سید حسین میرجلیلی

In this study we examined output gap in the Iranian economy. The main question of the study is that how much is seasonal output gap in Iranian Economy and which factor affects gap variation. The other question is that whether using HP-F as a statistical based method for estimating output gap, provide different result than using SVAR as theory based method. Accordingly the aim of study is to estimate potential output and thus output gap using two method and analysis of the result. We used two methods (Hodrick-Prescott Filter and SVAR) to estimate quarterly output gap for the period 1988:1-2008:4. The results pointed out that the estimation is not sensitive to the method and there is a close relation between oil revenue and output gap. In the period of 1998:3-1999:3, when oil price reduced to $11.45 per barrel, Iranian economy faced with a recession and it affected on output gap with a lag. Output gap increased from 34818 in 2004:1-76782 million dollars in 2008: 4. The comparison of estimated output gap and changes of oil price in different periods point out the positive relation. According to the estimations of output gap, output gap in the Iranian Economy has intense fluctuation due to the effects of oil proceeds fluctuations. In some years, actual output is more than potential output, that is, output gap is positive and so this situation can be an important reason for inflation in that period and policy maker must do plans and policies for control of inflation and in some years, actual output is less than potential output and this means output gap was negative. This situation is a reason for unemployment in these years and therefore policy makers must do expansionary policies.

After the Islamic Revolution in Iran, investing in bonds by the private sector was recognized as incompatible in accordance with Islamic jurisprudence. Therefore Musharakah certificate substituted bond. Musharakah sukuk is bearer or registered securities issued based on certain par value for the certain period of time and sold to the investors which want to participate on execution of projects. Issuer, subject-matter of participation, on-account profit, agent and Trustee are the components of the sukuk in the Law concerned. Development of Musharakah sukuk in two phases, from it's commence in 1994 to now was explained in the article with the characteristic of some projects. In spite of remarkable successes of Musharakah sukuk in Irn, it faces some challenges.