سناریوی چندجانبه گرایی در نظم پساکرونا و راهبرد سیاست گذاری ایران در آن (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
تاریخ باستان همواره شاهد علاقه انسان ها برای پیش بینی آینده بوده است. اما پاسخ به این علاقه در دوره های باستان بیشتر محصول گمانه زنی ها بوده است. بنابراین جذابیت شناخت آینده و اتکای گمانه زنی بر خطا و خیال سبب شد تا روند گرایش به دانستن آینده بر پایه تفکر سیستماتیک و بهره گیری از داده های علمی قرار گیرد. این تفکر سیستماتیک که آینده پژوهی یا علم تشخیص آینده نامیده می شود، امروزه جایگاه مهمی به دست آورده است. این جایگاه به ویژه در عصری که می توان آن را عصر بحران های مکرر نامید اهمیت دوچندانی دارد. زیرا در عصر بستر بحران ها، وجود ردپایی از آینده می تواند ضمن اینکه از غافگیری جلوگیری کند، دولت ها را در کاهش آسیب ها و آمادگی برای به کارگرفتن بهترین تصمیم یاری کند. در این پژوهش به دنبال پاسخ این پرسش هستیم که چندجانبه گرایی در نظام پساکرونا مبتنی بر چه نوع سناریویی خواهد بود و راهبردهای جمهوری اسلامی ایران در این سناریو چه باید باشد؟ با توجه به روش آینده پژوهانه، فرضیه ای در پاسخ به این پرسش ارائه ندادیم و یافته ها در چارچوب سناریوسازی و بهره گیری از رویکرد تلفیقی نشان داد که چندجانبه گرایی سناریویی مطلوب در دنیای پساکروناست و ایران به عنوان بازیگری بالقوه، نیازمند کاربست راهبردهایی ویژه برای سهیم شدن در ایجاد این نظم مطلوب است.The Scenario of Multilateralism in the Post-Corona system and Iran''''s policy-making strategy in it
History has long fueled people''s interest in predicting the future. But in ancient times, the answer to this interest was mainly based on speculation. Therefore, the attractiveness of future recognition and the mistake of speculation made the trend of wanting to know the future based on systematic thinking and the use of scientific data. This systematic thinking, now known as futures studies, has gained an important position.. This position is particularly important in an age that can be called the times of repeated crises. For in this age, knowing the future can help governments reduce damage and prepare to make the best decisions. Based on this, the central question of this research is: What kind of scenario is multilateralism in the post-coronavirus system? And what strategies does the Islamic Republic of Iran have in this scenario? Findings using scenario creation and the integrated approach show that multilateralism is a desirable scenario in the post-coronavirus world and Iran, as a potential actor, needs to adopt special strategies to contribute to creating this desirable order. Given the possibility of changes in the world after the coronavirus, which some even consider as a point dividing the world into before and after, knowledge of the future system can be very important to any government. Therefore, in this research, the authors try to show what kind of scenario multilateralism (probable, preferable and plausible) is and what strategies Iran should adopt. Methodology: Based on purpose, the method of this research is basic. In terms of data, it is a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches. The method of data collection in this research is descriptive-survey. Then, the preferable scenario is referred to elites (Delphi method). Result: Findings showed that the coronavirus as a severe crisis will affect the main elements and components of the international system such as security, economy, geopolitics and nation-state. AND the revival of multilateralism is a preferable scenario. Conclusion: In the future order due to the strong interdependence and the occurrence of crises that require transnational coordinated action, the world needs to revive reformed multilateralism. But since the world order is still witnessing a strategic and normative vacuum, this approach to multilateralism should be called the desired order, which will be very difficult to achieve, if not impossible. In this desirable order, Iran needs to adopt strategies such as classification of values, consensus on the national role, focusing on soft power, taking advantage of health diplomacy and ... to help the process of more dispersed regularity and the mix of multilateralism to provide more to its interests. The future vision can help to create long-term policies, strategies and plans while aligning more closely with the current conditions. Therefore, the goal of futurology is not to know the future, but to help make better decisions with methods that make us anticipate opportunities and threats and consider how to deal with them. Perhaps the most important reason for using future research methods is to help identify things we don''t know, but we need to know in order to make smarter decisions. In this article, we tried to show how multilateralism, which has failed and declined in recent decades due to various reasons, will be like after Corona. Surveys showed that in the future order, due to strong interdependence and the occurrence of crises that require transnational coordinated action, the world needs to revive reformed multilateralism. The policies during the spread of Corona as one of the biggest global challenges have caused the revival of multilateralism to be not a choice but a desirable necessity for all governments, because this crisis created a context for understanding contradictions and discrimination. . But since the world order is still witnessing a strategic and normative void, this move towards multilateralism should be called a desirable order, which will be very difficult, if not impossible, to achieve. In this desired order, the Islamic Republic of Iran as a potential power requires the application of strategies such as leveling of values, consensus on the role of a single nation, focus on soft power and use of health diplomacy in order to form a more dispersed order. and help more multilaterally to secure their own interests.
تبلیغات
