عوامل تعیین کننده مشارکت نیروی کار در ایران با رویکرد جنسیتی: کاربرد مدل تخصیص زمان بکر (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
مقاله حاضر به مطالعه عوامل اقتصادی- اجتماعی و جمعیت شناختی مؤثر بر مشارکت نیروی کار در استان های ایران، براساس داده های خام طرح هزینه-درآمد خانوار با به کارگیری روش اقتصادسنجی داده های شبه تابلویی پرداخته است. یافته های حاصل از برآورد مدل لاجیت، رابطه ی U وارون بین سن و احتمال مشارکت را نشان می دهد. بدین مفهوم که در سنین جوانی، احتمال ورود افراد به بازار کار بیش از دوران میان سالی و سال های انتهایی سن کاری است. مطلقه و مجرد بودن، در مقایسه با متأهل بودن، بر احتمال مشارکت تاثیر مثبت دارد، اما این اثر در گروه هرگز ازدواج نکرده بیش از گروه های دیگر است. محصل بودن، اثر منفی و بعد خانوار و سطح آموزش افراد، اثر مثبت بر احتمال مشارکت دارد. سرپرست خانوار بودن احتمال مشارکت را حدود 39 درصد افزایش می دهد. در یک نگاه کلی، با در نظر گرفتن آیینه جمعیتی و فراوانی جمعیت در سنین حدود 44-25 سال، تمایل بیشتر به مشارکت در گروه های سنی 34-25 و 44-35 سال و اشتغال به تحصیل بخش قابل توجهی از جمعیت در مقاطع آموزش عالی، افزایش نرخ طلاق و نرخ تجرد در ایران، افزایش مشارکت اقتصادی، در سال های پیش رو، دور از ذهن نیست. لذا انتظار می رود این مهم، در برنامه ریزی کلان کشور مورد توجه قرار گیرد.Determinants of Labor Force Participation in Iran with a Gender Approach: Application of Becker's Time Allocation Model
This study examines how socioeconomic and demographic factors influence labor force participation (LFP) in Iran. Data from the Iranian Household Income and Expenditure Survey applied the pseudo-panel data method used. The logit model estimations show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between age and the probability of LFP, with higher chances of entering the labor market at younger than at middle or old ages. Marital status also affects LFP, with respectively never-married and divorced people more likely to participate in the labor market than married people. Being a student reduces the likelihood of LFP while having a larger household size and a higher level of education increases it. Being the head of the household increases the probability of LFP by 39%. Demographic trends in Iran, such as the high proportion of young adults (25-44 years old) who want to join the labor force, the large number of young people in higher education, and the rising rates of divorce and singlehood, suggest that the economic participation rate will increase shortly. Therefore, this important issue should be considered in the macro-policy.
Introduction
The rate of economic participation is one of the indicators of the labor market. In examining the challenges of the labor market and making policies for employment, knowledge based on the factors affecting the probability of the labor force is important. In this research, we investigate the factors affecting the probability of labor force participation, emphasizing the non-linear relationship between age and participation using the pseudo-panel data method.
In the scientific litreature of the labor market, some of the factors affecting the labor participation rate are individual characteristics such as age, gender, education level, and work income; family characteristics such as the income of other family members, their education level, marital status, employment and size of the household (Hussain et al., 2016).
Participation rates among men and women are usually different, with female participation rates being lower than male participation rates. There are several reasons for this difference. Some can mention women's employment in homework or gender discrimination in the labor market to the detriment of women (Rajaian and Bagharpour, 2014). The employment rate can also have a direct relationship with the level of education; Because with an increase in educational level and skill, the possibility of employment and earning more income increases (Magidu, 2010).
Another factor that determines employment is the age structure of the population. In Iran, with the changes in the population age structure, a phase of demographic changes has begun, known as the demographic window. The demographic window is a temporary situation that started in 2005 and will continue for four decades. During this period, the proportion of the population of working age reaches its maximum, and the age dependency ratios decrease. As a result, a golden and unique opportunity for economic development in Iran is presented (Abbasishawazi, 2017). Some studies have considered the demographic window as an important factor in economic growth (Bloom & Williamson, 1998; Bloom et al., 2001). Lack of attention to this golden opportunity for the youth of the population and lack of planning for training according to the labor market will cause the waste of this potential capital.
Methods and Data
Data for this research gathered from the Household Expenditure and Income Survey conducted by the Statistical Center of Iran which is covered 73414 households.
In investigating the factors affecting participation in the labor market, the dependent variable is a latent variable that indicates economic participation or non-participation in the labor market.
According to the basic principles of binary choice models, considering that the dependent variable is a qualitative variable showing the two states of participation or non-participation of individual, probit or logit models can be used (Verbeek, 2008). However because the data used in this study is the household income expenditure survey for a specific year, we have to use the pseudo-panel data method too. Therefore, at first, the households were clustered geographically at the level of the provinces. It means the provinces of Iran play the role of sections, and the men and women in each province play the role of repeating the time series.
There is an important analogy between the econometric techniques used here and the method of estimation routinely used for panel data. In panel data, we typically have a short time series on a large cross-section of individuals. But here we have one-year data. Therefore, the provinces play the role of individuals (sections), and the observation in each province plays the role of the time series. To determine the factors affecting participation, a probability model was used that relates the chances of participating to characteristics such as age, literacy status, marital status, etc. The explanatory variables are chosen from Becker’s time allocation theory, previous studies, and data description.
Findings
The main findings can be summarized as follows:
A). The relationship between age and the probability of participation is inverted U-shaped. This means that in the age group of about 31-35 years, the probability of people entering the labor market is higher than before and after.
B). Being a man compared to being a woman has a positive and significant effect of 88% on the probability of participation.
C). Being a student has a negative effect on the possibility of participation.
D). The level of education of people has a positive effect on the probability of participation.
E). Being divorced and single compared to being married has a positive effect on the probability of participation, but this effect is greater in the never-married group than in the other group. While being a widow reduces the probability of participation by 17%.
F). The infrastructure level of the residential unit in which a person lives has a positive effect on the probability of participation compared to the base group. However, the greater the difference between the residential unit and the base group (households whose surface area of the residential unit is more than 120 square meters), which indicates the higher the class distance, the stronger this effect. Because to reach a favorable level of financial status and well-being, people must enter the labor market and if they are employed, devote more hours to work.
G). As the size of the household increases, the probability of participation increases by 1.9 percent.
Conclusion and Discussion
Despite the inverted U relationship between age and participation, the existence of the golden opportunity of Iran's demographic window, and the desire of the age group of around 25-44 years to enter the labor market, it is necessary for the government to take a correct and efficient decision to use this wave of youth ready to work.
Education has a positive effect on participation. Taking into account the individual's and family's attitude toward children's education and increasing the average level of education, for this human capital and creating opportunities from these potential capacities, policymakers must think of a suitable solution to use these potential capacities.
Being divorced and single has a positive and significant effect on the probability of participation compared to being married, and this effect is higher in never-married people. Considering the increase in the rates of celibacy and divorce in Iran, it is necessary to make decisions to facilitate the entry of these groups into the labor market while investigating the causes and pathology of these inevitable social phenomena, which are rooted in economic and cultural issues.
The level of infrastructure, which has been an indicator of the class gap, showed that the probability of participation of people in lower levels of well-being (here, the level of infrastructure in which the household lives) is more likely than in higher levels. Considering the inflation in society the fall of the middle classes to lower income levels, and the expansion of the poor classes in society, economic policymakers should expect more pressure on the labor market even to get a second job.
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