مصیب پهلوانی

The present study has made an attempt to discuss the effects of exchange rate volatility and price expectation on maize imports in Iran from 1980 to 2013. In doing so, using the EGARCH technique for time series econometrics, price volatility variables for both exchange rate and final price have been calculated, and the time series for these variables have been extracted. Additionally, in regard to the expected import price, the related time series has been extracted using Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP). The empirical results indicate that exchange rate volatility and price volatility have had no significant effects on maize import, which is due to the fact that maize is a basic commodity and is imported by the official currency, therefore domestic price volatilities and the exchange rate do not have significant effects on maize imports. However, by freezing the exchange rate and not allocating official currency, the possibility of the exchange rate volatility affecting maize imports exists and this issue could affect the whole country’s food security. JEL Classification: Q17, F13, F31

Consumption is the principal feature of Iran€™s Gross National Production. Therefore, recognizing of factors that influence it is quite crucial. This article, investigates habit formation, durability, relative risk aversion and intertemporal substitution in consumption expenditures of Iranian households. For empirical study, at first, we constructed two weighted portfolio of the main assets return that households hold them. Then, by using generalized method of moments, we examined some models with the mentioned factors in pattern of households€™ consumption for 1979-2012 periods. Our Empirical findings indicated that for durable goods, the effect of habit persistence dominated the effect of durability in consumption expenditures and for semi durable goods vice versa. Also, for semi-durable and durable goods the effect of durability dominated the effect of habit formation. Furthermore, the results indicate that coefficients of relative risk aversion and elasticity of intertemporal substitution are between 0.25 to 0.95 and 1.05 to 4, respectively.    JEL Classification: C26, D91, G11

This paper examines the gap between marginal cost and the price of 22 manufacturing industries in Iran at ISIC 2-digit level and 32 industries at a 3-digit level during 1995-2015 compared to selected countries. It examines the gap by using the Hall-Roeger model. We found that in garments, basic chemicals, non-metallic mining, and refined petroleum products, the price and marginal cost difference are high and in tobacco industries are low. In 3 out of 22 industries at ISIC 2- digit level and in 11 out of 32 industries at 3-digit level, Iranian industries have higher markups and a significant gap between price and marginal cost than Japan, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Also from 32 industries in ISIC 3-digit level and 22 industries in 2-digit level, Iran has the lowest mark-up in the tobacco industry with 1.03 and in chemical products with 2,33, has the highest markup. JEL Classification:   , , 

By utilizing the new Keynesian stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model, this paper examines the effects of credit easing policy on macroeconomic variables with or emphasizing on production. For this purpose, a model has been design including 5 sectors of household, enterprises, banks, government and central bank. Considering the dominance of fiscal policy over monetary policy in the Iranian economy, the integrated constraint of the government and the central bank has been used. The model has been estimated using Bayesian method and quarterly time series data during 1991 to 2017. The results of Impulse Response Function show that implementation of this policy has increased consumption, investment, government spending and ultimately production, which indicates the effectiveness of this unconventional monetary policy to get the economy out of recession. Also, in response to the positive impulse of the central bank’s credit line to banks and the negative impulse of legal reserves, bank facilities increase, which is in line with theoretical expectations. The impact of the negative impulse of interbank market rate has also led to an increase in production credits. 

During the last three decades, financial sanctions have been imposed on Iran by the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations Security Council. This paper aims at estimating the effect of financial sanctions on the import of capital and intermediate goods in Iran, which was carried out for two independent time periods. The first period (2010-2013) includes multilateral financial sanctions, and the second period (2016-2019) includes multilateral sanctions and the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA. We examined the impact using the difference-in-difference (DID) method. The results of the first period indicate that the decrease in the imports of capital and intermediate goods in Iran depends more on the countries that "provided the sanctions plan" than the countries that did not provide the sanctions plan, because the coefficient of dummy variable for implementation in the random effects model is statistically significant. The negative effect of 0.007 on imports shows that the effect is weak, because this group of countries behaved differently. In the second period, the random effects model is statistically significant. In this model, the negetive effect of 0.22 on imports indicates a significant effect. Therefore, the reduction of Iran's imports in this period depends more on the countries that provided the sanctions plan than the countries that did not provide the plan.

Financial sanctions have economic consequences for the oil-dependent economies. We examined the impact of financial sanctions on exchange rate fluctuations and macroeconomic variables in Iran. To this end, we employed a new Keynesian DSGE model. The results indicated that with the shock in foreign exchange, production (Y) and imports initially decreased. Oil production has shown a positive reaction initially and a negative reaction in the medium term, and after 7 periods, the effect of the shock has disappeared. The capital stock (K) also decreased initially, and in two periods, it reacted positively. In the tenth period, its effect disappeared, and in the long term, it became partially negative, and its effect disappeared. The inflation rate has decreased initially, and its effect disappeared over time. Consumption decreased, and after five cycles, the reaction became positive and then disappeared. The interest rate increased initially and then decreased, and in the 10th period, the shock effect disappeared. The exchange rate initially decreased and then increased after one period.

In recent decades, many countries have improved systematic control over monetary policy and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. There is a great literature on how to conduct a monetary policy. A lot of macroeconomists (for example Taylor, McCallum, Woodford and others) proposed specific monetary policy strategies, regimes and rules. This paper considers a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE), and two basic factors have been applied. The first one is a belief that monetary policy has impact on real economic activity in the short run. This effect comes from the presence of rigidities, which give rise to non-neutral effects of a monetary policy. The second factor is a considerable improvement under theoretical frameworks used for monetary policy analysis. The research also presents a sensitivity analysis of the optimal rules to deep structural parameters and investigate properties of an optimal simple rule with respect to prevailing type of shocks. Finally, the study highlights how an optimal policy rule depends on model structure, on the model calibration and nominal rigidities. According to the research findings, based on the theoretical expectations, the effect of a positive shock inflicted on the government investment leads to increase and gradual accumulation of fixed capital formation in the public sector. Among estimated parameters consumption is first affected and reduces, then employment increases consequently, finally production will also be affected. Also with the shock of oil revenues, increased oil revenues results in public investment at first, because the increase in oil revenues, the government increases development expenditure. Though increase in development expenditure is more than Increase in current expenditure. Enhancing development expenditure & construction spending causes total spending increase and as a result of increased production of oil income, consumption and total investment will rise. This increase leads to inflation too. Though by increasing the inflation resulted from oil revenues, the monetary authority will react through reducing the growth rate of the monetary base.

Financial sanctions have many economic consequences for the oil exporting economies. The sanctioned economy adopts economic policies to deal with it. This paper examines the relationship between financial sanctions, oil revenues and monetary and fiscal policies in Iran and explicates how financial sanctions have affected Iran's access to oil revenues. It also examines the role of fiscal and monetary policies in financial stability and resilience in Iran's economy. To this end, we employed a DSGE model with the new Keynesian approach. The results indicate that the interest rate, consumption, imports and inflation have a positive reaction to the oil revenue shock resulting from financial sanctions. However, the production, export, private sector investment and oil sales indicate a negative reaction to the oil revenues’ shock. Regarding the monetary policy shock, the reaction of production and consumption to the shock is positive. However, the reaction of oil sales and interest rate to this shock is negative. In terms of financial policy shock, production, consumption, investment and export indicated a positive reaction to this shock. However, the interest rate, imports and oil sales indicated a negative reaction to the fiscal policy shock. Monetary and fiscal policy shocks increase the effect of financial sanctions for a short period, while monetary policy shock has reduced the effect of financial sanctions for three periods. Therefore, monetary policy has been more effective than fiscal policy in reducing the effect of financial sanctions.