تحلیل روند سیاست خارجی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در قبال ازبکستان؛ پیشران ها، راهبرد ها و سناریوها (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
استراتژی های سیاست خارجی کشورها همیشه تابعی از نقاط قوت وضعف داخلی و فرصت ها و چالش های محیطی بوده است. فروپاشی اتحاد جماهیر شوروی باعث فعال شدن سیاست خارجی ایران در کشورهای آسیای مرکزی گردید. از سال 1370شمسی و آغاز روابط سیاسی ایران و ازبکستان، روابط دو کشور روندها و رویدادهای متنوعی را تجربه نموده است. این پژوهش در تلاش است با اتخاذ رویکردی«بینارشته ای» به تحلیل و بررسی پیشران ها، روندها،رویدادها و نهایتا سناریوهای استراتژی سیاست خارجی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در ارتباط با ازبکستان پرداخته و به این مساله اصلی پژوهش پاسخ دهد که: رابطه میان مقدورات داخلی ایران و محذورات محیطی ازبکستان در راهبردهای سیاست خارجی ایران در این کشور چگونه بوده است؟ نتایج پژوهش حکایت از این دارد که نقاط قوت داخلی استراتژی های ایران در ازبکستان تحت تاثیر محذورات و تهدیدات محیط ازبکستان و محیط بین المللی قرار گرفته که منجر به عدم موفقیت راهبردهای سیاست خارجی ایران در این کشور شده است، اما تغییر شرایط سیاسی داخلی ازبکستان درکنار سیاست نگاه به شرق ایران و عضویت در سازمان شانگهای سناریوهای محتمل و مطلوب سیاست خارجی ایران در ازبکستان حکایت از حرکت به سمت سناریوهای خوشبینانه و تعمیق روابط دوجانبه طرفین دارد.Analysis of the foreign policy trend of the Islamic Republic of Iran towards Uzbekistan; Drivers, strategies and scenarios
Foreign policy strategies of countries have always been a function of domestic strengths and weaknesses and environmental opportunities and challenges. The collapse of the Soviet Union caused the activation of Iran's foreign policy in Central Asian countries. Since 1991 Shamsi and the beginning of political relations between Iran and Uzbekistan, the relations between the two countries have experienced various trends and events. This research is trying to take an "interdisciplinary" approach to analyze and examine the drivers, trends, events and finally the scenarios of the foreign policy strategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in relation to Uzbekistan and to answer the main problem of the research: the relationship between the internal capabilities of Iran and How have Uzbekistan's environmental restrictions been in Iran's foreign policy strategies in this country? The results of the research indicate that the internal strengths of Iran's strategies in Uzbekistan have been affected by the restrictions and threats of the Uzbekistan environment and the international environment, which has led to the failure of Iran's foreign policy strategies in this country, but the change in the internal political conditions of Uzbekistan along with the policy Looking to the east of Iran and being a member of the Shanghai Organization, the possible and desirable scenarios of Iran's foreign policy in Uzbekistan indicate a move towards optimistic scenarios and deepening of bilateral relations between the parties.
Extended abstract
1- INTRODUCTION
Until the 19th century, large parts of Central Asia were under sway of Iran. Based on its expansionist foreign policy, Tsarist Russia succeeded in occupying and annexing these regions to its territory. Following the collapse of the USSR, Iran was one of the Primary countries establishing Mutual relations with the newborn states. Located in Central Asia, Uzbekistan- Iran political ties was established in 1991. This research aims to answer this question that in the context of "trend analysis", what are the propellants, strategies and scenarios of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic in Uzbekistan? This survey suggested this hypothesis that despite the internal strengths and environmental capabilities, Iran's foreign policy strategies towards Uzbekistan have been more affected by environmental restrictions and threats.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
By making a conceptual model consisting of two strategic management models called "SWOT" and "PESTEL" and scenario creation technique, this research seeks to analyze Iran's foreign policy in Uzbekistan. SWOT is a classic strategy analysis tool based on four elements: Fortes, foibles, opportunities (within) and threats (periphery). The term Pestel refers to the first letters of the six categories of macro-environmental variables effective in the model (political, economic, socio-cultural, technological, legal and environmental). Using these two models, the internal Fortes and foibles of Iran in relation to Uzbekistan and the opportunities and challenges of Uzbekistan's environment for Iran are listed and then analyzed. Influential driving forces are also determined in relation to this issue. Scenario analysis is described as the art of juxtaposing current trends to come up with unexpected combinations of surprising futures.
3- METHODOLOGY
The thesis is based on descriptive-analytical method. The current research makes an effort to analyze all facets of Iran's foreign policy in Uzbekistan by adopting an "interdisciplinary" and "future-oriented" conceptual framework with an analytical-explanatory approach and then provide appropriate suggestions. The theoretical approach of the research consists of two strategic planning models called "SWOT" and "PESTEL" models as research apparatuses and future studies (scenarios) as research techniques.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
In the analysis of the relationship between the two, until the era of Islam Karimov, downbeat against Iran's presence in Central Asia was a constant event of Uzbekistan's foreign policy in relation to Iran. With the advent of Shaukat Mirziyoyev, Uzbekistan's foreign policy underwent a transformation, and pessimism against Iran's presence in the region isn’t on the rise. In the new era, Uzbek instance toward Iran has been highlighted in Uzbekistan's policies. Among these policies are: ensuring good neighborly relations in the region, forming a stability and security belt in Central Asia, Tashkent's neutrality in the conflict between Iran and the United States, and strengthening relations between Iran and prominent regional actors in Central Asia.
Possible scenarios: The continuation of the current trend of relations at the ongoing level is a no-startling scenario in the relations between the two countries. With bilateral trade worth 255 million dollars, Iran is the eighth economic partner of Uzbekistan.
Upbeat scenario: With the establishment of the 13th government in Iran and the priority of the strategy of looking to the east, shifts in the basses of Uzbekistan's foreign policy during Mirzayev's administration and most significantly, Iran's membership in the Shanghai Organization accompanied by Uzbekistan's agreement, it is expected that the level of mutual ties between the two states will grow significantly and favorably.
catastrophic scenario: Considering the US imposed sanctions on Iran, the possibility of no deal in Iran's nuclear talks with the West, the person-centeredness of politics in Central Asian republics including Uzbekistan, it is conceivable to reduce the level of bilateral political and economic relations between the two.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
The analysis of drivers indicates the existence of reasonable capacities for the prospering presence of Iran in this country. In general, and considering Iran's past and present strategies in Uzbekistan, it can be claimed that there is no reasonable balance between the internal capabilities of the Iran and the requirements of Uzbekistan's environment. In fact, it must be said that Iran's foreign policy in Uzbekistan has not been able to use the great capacities of this country. This failure is more due to Uzbekistan's skeptical view of Iran during the period of Islam Karimov, international sanctions against Iran. With the inauguration of Shaukat Mirzayev, the relations between the two sides have been on the path of restoration and development, a clear example of which was Uzbekistan's non-opposition to Iran's membership in the Shanghai Treaty.
Recommendations:
Strengthening the diplomacy of regional organizations in the form of organizations such as: Eurasian Economic Union, Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Improving the position of relations with Uzbekistan in the strategic thinking of foreign policy makers. Direction of political-economic relations based on cultural diplomacy
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