سناریوهای فرا روی حکومت ها با ورود رمزارزها به جریانات مالی و پولی آن ها (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
امروزه اقتصاد یکی از ابعاد اصلی قدرت ها و حکومت ها است. در سال های اخیر، توسعه سریع رمزارزها توجه گسترده ای را از سوی محققان برانگیخته است، اگرچه ادبیات زیادی در مورد جنبه های مختلف ارز دیجیتال وجود دارد، اما درک مردم از اثرات اقتصادی و سیاسی رمزارها نسبتاً محدود است. نقش اثرگذار و قابل توجه رمزارزها و تأثیرات شگرف این نوع پول بر مناسبات بین حکومت ها که بعضاً می تواند تأثیرات شگرفی نیز بر شریان اقتصادی کشورها بگذارد، می تواند منشاء سناریوهایی بر این مناسبات باشد. لذا این پژوهش به دنبال ترسیم سناریوهای فرا روی حکومت ها با ورود رمزارزها به جریانات مالی و پولی آنها است. پژوهش از نوع کاربردی و از حیث ماهیت و روش، توصیفی اکتشافی است که ب ر پای ه رویک رد کیفی انجام شده و در پی گردآوری داده ها به منظور مفهوم سازی و ارائه تحلیل های تجویزی می باشد. جامعه آماری مدنظر پژوهش 20 نفر از اساتید دانشگاه، مدیران و کارشناسان وزارت خانه های ارتباطات و فناوری اطلاعات و اقتصاد و دارایی و سازمان های برنامه وبودجه و فناوری اطلاعات کشور هستند. شیوه گردآوری اطلاعات مطالعات کتابخانه ای و بهره گیری از روش آینده پژوهی پنل های خبرگی بود. به منظور سناریونویسی از روش سناریوپردازی GBN استفاده شد. با استفاده از این روش سناریونویسی، 12 کنشگر، 54 پیشران و چهار عدم قطعیت شناسایی شد که از برهم کنش عدم قطعیت ها 16 سناریو استخراج که با نظر خبرگان 5 سناریو باورپذیر ترسیم شد. این سناریوها به نام های «یکپارچگی مالی»، «افول اقتصادی»، «بازار نوپا»، «استراتژی نوآور» و «اقتصاد بینابینی دیجیتالی» ترسیم و نام گذاری شدند که می توانند مبنایی برای پیش نگری در خصوص پیامدهای سیاست های اقتصادی حکومت ها باشند.Scenarios facing governments with the entry of cryptocurrencies into their financial and monetary flows
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The development of different types of cryptocurrencies has caused this technology to find various applications in the economy of societies. This type of currency does not belong to any government and its value is determined by the demand of human society. Since digital currencies are electronic and do not have costs such as service fees, taxes, maintenance costs, etc., they are considered the most flexible type of money. However, it should be noted that the transfer of virtual money is not supported by any central service provider or institution. According to what has been discussed, nowadays, the implementation of governance in the world requires effective levers, one of the most important of these levers is the economic lever. Governments can use economic levers to shape political demands and take advantage of it, which is sometimes not the case in the field of cryptocurrencies and can become challenging issues in the economic and territorial fields of countries in the coming years. Considering the influential role of cryptocurrencies in the future economy of the world and the tremendous effects of this type of monetary channels on the relations between governments and sometimes their impact on the economic arteries of governments in the coming years, this research seeks to explain the scenarios of cryptocurrencies by entering into their financial and monetary flows. which addresses this issue by identifying the most important actors and drivers affecting the issue.
Methodology
The current research is applied in terms of its purpose and in terms of its nature and method, it is an exploratory description based on a qualitative approach and aims to collect data in order to conceptualize and provide prescriptive analysis. Considering the importance of the research subject and considering that its main goal is scenario development regarding the consequences of cryptocurrencies on the geo-economic policies of governments, it has been tried to pay attention to the effective factors and drivers in the various fields of cryptocurrencies and their economic policies. Therefore, the identification of heterogeneous and efficient experts has played a significant role in this research, and for this purpose, the statistical population of this research has been redefined and includes experts and experts who have the ability to provide analytical assistance to the research goals. Regarding the methods of information gathering and scenario writing method, first, in order to review the literature, a scientific and specialized library review was done, then in the next stages, brainstorming methods and expert panels were used. The main scenario writing method of the research is based on the Global Business Network (GBN) model scenario.
Results and discussion
In this article, based on the scenario method in the inferential approach, an attempt was made to identify important and influential actors on cryptocurrencies and their role on the governments' financial and credit policies, effective drivers and related uncertainties were also identified using experts' opinions. Based on the above findings, it is possible to write believable scenarios and finally five scenarios were drawn for the future of this field. The findings of the research showed that the key influential actors include the media and social networks with very large and popular users in the country (such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc.), scientific and academic societies inside and outside the country, international economic and financial institutions (such as the International Fund International Monetary Fund and FATF), financing of terrorism, opportunities and challenges of cryptocurrencies, and the most important drivers are the development of governance of digital currencies in the world, user trust in the exploitation and exchanges of digital currencies, the formalization of exchanges based on digital currencies, the development of the digital economy, the impact of digital currencies In the economy of a country, motivational factors for the production of digital currencies, the development of systems and technologies based on digital currencies and blockchain, global crises (such as the Corona epidemic), disruption of the management of the current affairs of countries, the irreversibility of digital currency transactions, anonymity or semi-anonymity The presence of wallet addresses, economic and political tension between countries, the possibility of making unlimited transactions, the conflict between countries' laws and money laundering laws, the functional role of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), organized fraud. with cryptocurrencies on the blockchain platform.
Conclusion
According to experts, by identifying four key uncertainties, i.e. the trust or lack of trust of users in the exploitation and exchanges of digital currencies, the formalization or non-formalization of exchanges based on digital currencies in the economy and monetary exchanges of societies, the development or non-development of the digital economy based on digital currencies. Disrupting the management of the current affairs of the countries or improving the management situation of the governments in the use of cryptocurrencies, sixteen uncertain atmospheres were created, and the scenarios were written by checking their credibility. In the most desirable scenario, governments use the benefits and wide and international applications of cryptocurrencies to increase their geo-economic weight. The creation of cryptocurrencies is a revolution in financial markets. Cryptocurrencies have managed to find their place in the global economy with their amazing performance over the last few years. Many large companies and investors use cryptocurrencies to diversify their investment portfolio and long-term investments. Also, people have a positive view of the future of cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, by using cryptocurrencies in financial relations and monetary exchanges, governments improve the management situation and current businesses develop their progress through the establishment of the governing flow of society's money and create There is no excessive money in the economy, which leads to controlling inflation.
Funding
There is no funding support.
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
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