طراحی مدل ساختاری تفسیری شناسایی و سطح بندی ریسک های راهبردی مالی صنعت پتروشیمی جمهوری اسلامی ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
اهداف: نبودِ اطمینان محیطی و شدت رقابت در بازار های جهانی، شرکت ها و مجتمع های پتروشیمی را با چالش ها و ریسک های راهبردی متعددی مواجه کرده است. ریسک های راهبردی، ریسک هایی هستند که نظام راهبردی را بی تعادل می کنند و تأثیر منفی چشمگیری بر صنعت می گذارند. هدف این پژوهش، طراحی مدلی برای شناسایی و سطح بندی ریسک های راهبردی مالی در صنعت پتروشیمی است که مانع از تحقق اهداف راهبردی شده می شود و به شکل همه جانبه و کلان بر تمامی اجزا و ابعاد صنعت تأثیر می گذارد.روش: بدین منظور ابتدا از طریق مصاحبه نیمه ساختاریافته با ۱۴ نفر از خبرگان و فراترکیب مطالعات پیشین، داده های اولیه گردآوری شد. سپس با استفاده از روش تحلیل مضمون داده ها در سه لایه مضامین پایه، سازمان دهنده و فراگیر طبقه بندی شدند. در ادامه، با استفاده از مضامین سازمان دهنده شناسایی شده که عبارت است از: ریسک تحریم های مالی، تصمیمات مؤثر مالی دولت، اعتباری، نقدینگی، مالی حوزه تولید، اقتصاد کلان، بیمه و پوشش ریسک، بازار محصول و رقابت و مدیریت عالیه (راهبردی) پرسشنامه مدل سازی ساختاری – تفسیری طراحی شد و با نظرخواهی از ۱۵ نفر از خبرگان صنعت پتروشیمی روابط بین این ریسک ها ارزیابی و بررسی شد.نتایج: . در پایان در مدل نهایی که نشان دهنده سطوح ریسک های راهبردی مالی در صنعت پتروشیمی است، ریسک تحریم مالی به عنوان پرنفوذترین متغیر در مبنایی ترین سطح معرفی شده است.Designing an Interpretive Structural Model for Identifying and Prioritizing Financial Strategic Risks in the Petrochemical Industry of the Islamic Republic of Iran
Environmental uncertainty and intense competition in global markets have made petrochemical companies and complexes face many challenges and strategic risks. Strategic risks are risks that can unbalance the strategic system and have a significant negative impact on the industry. The purpose of this research was to design a model for identifying and prioritizing financial strategic risks, which prevented realization of strategic goals and affected all components and dimensions of the petrochemical industry. For this purpose, the primary data were first collected through semi-structured interviews with 14 experts and synthesis of previous studies. Then, using thematic analysis, the data were classified into the 3 layers of basic, organizing, and inclusive themes. Using the themes of the organizer, which were risk of financial sanctions, risk of effective financial decisions of the government, credit risk, liquidity risk, financial risk of the production area, macroeconomic risk, insurance risk and risk coverage, and product market risk and competition, a structural-interpretive modeling questionnaire was designed for high (strategic) management risks and the relationships between the risks were evaluated and investigated by asking the opinions of 15 experts from the petrochemical industry. In the end, the risk of financial sanctions as the most influential variable at the most basic level was introduced in the final model that showed the levels of financial strategic risks in the petrochemical industry.Keywords: Petrochemical Industry, Financial Strategic Risk, Theme Analysis, Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM). IntroductionThe petrochemical industry, which is referred to as a mother industry, is one of the most important and main industries in the world (Valizadeh et al., 2017). Petrochemical industry serving as the natural resource transfer of oil and gas is of considerable importance in Iran with its special mechanical and transit situation, significant foreign exchange, etc. On the other hand, one of the strategies to avoid selling raw materials and benefit from the country's special economic and geographical situations is converting raw materials, such as oil and gas, into products. These are the manufactured products that are more valuable and closer to the final range of value and consumption. In Iran's economy, the petrochemical sector can be considered as one of the most strategic areas of investment, to which governments always pay special attention (Khosrowzadeh et al., 2017).According to the research body, the Islamic Republic of Iran has a relative advantage for the production and sale of petrochemical products due to having huge reserves of oil and natural gas, strategic geographical locations, access to open waters, etc. Unfortunately, the growth trend of this relative advantage is negative, which shows the loss of relative advantage revealed in the global markets (Mahdavi & Malekshahian, 2013).The petrochemical industry is the link between the oil industry and other industries. It has faced a growing flow of risk (Athsoz et al., 2015). There are many risks in the fields of engineering, finance, economy, human resources, technology, etc. and the only way to deal with these risks is to know them first and then start planning to manage them. In other words, companies should be able to react defensively or offensively to risks by formulating a strategy in such a way that the effects of potential threats reduce the risks to the lowest possible levels (Fartukzadeh and Elahi, 2019).In this research, among the risks that the petrochemical industry of the Islamic Republic of Iran was facing, only financial risks, which could endanger the main and macro strategies of the petrochemical industry, were examined. Financial strategic risks are financial risks that prevent realization of the long-term strategic goals of the industry and can have an internal origin or be imposed from outside the industry. Knowing about the macro-financial strategies of the petrochemical industry, any types of financial risks that directly or indirectly prevent realization of these strategies can be considered as the strategic financial risk of the petrochemical industry. Considering that strategic financial risks are one of the most basic risks of the petrochemical industry and can cause many big problems, the purpose of this research was to provide a model for identifying the strategic financial risks of the petrochemical industry of the Islamic Republic of Iran because identification, analysis, and leveling of strategic financial risks could play an important role in preserving the current state of this industry and then smoothing its investment and development to increase the capacities and variety of petrochemical products.In this research, which was done with a mixed qualitative and quantitative method after stating the theoretical foundations and reviewing the previous research in the field of financial strategic risks in the petrochemical industry and other industries, we examined the research method and explained the extracted themes. Then, the Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) method was used to analyze the relationships and investigate the impacts and effectiveness of the risks identified through the model with the help of MICMAC matrix. Data and MethodIn this study, which was done using a mixed qualitative and quantitative method, the primary data were first collected through semi-structured interviews with 14 experts and a combination of previous studies and then by using the data theme analysis method, the 3 layers of basic, organizer, and comprehensive themes were classified. Furthermore, by using the Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) method, the relationships and impacts of the risks were identified with the help of MICMAC matrix. In this regard, by applying the organizer themes, the ISM questionnaire was designed and the relationships between the risks were evaluated and investigated by asking the opinions of 15 experts from the petrochemical industry. FindingsThe themes of the organizers, which included the risk of financial sanctions, risk of effective financial decisions of the government, credit risk, liquidity risk, financial risk of the manufacturing sector, macroeconomic risk, insurance risk and risk coverage, product market risk and competition, and senior management (strategic) risk, were identified.In the final ISM that showed the levels of financial strategic risks in the petrochemical industry, the risk of financial sanctions was introduced as the most influential variable at the most basic level. Conclusion and discussion The results of this research revealed that external risks (financial sanctions, etc.) affected punishment in the emergence or escalation of other risks. On the other hand, the specified levels and levels of the companies that the managers of the petrochemical industry managed in the cases they dealt with themselves were influenced by external factors, such as financial sanctions, decisions of the government's financial industry, macroeconomics, etc.
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