تدوین سناریوهای ارتقاء تاب آوری سکونتگاه های شهری جدید در برابر خطر زلزله، مطالعه موردی: منطقه شهری اصفهان بزرگ (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
هدف از انجام این پژوهش، تدوین سناریوهای مؤثر بر ارتقاء تاب آوری سکونتگاه های جدید در منطقه شهری اصفهان می باشد. این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از نظر روش، ترکیبی از روش های اسنادی، پیمایشی و آینده پژوهی است. بررسی ها نشان داده است که بر اساس وضعیت های احتمالی، تعداد 10040 سناریو برای مطالعه تاب آوری سکونتگاه های جدید منطقه شهری اصفهان در برابر خطر زلزله شناسایی شده است. از این تعداد سناریو، تعداد 9999 سناریوهای ضعیف، 36 سناریوی با سازگاری بالا یا باورکردنی و 5 سناریوی قوی شناسایی شده است. 36 سناریو با سازگاری بالا را با توجه به نزدیکی و ارتباط آن ها می توان به 4 گروه تقسیم کرد که هریک از گروه ها شامل چند سناریو می شود که به رغم تفاوت کم در یک یا چند وضعیت از میان 15 عامل کلیدی، ویژگی های تقریباً مشترکی دارند. این 4 گروه، نشان دهنده چارچوب کلی وضعیت های حاکم بر آینده تاب آوری سکونتگاه های موردمطالعه می باشند. با توجه به نتایج حاصل از بررسی گروه های مختلف سناریوها در این پژوهش، سناریوی شماره 1 در گروه اول سناریوها، به دلیل داشتن شرایط مطلوب و کامل، به عنوان سناریوی مطلوب معرفی شده است. همچنین در بین عوامل کلیدی موردمطالعه، عامل عدالت اجتماعی با میانگین 4- و مجموع امتیاز 144- به عنوان بحرانی ترین عامل کلیدی در سناریوهای موردمطالعه، شناخته شده است.Preparation of scenarios to improve the resilience of new urban habitations against earthquake risk the case study of Isfahan metropolitan
The purpose of this research is to compile effective scenarios for improving the resilience of new Habitations in Isfahan. This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of method; it is a combination of documentary and survey methods and future research. Investigations have shown that based on possible situations, 10,040 scenarios have been identified to study the resilience of new Habitations in the Metropolitan Isfahan Isfahan against the risk of earthquakes. Of these scenarios, 9999 weak scenarios, 36 high compatibility or believable scenarios and 5 strong scenarios have been identified. Thirty-six scenarios with high compatibility can be divided into four groups according to their proximity, and each group includes several scenarios with almost common characteristics despite the small difference in one or more situations among the 15 key factors. These four groups represent the general framework of the situations governing the future resilience of the studied habitations. According to the results of the examination of different groups of scenarios in this research, scenario number 1 in the first group of scenarios has been introduced as a favorable scenario due to having favorable and complete conditions. Also, among the key factors studied, the collective justice factor, with an average of -4 and a total score of -144, is the most critical key factor in the studied scenarios
Extended
Introduction
The inability to accurately predict the future, as well as the complexities of increasing change, has led researchers to take advantage of the emerging knowledge of future studies and bring the issue of foresight into the heart of planning activities and to predict scientific and technological developments.The appropriate effectiveness of today's decision-making is related to recognizing the future situation and how planners deal with it. Accurate knowledge of the future also depends on a suitable method for discovering the future. Today, with traditional planning methods, including outsourcing in the past, it is unlikely to generate reliable foresight in the medium and long term. Futuristic science approaches in planning to find the key factors and drivers of development in the planning space emphasize that in this way, the planner with the lever of control and management of the future to plan optimally for the future. In the urban area of Isfahan, the evolution of industry has played an important role in changing the economic structure and the emergence of a new hierarchy of residential areas and population concentration, especially in Isfahan. In order to overcome the problems caused by urban development, especially to reduce the housing problem and prevent population explosion, reduce the destruction of agricultural land, preserve the cultural texture and control construction, new habitations in Isfahan Metropolitan have been thought and built. Existence of numerous problems and issues, such as active faults with the ability to cause extensive human and financial losses, construction of high-level units outside the rules, weakness of infrastructure services such as medical centers, transportation, etc., extensive migration from inside and outside the province to these habitations, the establishment of heavy industries around these habitations, regardless of the characteristics of the structure, the high age of the building in some of the studied habitations, etc., has increased attention to the issue of resilience in these habitations. Given the importance of futurism has a significant impact on reducing the human and financial losses of human habitations, the question has been raised:
What is the most desirable scenario to improve the resilience of new urban habitations in the Isfahan Metropolitan?
Methodology
The present research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature, based on the new method of futurology, analytical-structural. Interaction / structural analysis is a method for analyzing the possible occurrence of an issue in a predicted set. Judgments about the potential for interaction between the predicted topics can adjust the probabilities of this. In this study, using 87 variables in the form of 6 dimensions, the interaction of the studied variables has been analyzed, and finally, using the identified key factors, scenarios affecting the resilience of new urban habitations in Isfahan urban area have been developed.
Results and discussion
In this research, 54 possible situations have been proposed for 15 key factors. The number of states of selected key factors is between 3-4 possible states for each factor. From a total of 540 possible situations in the table of scenarios with high compatibility in this research, 99 favorable situations (18.33 percent), 69 static situations (12.78 percent), 124 situations on the verge of crisis (22.96 percent), and 248 crises (93.45 percent). The results of the application of Scenario Wizard software in this research have shown that there are 10040 scenarios for studying the resilience of new habitations in Isfahan urban area against the risk of earthquakes, and it is possible to use this number of extracted scenarios to forecast the resilience of the studied habitations. It is not acceptable, and they can only be used statistically. The extracted scenarios can be categorized into three general sections as scenarios with strong compatibility, weak scenarios, and incompatible scenarios. Out of the 10040 scenarios obtained in this research, 9999 weak scenarios, 36 incompatible scenarios and 5 strong scenarios have been identified. In order to determine the optimal scenario among the strong scenarios, an action has been taken. According to the conditions governing the 3 mentioned scenarios, scenario number 1 can be introduced as the optimal scenario in this research because it has 100% suitable conditions.
Conclusion
According to the grouping of compatible scenarios, selecting the best scenario from 3 scenarios should be done. As mentioned in the previous topics, the scenarios of the second and third groups cannot be considered and cited due to having many problems; therefore, they should be removed from the review cycle at this stage. The only remaining group of scenarios is the first group, or the group of golden scenarios, which is in the best condition in terms of desirability. Since there is only one scenario in the golden scenario group, scenario number 1 of this research can be introduced as a favorable scenario for the resilience foresight of new urban habitations in the Isfahan Metropolitan. By examining the situation of scenario number 1 in the table of compatible scenarios, this result has been obtained that out of 15 situations, the development of geographical perspectives, increasing the level of awareness about the seismicity of the place of residence, identifying and dealing with dangerous factors, population density of 0-70 people, improving the level of social participation of citizens, increasing the level of social justice among citizens, the dynamism and development of economic and social activities, the development of intellectual and financial support for economic activities, the development of social capital, the improvement of the level of compensation capacities, the greater role of people compared to centers government during an earthquake, reducing damage caused by an earthquake, improving the level of performance of city managers during an earthquake, having a strong urban information bank and a large urban distribution have 100% favorability.
Funding
There is no funding support.
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
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