جهانی شدن و مهاجرت نخبگان: شناسایی و رتبه بندی عوامل مؤثر بر مهاجرت نخبگان ایرانی با رویکرد تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
منابع انسانی ارزشمند نظیر افراد نخبه و کارآمد علمی در یک جامعه در عرصه های مختلف ملی نقش حیاتی ایفا کرده و از اینرو، مدیریت مطلوب و هدفمند این سرمایه های ارزشمند امری مهم به شمار می آید. با توجه به اهمیت مهاجرت نخبگان علمی و تأثیر منفی آن بر فرآیند توسعه در کشور، مطالعه حاضر به بررسی و شناسایی عوامل موثر بر مهاجرت نخبگان علمی در کشور ایران می پردازد. در این مطالعه از مدل ارزیابی مبتنی بر فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی به منظور رتبه بندی عوامل موثر بر مهاجرت نخبگان علمی به عنوان ابزاری کارآمد استفاده شده است. در همین راستا، ابتدا پرسشنامه خبره طراحی و در ادامه توسط خبرگان دانشگاهی تکمیل شده است. نتایج مطالعه حاضر مبین این مهم است که براساس دیدگاه خبرگان شاخص جهانی شدن بیشترین اثر گذاری را بر مهاجرت نخبگان علمی ایرانی دارد. مقاله حاضر ایجاد شبکه هایی متشکل از متخصصان ایرانی در خارج از کشور به منظور همکاری به صورت پاره وقت با مراکز علمی داخلی به عنوان راهکار کوتاه مدت و ایجاد فضای مناسب در ابعاد مختلف اقتصادی، اجتماعی و فرهنگی برای حفظ متخصصان کشور و جلوگیری از مهاجرت آن ها به خارج از کشور را به عنوان یک راهکار بلند مدت پیشنهاد می نماید.Globalization and Elite Migration: Hierarchical Analysis of Factors Influencing the Migration of Iranian Elites
Human resources, particularly elite and competent individuals, play a vital role in various national domains. Therefore, effective and purposeful management of these valuable assets is crucial. When a society lacks elites, its development process can stagnate. Iran has been experiencing elite migration for some time, which poses significant challenges to the country's development. This study aims to examine and identify the factors influencing elite migration in Iran. A hierarchical process analysis-based evaluation model has been employed to rank these influential factors. In this regard, an expert-designed questionnaire was first created and then completed by experts. The results indicate that, according to experts, globalization has the most significant impact on the migration of Iranian elites. This paper proposes creating networks of Iranian professionals abroad for part-time collaboration with domestic scientific centers as a short-term solution. For a long-term solution, it suggests the creation of a suitable environment across various economic, social, and cultural dimensions to retain the country’s experts and mitigate their migration abroad.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Migration is a critical factor influencing population dynamics, leading to shifts in age structures, sex ratios, and annual population growth, as well as significant social and economic transformations in both origin and destination countries (Sadeghi, Esmaeili, and Abbasi Shavazi, 2021). In contemporary discussions, immigration has emerged as a pivotal issue, eliciting robust public debates and influencing policies at both international and domestic levels. Scientific elites represent a vital form of human capital, contributing significantly to societal equilibrium and serving as a cornerstone for national growth and development. The depletion of these elites can impede developmental progress and pose a threat to societal stability. Efficient human resources are crucial across various sectors, making their optimal management essential (Khosravi et al., 2020). The emigration of scientific elites presents numerous challenges for their countries of origin, most notably the loss of highly educated individuals with advanced skills. This elite migration has significant implications for the economy and drains the nation’s expert workforce, highlighting the necessity for a thorough investigation. (Diba et al., 2019). This paper aims to examine and rank the factors influencing elite migration in Iran. Recognizing the importance of understanding the causes behind this problem, the study will employ the hierarchical analysis method and integrate insights from experts to provide a comprehensive overview of the motivations driving the migration of scientific elites.
Methods and Data
The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), developed by Thomas L. Saaty in 1980, is a powerful and flexible method within the multi-criteria decision-making framework. It facilitates the resolution of complex problems by structuring them in a hierarchical format that integrates both objective and subjective evaluations through pairwise comparisons. This approach helps analysts to systematically organize the core aspects of a problem (Abbasi Shavazi and Esmaeili, 2021).
In the implementation of the AHP, a purposeful judgmental sampling method will be employed. This involves selecting specific individuals who possess the knowledge needed to provide valuable insights for the research. The sample size typically ranges from 5 to 20 experts in each relevant field, with the sampling process continuing until theoretical saturation is achieved (Baby, 2003). In this study, the opinions of 15 experts were utilized to derive the weights of various factors. Among these, 8 experts are distinguished professors who studied in Iran and have since migrated to prestigious universities in the United States, Canada, Sweden, Greece, and Australia. Additionally, 7 faculty members from reputable universities in Iran contributed their insights.
To develop the expert questionnaire, the study draws upon Everett Lee's theory of repulsion and attraction, which identifies three key factors influencing migration: repulsion at the origin, attraction at the destination, and intermediary factors (globalization, individual characteristics, and family characteristics). Accordingly, the questionnaire was structured around these three main indicators. The study identified nine sub-indices related to repelling factors, eight sub-indices concerning attracting factors at the destination, and three sub-indices for intermediary factors. These extracted sub-indices were subsequently validated by the expert panel.
Findings
The expert questionnaire was crafted to enable a systematic comparison of indicators. It starts with an evaluation of key indicators against one another, followed by a comparison of the sub-indices related to each indicator. The study's findings revealed that intermediary factors are considered the most significant influences on the migration of scientific elites, closely followed by repulsion factors at the origin. In contrast, attraction factors at the destination were found to be less impactful in the context of Iranian elite migration. Moreover, within the comparison of sub-indices, five sub-indices emerged as the most important:
Globalization (0.40)
Expansion of the Internet and mass communication tools (0.34)
Cultural and social structures of the country (0.279)
Personal and family characteristics of immigrants (0.259)
Attractions of modern life (0.179)
Conversely, the study identified five sub-indices considered the least important by experts on elite migration:
Low wages compared to the expertise of the elites (0.044)
Non-compliance of the country’s living standards with international norms (0.072)
Diminished social dignity of the elites (0.077)
Concerns regarding the future of themselves and their children (0.084)
Lack of adequate economic opportunities for elites (0.089)
These findings highlight both the critical factors influencing migration decisions and the lesser influences that may not significantly deter or attract Iranian scientific elites.
Conclusion and Discussion
Based on the findings of the article, several policy proposals can be put forward. Given the significant role of globalization as the most influential sub-indicator affecting elite migration, it is essential to leverage media tools to amplify non-personal connections between Iranian elites and established educational and research centers abroad.
To this end, creating networks that include Iranian specialists living abroad can be beneficial. By encouraging their part-time collaboration with domestic scientific institutions, valuable contributions can be made toward developing a conducive economic, social, and cultural environment. This approach aims to retain the country's specialists and mitigate their migration abroad, while also enhancing the utilization of their expertise for the prosperity of the nation.
تبلیغات
