الگوی دستیابی به سناریوهای مطلوب صنعت نفت و گاز ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
امروزه صنعت نفت و گاز به دلیل اهمیت در درآمدزایی کشور با چالش هایی مواجه است. در همین حوزه مطالعاتی در حوزه سناریوهای صنعت نفت و گاز ایران انجام شده است که هرکدام به نوعی از یک یا چند جنبه به پیش بینی و ارائه سناریوها پرداخته اند. عدم وجود یک الگوی جامع در مطالعات پیشین توجه به این موضوع را پر اهمیت کرده است. در این پژوهش هدف اصلی ارائه الگوی جامع دستیابی به سناریوهای مطلوب نفت و گاز ایران است. برای تحقق این هدف، از روش فراترکیب استفاده شده است. در ابتدا با مشخص کردن هدف و مطالعه نظام مند ادبیات، مقالات مرتبط جستجو و انتخاب شدند. از بین 108 مقاله جستجو شده، با مطالعه چکیده آنها تعداد 47 مقاله انتخاب و از بین مقالات انتخابی تعداد 22 مقاله که بیشترین تناسب با هدف پژوهش داشت و در آن ها از روش سناریونویسی به پیش بینی آینده صنعت نفت و گاز پرداخته شده بود، انتخاب شدند. در ادامه اطلاعات لازم از مقاله ها استخراج و سناریوهای به دست آمده در مقالات تحلیل، ترکیب و کدگذاری شدند. در مرحله کدگذاری چهارمقوله ارتباطات بین المللی، تغییرات انرژی، فناوری و نوآوری و تغییرات سیاسی - اقتصادی شناسایی شدند. جهت کنترل کیفی مقوله ها و کدهای شناسایی شده از ضریب کاپا استفاده شد. مقدار عددی ضریب کاپا با استفاده از نرم افزار اس پی اس 0.782 به دست آمد که نشان دهنده پایایی پژوهش است. همچنین جهت اعتبارسنجی نتایج الگو اولیه از نظرات خبرگان استفاده شد. در نهایت الگوی جامع طراحی و نتایج و پیشنهادات ارائه شد.A comprehensive model to achieve desirable scenarios of Iran’s oil and gas industry
IntroductionToday, the oil and gas industry is facing challenges due to its importance to the country's income generation. In the same field, studies have been conducted in the field of Iran's oil and gas industry scenarios, each of which has predicted and presented scenarios in one or more aspects. Although there are a few studies that have generally introduced the future scenarios of Iran's oil and gas, there is no comprehensive study in which a comprehensive model is presented that can determine a comprehensive model to achieve the desirable scenarios. The lack of a comprehensive model in previous studies has made it very important to pay attention to this issue. In this research, the main goal is to provide a comprehensive model to achieve the desirable scenarios for Iran's oil and gas.Methodology To achieve this goal, the Meta-Synthesis method has been used. This method analysis past studies and includes seven steps, which were initially identified by specifying the purpose and systematic study of literature, and related articles were searched and identified. Among the 108 articles found in the last 13 years, 47 articles were selected by studying the abstract of the article to enter the next stage, and among the selected articles, 22 were the most suitable for the purpose of the research, and in them, from the scenario writing method to forecasting the future of the oil industry. and gas had been discussed, they were selected. Next, the necessary information was extracted from the articles, and the scenarios obtained in the articles were analyzed, combined, and coded. In the coding stage, four categories international communication, the future of energy, technology and innovation, and political-economic changes were identified.Results and Discussion The Kappa coefficient was used for quality control of the identified categories and codes. The numerical value of the Kappa coefficient using SPS software was 0.782, which indicates the reliability of the research. Also, in order to validate the results of the initial model, experts' opinions were used, and the initial model was adjusted. Finally, the comprehensive design model, results, and suggestions were presented. According to the analysis, international communication is one of the main drivers of the uncertainties affecting future scenarios for crude oil. With the increase in energy demand, instead of fossil fuels, policies of energy supply and demand management should be used, replacing wind and solar renewable energies. Also, in the category of economic and political changes, an economy dependent on oil production will weaken economic security, and sanctions as a political tool are considered a decisive action against the country. In the category of technology and innovation, risk analysis and various uncertainties that can exist in the field of technology and innovation in the oil and gas industry, as well as the discussion of flexibility and a time schedule for applying the desired technology, should be considered. In addition, the existing equipment, methods, and technologies should also be standardized with advanced technical knowledge to increase the storage capacity of tanks, develop new pipelines, and strengthen the pressure of gas tanks with the aim of entering international markets.Conclusion To achieve the main objective of this research, a comprehensive review of the literature revealed that no existing model covers all aspects of the oil and gas industry. Therefore, a systematic literature review and meta-synthesis method were employed to develop a comprehensive model for optimal scenarios in Iran’s oil and gas industry. Initially, relevant articles were identified using appropriate keywords, resulting in 108 articles. After reviewing the titles, abstracts, and full texts, 22 relevant articles were selected for detailed study. These articles were coded, yielding 72 codes, of which 8 were discarded, leaving 64 validated codes. These codes were grouped into 15 themes, which were categorized into 4 main categories. Consequently, a comprehensive model was proposed, encompassing four categories: economic changes, energy changes, international communications, and technology and innovation. In the energy changes category, due to the increasing global demand for energy and the inability of neighboring countries to meet this demand, there will be a significant need for Iran’s gas market. As a result, energy intensity levels will rise, and the status of other energy sources, as well as energy consumption patterns and culture, will Strateg. Manag. Stud., Vol. 15, No. 59, Fall 2024Web: http://smsjournal.irDoi: 10.22034/smsj.2023.407487.1895become crucial. This model addresses Iran’s energy needs in the context of rising global demand and the inability of neighboring countries to fulfill this demand. Iran must increase its share of renewable energies and leverage its geopolitical power to export oil and gas. Additionally, to counteract sanctions and political changes, Iran must control its economy, shift its export strategies, and invest in exploration and drilling. The development of advanced technical knowledge and the standardization of equipment and technologies are also essential. This model can serve as a roadmap for better future management and achieving ideal scenarios for Iran’s oil and gas industry under current conditions. It can also act as a checklist for effectively examining various sectors of this industry.
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