پیش یابی و شناسایی کانون های گردوغباری با استفاده مدل های عددی مطالعه موردی جلگه خوزستان (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
مهم ترین مشکل آب وهوایی استان خوزستان در سال های اخیر، پدیده گردوغبار بوده است که پیامدهایی منفی را بر روی سلامت شهروندان، کشاورزی، منابع آب داشته است. برای مقابله با مخاطره محیطی از جمله ریزگردها یا باید از رخداد آنها پیشگیری نمود و یا با پیش بینی زمان رخداد آن، به مقابله با آثار ناگوار آن پرداخت. با آگاهی از زمان رخداد گردوغبار می توان از آثار زیان بار این پدیده کاست. هدف از این پژوهش شناخت کانون های گردو غبار استان خوزستان و پیش بینی آن به منظور آمادگی مقابله با آن است. به منظور شناسایی کانون های گردوغبار و پیش بینی آن در جنوب غرب ایران (جلگه خوزستان) به کمک مدل های عددی HYSPLIT به روش برگشتی و انتشار استفاده شد. در همین راستا این مدل در 4 غالب برای دوره زمانی 2016-2000 اجرا شد. ابتدا به روش برگشتی برای یک محدوده که جلگه خوزستان مدنظر بود اجرا و مسیرهای انتقالی از 48 ساعت قبل اجرا شد. در ادامه پس از شناسایی کانون ها و مسیرها، به روش Forward از کانون های شناسایی شده غلظت ذرات و حجم انتقالی، عمق اپتیکی و مدت زمان رسیدن ذرات گردوغبار به منطقه محاسبه گردید. بررسی ها نشان داد 4 کانون اصلی در دوره مذکور مهم شناسایی شد. که اولی واقع در نواحی مرزی شمال غربی خوزستان، دومی واقع در جنوب شرق عراق، سومی غرب عراق و چهارم واقع در شرق اردن هست. بررسی حاکی از آن بود پس از انتشار گردوغبار در منطقه و شارش یافتن آن به منطقه خوزستان در جنوب غرب ایران به خصوص گردوغبارهای نشاءت گرفته از کانون های دوم و چهارم در منطقه است.Prediction and Identification of Dust Centers Using Numerical Models of the Khuzestan Plain Case Study
Abstract The most important weather problem in Khuzestan province in recent years is the dust phenomenon, which has had important and destructive consequences on the health of citizens, agriculture, water resources, etc. The source of these dusts was mostly foreign, but there are also areas inside the country known as their source. In order to deal with any environmental hazard, including fine dust, one must either anticipate their occurrence or deal with its adverse effects by predicting the time of its occurrence. By knowing the time of dust occurrence, I can reduce the harmful effects of this phenomenon. The purpose of this research is the centers of dust in Khuzestan province and its prediction in order to deal with it. In order to identify the centers of dust and predict it in the southwest of Iran (Khuzestan plain) with the help of HYSPLIT numerical models, back and diffusion methods were used. In this regard, this model was implemented in 4 Ghalib for the time period of 2000-2016. First, it was implemented in a backward way for an area that was intended to be the Khuzestan Plain, and transfer routes were implemented from 48 hours ago. In the following, after identifying the foci and paths, using the Forward method, from the identified foci of particles and the transmission volume, the optical depth and the duration of the arrival of the dust particles to the area are calculated. Investigations showed that 4 main foci were identified in this important period. The first is located in the northwestern border areas of the Khuzestan plain, the second is in the southeast of Iraq, the third is in the west of Iraq, and the fourth is in the east of Jordan. The survey indicated that after the dust was released in the region and its flow to the Khuzestan region in the southwest of Iran, especially the dust originating from the second and fourth foci in the region, due to the less vertical development compared to the heights in the region, it has been overestimated. are more durable; But the dust originating from the west of Iraq showed that it has a very high vertical development and has spread 10 kilometers from the surface of the earth. To predict the dust from the identified centers, the results showed that except for the main center, which was the inner center, it takes between 24 and 28 hours for the dust to enter the inner borders of the region, and it takes 28 to 32 hours to cover the entire region. Key words: numerical models, dust centers, forecasting, Khuzestan plain. Abstract The most important weather problem in Khuzestan province in recent years is the dust phenomenon, which has had important and destructive consequences on the health of citizens, agriculture, water resources, etc. The source of these dusts was mostly foreign, but there are also areas inside the country known as their source. In order to deal with any environmental hazard, including fine dust, one must either anticipate their occurrence or deal with its adverse effects by predicting the time of its occurrence. By knowing the time of dust occurrence, I can reduce the harmful effects of this phenomenon. The purpose of this research is the centers of dust in Khuzestan province and its prediction in order to deal with it. In order to identify the centers of dust and predict it in the southwest of Iran (Khuzestan plain) with the help of HYSPLIT numerical models, back and diffusion methods were used. In this regard, this model was implemented in 4 Ghalib for the time period of 2000-2016. First, it was implemented in a backward way for an area that was intended to be the Khuzestan Plain, and transfer routes were implemented from 48 hours ago. In the following, after identifying the foci and paths, using the Forward method, from the identified foci of particles and the transmission volume, the optical depth and the duration of the arrival of the dust particles to the area are calculated. Investigations showed that 4 main foci were identified in this important period. The first is located in the northwestern border areas of the Khuzestan plain, the second is in the southeast of Iraq, the third is in the west of Iraq, and the fourth is in the east of Jordan. The survey indicated that after the dust was released in the region and its flow to the Khuzestan region in the southwest of Iran, especially the dust originating from the second and fourth foci in the region, due to the less vertical development compared to the heights in the region, it has been overestimated. are more durable; But the dust originating from the west of Iraq showed that it has a very high vertical development and has spread 10 kilometers from the surface of the earth. To predict the dust from the identified centers, the results showed that except for the main center, which was the inner center, it takes between 24 and 28 hours for the dust to enter the inner borders of the region, and it takes 28 to 32 hours to cover the entire region. Key words: numerical models, dust centers, forecasting, Khuzestan plain.
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