تحلیل ساختاری عوامل مؤثر بر توسعه میان افزا در اراضی قهوه ای مبتنی بر رویکرد آینده نگاری (مطالعه موردی: پادگان برونسی شهر مشهد) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
برنامه ریزی کاربری زمین دغدغه ای مهم در توسعه شهری برای پاسخگویی به نیازها، رفع چالش کمبود زمین و تعیین نحوه گسترش فیزیکی شهر است. بازتوسعه شهری با احیاء اراضی قهوه ای که به سبب عملکردی، امروزه متروکه و بلااستفاده مانده اند، به بهره برداری بهینه از اراضی درون شهری، کاهش آلودگی ها و بهبود فضای اجتماعی- اقتصادی شهر می انجامد؛ لذا این پژوهش کاربردی با روش توصیفی- تحلیلی و رویکرد آینده نگاری به تحلیل ساختاری عوامل مؤثر بر توسعه میان افزا در اراضی قهوه ای پادگان برونسی مشهد و شناسایی اولویت های مداخله پرداخته و توسط مطالعات اسنادی و پیمایشی، اطلاعات را گردآوری نموده است. نمونه آماری پژوهش 8 نفر خبره شهری است که به صورت هدفمند انتخاب شده اند. تعداد 15 متغیر مؤثر بر برنامه ریزی پایدار اراضی قهوه ای در حوزه های کالبدی- فضایی، اجتماعی- اقتصادی، مدیریتی- نهادی و زیست محیطی شناسایی و در پنج دسته تأثیرگذار، دو وجهی، تأثیرپذیر، مستقل و تنظیمی طبقه بندی و با نرم افزار میک مک ارزیابی شدند و سناریوهای محتمل و مطلوب تبیین گردید. نتایج بیانگر ترتیب درجه تأثیرگذاری عوامل قیمت زمین، دسترسی به امکانات و خدمات و نیز تعداد کاربری در اراضی بلااستفاده، بر پایداری برنامه ریزی است؛ لذا توجه به آن ها در مداخلات توسعه ای محدوده مطالعاتی و محدوده های مشابه می بایست در اولویت های تصمیم سازی و تصمیم گیری مدیران شهری قرار گیرد.A Structural Analysis of Factors Influencing Infill Development in Brownfields: A Foresight Study Approach (Case Study: Bronsi Barracks, Mashhad)
Abstract
Land use planning plays a crucial role in urban planning by addressing urban needs, tackling land scarcity challenges, and determining the physical growth of cities. Urban redevelopment, specifically the revitalization of vacant and abandoned lands, serves as an effective strategy to optimize land utilization, mitigate pollution, and enhance the socioeconomic urban environment. In this study, a foresight approach is adopted, employing descriptive-analytical methods to conduct a structural analysis of the factors involved in infill development in the Bronsi barracks brownfields located in Mashhad. Data collection was conducted through secondary research and surveys, with a statistical sample comprising eight purposively selected urban experts. A total of 15 variables associated with sustainable brownfield planning were identified, encompassing physical-spatial, socioeconomic, managerial-institutional, and environmental aspects. These variables were further classified into five groups: influential, double-faceted, susceptible, independent, and regulatory. To evaluate the relationships among the variables, the Micmac software was utilized, and subsequent scenarios including probable and favorable outcomes were determined. The analysis highlighted the priority of three key factors in inactive lands: land price, accessibility to services and facilities, and the number of land uses. These findings are of great significance and should be taken into consideration by urban decision-makers not only in the studied sites but also in similar areas.
Keywords: Structural Analysis, Infill Development, Brownfields, Foresight, Micmac, Bronis Barracks.
Introduction
The dispersed development and horizontal expansion witnessed over the recent decades have posed a multitude of challenges for cities. These challenges include issues such as poverty, cultural and citizenship ethics decline, poor local community safety and health, destruction of the natural environment and lands, and environmental pollution. Moreover, this pattern of development has resulted in substantial expenses for infrastructure creation and development on a larger scale. In addition, brownfields, which encompass former industrial sites such as factories, barracks, slaughterhouses, and prisons located on the outskirts of cities, have now found themselves within, and even at the heart of, urban areas due to this distribution pattern. As a result, these brownfields have brought about the aforementioned issues in residential areas. They are currently non-compliant with their surrounding land uses, and may even conflict with them in terms of visual standards and functionality, thereby discouraging citizens from being present in these areas and spreading insecurity.
The redevelopment of brownfields is considered a facilitating strategy for the reuse of inactive lands, and it is one of the effective approaches to address land use problems in Iranian cities. By implementing this strategy, not only can the spatial and physical quality of cities be improved, but it can also serve as a key factor in the pursuit of sustainable communities and a higher quality of life, all while safeguarding rural and agricultural lands. Among the significant brownfield sites officially designated for redevelopment is the 27-hectare Bronsi Barracks in Mashhad. In light of this, the present study utilizes the MICMAC method to identify the factors influencing the redevelopment of these lands and their extent of influence. Additionally, the study aims to propose and evaluate various redevelopment scenarios for the Bronsi Barracks site, in line with its secondary objective.
Literature Review
In their study titled "From Concept to Completion: Critical Analysis of Urban Village," Biddulph et al. (2003) focused on the processes of discourse construction and reconstruction. They concluded that the transformation of concepts into purely theoretical and operational plans led to contradictory lived experiences. Similarly, Aronita (2006) conducted a study titled "Analysis of the relative benefits of the heterogeneity of redeveloping vacant public lands" and proposed that the level of people's dissatisfaction with spaces could be a criterion for identifying brownfields and inefficient urban fabrics suitable for redevelopment.
Durrell (2012) presented a model with an integrated regionalism approach at the organizational level in his book "Economic Objectives of Brownfield Development in Germany." This model aimed to categorize brownfields with an economic orientation. Solitar and Laurier (2012) explored the role of development companies in their research titled "Increasing the Capacity of Urban Development Companies to Renew Worn-out Fabrics: An inner-city Approach." They sought to understand the meaningful economic effects of these companies' contributions to public participation in redevelopment processes. De Sousa (2002) discussed the growing inclination to redevelop urban brownfields in Canada since the 1990s in his study titled "Brownfield Redevelopment in Toronto: An Examination of Past Trends and Prospects."
Ahmadi (2013) conducted a study titled "Using brownfields, a stride toward functional improvement of urban neighborhoods; case study: Koshtargah Neighbourhood, Urmia." He applied land use planning in the infill development approach to revitalize and improve the studied neighborhood, specifically addressing the inactivity and abandonment of the slaughterhouse located within the area. In another study titled "Examining and Revitalizing Brownfields in the Context of Urban Sustainability," Tohidi Rad (2013) discussed sustainable development indicators and principles, examined brownfields, identified their challenges, risks, and characteristics, and proposed land-use alteration as a means to reincorporate these lands into the urban life cycle. Alaei et al. (2015) emphasized the role of brownfield redevelopment as a driver of sustainable urban development in their work, "Identification of factors affecting the redevelopment of brownfields in the context of Iran; Case: Abkoh sugar factory, Mashhad."
Shakri and Monsefi Prapari (2020), in their study titled "Investigation of the Principles and Strategies of Urban Redevelopment with the Brownfield land-use alteration approach," regarded brownfields as a solution to the urban sprawl problem and emphasized their potential as useful and income-generating lands within cities. Nourian and Afradi (2013) conducted a study titled "Application of content analysis to Assess and Identify the brownfield redevelopment process in leading countries." They argued that all redevelopment processes consist of four stages: initiation, cleaning, design planning, and implementation. Hasani and Saiidi Mofrad (2017) employed the social placemaking approach in their study titled "Planning for urban brownfield redesign with a social placemaking approach; Case of Abkoh sugar factory, Mashhad." They utilized scenario-writing techniques and presented three scenarios—minimum, middle, and maximum—ultimately selecting a flexible, accessible, and safe scenario.
In the present study, we adopt a novel approach to structurally analyze the factors involved in infill development in brownfields. This approach is based on the foresight approach, which has not been explored in domestic and international records, specifically in the context of the Bronsi barracks brownfields in Mashhad.
Methodology
Using a descriptive-analytical methodology, the present study examines the factors involved in sustainable land-use planning in the Bronsi Barracks brownfields in Mashhad. The study adopts the scenario-writing approach to prioritize these factors based on their impact on the future of the system and to identify the driving factors with the highest influence. Data collection employed both secondary research and surveys. The former was utilized to investigate relevant literature and examine the studied site, while the latter was conducted using the Delphi method and questionnaires distributed to eight experienced urban management experts in Mashhad.
To illustrate the variables in terms of their influence and susceptibility, a three-stage process was followed. This included the identification of variables across five categories: influential, two-faceted, susceptible, independent, and regulatory. Subsequently, structural-interpretive modeling and the Micmac software were utilized to define the relationships between these variables and identify key variables for further investigation of their respective ranges.
Conclusion
Brownfields have been found to diminish the value of surrounding properties and pose health risks to local communities as they clash with their environment. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify and prioritize the crucial factors involved in the planning of Bronsi Barracks brownfields in Mashhad. The results highlighted the significance of three factors in particular: land price, accessibility to services and facilities, and the number of land uses in inactive areas. These findings hold important implications for urban decision-makers in the studied sites and similar regions, as they strive to attain specific goals and create opportunities for inclusive urban utilization.
An analysis of the four scenarios revealed that the most probable scenario for the redevelopment of Bronsi Barracks brownfields was the first scenario, commonly known as the "center of problems." This scenario emphasized various challenges, including issues pertaining to management and institutions (such as inefficiencies in regulations and documents), environmental concerns, socioeconomic factors, and physical-spatial problems. Conversely, the most favorable scenario emerged as the fourth scenario, named the "all-inclusive barracks." This scenario indicated significant progress in all aspects and key factors, suggesting that socioeconomic and physical-spatial transformations could play pivotal roles in enhancing the area's conditions, based on the coefficients derived from the examination of these key factors.
Acknowledgments
We extend our heartfelt gratitude to the urban managers and experts in Mashhad for their invaluable cooperation. We appreciate their willingness to provide answers to our questions and diligently complete the questionnaires, which greatly facilitated the progress of our research. Their assistance was instrumental in ensuring the smooth execution of this study.
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