength over a weekly up to six-month period to buy or sell stocks (as a strategy) could be used more confidently compared to other indicators to achieve higher returns and profitability. As a result, investors can use the signals that these three indicators in weekly (EMA) and monthly (MA, RSI) periods and the quarterly (MA) and six-month (RSI, EMA) periods to determine buying and selling strategies with the lowest investment risks. It is also recommended that investors use a combination of these three indicators to invest, and extend their investment period over a longer period of time to bear less risk, and more returns.