واکاوی علل مهاجرت معکوس در روستاهای بخش مرکزی شهرستان ماسال (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
مهاجرت معکوس، مهاجرت شهر به روستا است که بنابر شرایط محیطی و مکانی، می تواند عوامل گوناگونی با درجه اهمیت متفاوت در رخداد آن دخیل باشد. روستاهای بخش مرکزی شهرستان ماسال به عنوان محدوده مورد مطالعه، از جمله مناطق با مهاجرت معکوس بالاست. از همین رو، در تحقیق پیش رو سعی شد تا مهم ترین علل مهاجرت به آنها شناسایی شده و دسته بندی گردد. در این تحقیق آمیخته، ابتدا عوامل استخراج شده از مطالعه اسنادی به همراه عوامل احصاء شده از 20 مصاحبه ساختاریافته؛ توسط 10 کارشناس مورد اعتبار محتوایی قرار گرفته و نهایتاً عوامل نهایی در قالب پرسشنامه که توسط 330 مهاجر پاسخ داده شده، ارزیابی شده است. یافته ها نشان می دهد که تعداد 31 علت برای مهاجرت معکوس به دست آمده است که 9 عامل آن، جزو دافعه های شهری و 22 عامل دیگر، جزو جاذبه های روستایی می باشد و اینکه این عوامل در 8 عامل اصلی دسته بندی شده بیش از 83 درصد از واریانس علل مهاجرت را توجیه می کنند. نتیجه اینکه، جاذبه هایی روستایی به مراتب، تاثیر بیشتری نسبت به دافعه های شهری در مهاجرت به محدوده مورد مطالعه دارند.Analyzing the Causes of Reverse Migration in the Villages of the Central Part of Masal City, Iran
Reverse migration is city-to-rural migration, which can be caused by various factors with different degrees of importance, depending on the environmental and spatial conditions. The villages of the central part of Masal City as the study area are among the areas with high reverse migration. Therefore, in the previous research, it was tried to identify and categorize the most important causes of migration to them. In this mixed research, first, the factors extracted from the documentary study along with the factors calculated from 20 structured interviews; It has been content validated by 10 experts and finally the final factors have been evaluated in the form of a questionnaire answered by 330 immigrants. The findings show that 31 reasons for reverse migration have been obtained, of which 9 factors are among urban repulsions and 22 factors are among rural attractions, and that these factors, categorized into 8 main factors, explain more than 83% of the variance of the causes of migration. As a result, rural attractions have far more impact than urban repulsions in migration to the studied area.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The hope for a better life, a brighter future, and gaining new experiences drives people to migrate. Migration occurs in four forms: from villages to cities, cities to villages, between villages, or from smaller cities to larger ones. Migration from cities to villages, known as reverse migration or urban flight, has been confirmed through studies in the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Western Europe (Organi et al., 2017: 114). For the first time in 2011, according to Iran's census, the number of migrants from cities to villages surpassed those migrating from villages to cities by 15% (Iran Statistics Center, 2011). This shift indicates the impact of various factors leading to the reversal of migration trends (from city to village) and suggests spatial restructuring in the country. In recent years, reverse migration or counter-urbanization has intensified in the central rural areas of Masal County, with its effects visibly noticeable in these villages. According to the 2016 census, 2348 people migrated to Masal County, although there are no precise statistics on reverse migration to the central villages of Masal. However, evidence shows that a wave of reverse and urban flight migration has occurred in these villages over the past 10 to 15 years. Given the success of reverse migration policies in northern Iran, particularly in the study area, this research aims to identify the main causes of reverse migration to the central villages of Masal. Identifying these causes can be helpful for planning and policy-making regarding promoting this type of migration flow.
Methods and Data
This research employs a mixed-method approach (exploratory and causal). In terms of its goal, it is developmental-applied research, and in terms of data analysis, it follows a mixed (qualitative-quantitative) method. The statistical population includes all the inhabited villages in the central district of Masal County (40 villages). Due to the large number of villages for interviews and questionnaires, a mixed method was used to select several villages as representative samples from the central district of Masal. The selection criteria were as follows: 1. Villages were selected from both rural districts in the central area. 2. The selected villages had population diversity (low population: under 300 people, medium population: 500 to 1,000 people, and high population: over 1,000 people). 3. The villages had diverse access levels (villages near and far from the city). 4. The villages showed significant population and household growth over the last two census periods. 5. Villages with a large number of housing units built in the past 5 years (recent housing units exceeding 20% of total households).
First, the villages were classified based on political divisions (rural districts), population size, city access, population growth, and newly constructed housing units. Villages lacking these criteria, especially in terms of population growth and new housing, were excluded. Ultimately, 6 villages were selected as representative villages from the central district of Masal using a stratified random selection method.
In more detail, the statistical population of this research, given its mixed-method approach (qualitative and quantitative), is divided into two groups. The statistical population for the first part of the study (qualitative section) consists of migration experts, including university professors, administrative experts, and local officials. Since the exact number of these individuals is unknown, 3 university professors (sociologists) and 2 local officials (village chiefs of the studied villages) were initially selected using a purposive sampling method. Subsequently, using the snowball sampling technique, interviews continued until theoretical saturation was reached, resulting in a total of 20 experts being interviewed.
However, in a quantitative section, the research target community is immigrants who have entered the villages of the central part of Masal city. Since there was no data regarding the number of immigrants who entered the villages of the studied area, therefore, county statistics were used, which are relatively high statistics (compared to the immigration statistics from the city to the village) and have a high generalization ability (based on the population and housing census data of Gilan province in 2016, the total number of immigrants entering Masal county has been declared as 2348 people). In this regard, the Cochran mathematical method was used to determine the sample size, which resulted in a statistical sample size of 330 immigrants (with a 5% error) and a combined method; purposeful (identification of immigrants / only immigrants, not villagers who were originally residents) and subsequently, random sampling was employed (for the identification of immigrants, the method of introduction and self-declaration was used. In this regard, immigrants were those who had come from the city to the village and lived in the village for nearly a year or more). It should be noted that due to the lack of a list of immigrants / unknown statistics of immigrants in each village (6 selected research villages), it was not possible to conduct stratified sampling in a discriminatory manner.
As previously explained, this research is of the mixed (qualitative-quantitative) type in terms of data analysis method. In the qualitative method section, structured interviews were used, and in the quantitative method section, a researcher-made questionnaire was employed. Initially, the research indicators and questions were extracted based on preliminary studies and the supervisor's opinion, and then the main research question (reverse migration factors) was discussed with colleagues and experts (qualitative phase). Subsequently, a questionnaire was designed and evaluated by immigrants by combining the indicators obtained from library studies and interviews; the Content Validity Ratio (CVR) analysis questionnaire was prepared and reviewed by a supervisory guide and experts (quantitative phase).
In examining the validity of the research tool (questionnaire factors), expert opinions (10 experts familiar with the subject, selected by the snowball method) and the content analysis method were used, and the output of this method was the identification of 25 final components. In examining the reliability of the questionnaire (with 25 relevant components), the opinions of 20 experts (as a pilot sample) and the Cronbach's alpha test were used, and the obtained reliability coefficient of 0.868 indicates the acceptable reliability of the research tool. It should be noted that the research experts were not fixed, and according to the development of the research objectives in each stage, specialized experts were used.
Also, since the study in question is of a mixed type, data analysis was performed in two stages. In the first stage, interview analysis was conducted using MAXQDA software. In the second stage, the CVR content analysis method was used to analyze the validity of the questionnaire, Cronbach's alpha test was used to assess the reliability of the questionnaire, and factor analysis in SPSS software was used to examine the reverse migration factors. The initial components of the research extracted from the theoretical research framework are presented below.
Findings
The findings of this research consist of two main parts: 1- Identification of the factors of reverse migration to the villages of the central district of Masal, obtained from three subsections: a- library studies, b- interviews, and c- content validity of questionnaires, and 2- Categorization of the most important factors of reverse migration to the villages of the central district of Masal, obtained from questionnaire evaluations. The findings are presented in the order below. According to the conducted interviews, a total of 31 identified factors are shown in Figure 3; 7 factors are categorized into 3 environmental indicators, 4 factors into 2 occupational indicators, 9 factors into 5 economic indicators, and 11 factors into 7 social indicators. The number of factors (31 factors) and their frequency (93 frequencies) were mentioned by 20 interviewed experts. For example, the factor of "high housing cost in the city" has been repeated 9 times, "low-cost land and housing in the village" has been repeated twice, and "increasing value of rural lands" has been mentioned once by experts. Eventually, these three factors were categorized as the indicators of "land and housing prices." Additionally, the percentage of indicator repetition relative to 93 frequencies (the total repetition of factor indicators). The "land and housing prices" indicator accounts for approximately 13% of the total factor repetition and has the highest repetition percentage (along with the employment and income indicator).
As previously explained, the final factors in the form of a questionnaire were evaluated by 330 reverse migrants in the studied villages, and their average opinions are presented below. In this regard, The factors of "beautiful nature and scenery of the village," "clean water and air in the village (urban air pollution)," "abundant water and fertile soil in the village," and "unique geographical conditions of the village (proximity to the sea and green areas/hillsides)" received the highest average ratings (scores) from the perspective of the migrants to the studied villages in this research, corresponding to the Likert scale; score 1 represents "very low" and score 5 represents "very high" (for example, abundant water and fertile soil, as one of the reasons for migration to villages, has an average score of 4.17, ranking between "high" and "very high").
Conclusion and Discussion
Reverse migration refers to migration from urban to rural areas, which can involve various factors of varying importance depending on the environmental and local conditions. The central villages of Masal district, as the study area, are among the regions with a high level of migration, and the present study aimed to identify and categorize the main reasons for migration to these villages. In this regard, after conducting library studies, interviews, a survey, and finally, content analysis, the primary factors for reverse migration in the studied area were identified and used for final evaluation. According to the interviews, experts believe that the key factors influencing migration to the central villages of Masal district include: land and housing prices (affordability in rural areas and expensiveness in urban areas), employment and income, leisure and comfort, water and climate, nature and beauty, transportation, costs, and pollution. Another finding is that the identified factors mainly revolve around the attractions of rural areas rather than the repulsions of urban areas (out of 31 identified factors from interviews, 22 factors (71%) with a total repetition rate of 64.5% (60 repetitions) are related to rural attractions, while the remaining are related to urban repulsions). In other words, rural attractions play a more significant role in reverse migration to the central villages of Masal district compared to urban repulsions.
The results of this study are consistent with the findings of Moller (2019) on the importance of climatic conditions, Helli and Pedersen (2022) on family relations, Rabani et al. (2011) on local attachment, distance, and migration, and Mohammadi and colleagues (2016) on water and climatic conditions of the region, Abdullahi (2016) on local attachment, housing, occupation, income, absence of ethnic and tribal differences, availability of educational facilities for social and economic development, age, infrastructural development, and establishment of tourism and hospitality services, Yaghoubi and Zabidi (2018) on the improvement of health and hygiene in villages, natural attractions of villages, provision of a peaceful environment, improved perspective, future agricultural profitability, and improvement of the region's employment capacity, as well as Mojtabavi and Salahi-Renjbar (2020) on the high cost of living in the city, high land prices in the city, low purchase and rental prices in villages, Sajjadi-Qidari et al. (2020) on low land, housing, and rental prices in villages, and high land and housing prices in the city, air pollution, proximity to the city and using its facilities, utilizing the clean rural air, higher peace, and security. However, the results of this study are inconsistent with Moller's (2019) findings on the lack of correlation between local employment opportunities and reverse migration, Qasemi et al. (2014) on the availability of affordable land and housing in villages, and Olfati et al. (2021) on the availability of educational facilities, modern communication technologies, access to resources, income generation, compatibility, and proximity. The importance of migration factors can vary from one region to another, depending on environmental conditions. As the northern villages of Iran have favorable climatic conditions, fertile lands, and abundant water resources, they attract tourists due to their beautiful and lush nature and offer employment and income opportunities. Rural attractions have a greater impact on migration to the study area than urban repulsion factors, as confirmed by the results of this study and the findings of Solimi and colleagues (2020).
The study results support various theories such as the Social Network Theory (influence of strong bonds, continuous communication, and socio-economic factors in migration), the Environmental-Calvian Approach (impact of location, environmental conditions, and distance in migration), Einstein's Theory of Migration Laws (influence of access to opportunities and resources in migration), Boyle's Theory of Cost-Benefit Influence in Migration, and the Life Cycle Theory. According to the Life Cycle Theory, villages enter a growth stage after the emergence phase, increasing the hope for a better life, economic prosperity, and acceptable welfare services. This growth starts with attracting migrants; villages with their own attractions are considered suitable places for reverse migration and settlement. Considering the research results (main reasons for migration: high housing prices in the city and affordability in the village, access to better work and income, rural nature and climate, escape from urban congestion and pollution), the following recommendations are made.
Given the successful reverse migration policy and the experience of the northern villages of the country (especially those studied in this research), it is recommended to improve environmental conditions such as greenery, provide sustainable water resources for drinking and agriculture, and expand rural services and facilities to create a suitable environment for migration to other rural areas of the country. Considering the increasing migration to the northern regions of the country and the subsequent land and housing speculation, it is recommended to develop and enforce civil laws to prevent the construction of unauthorized structures and the resulting environmental impacts in the north, especially in rural areas, to maintain the ecological balance and address the negative consequences of reverse migration. As one of the main reasons for reverse migration is the high cost of housing in cities and its affordability in rural areas, it is recommended to plan and provide affordable housing in the peri-urban areas (areas with unused lands) based on the demand for housing to prevent the disruption of the ecological balance in rural areas due to reverse migration.
Acknowledgments
This article is adapted from the first author's PhD dissertation titled "Analyzing the Causes of Reverse Migration in the Villages of the Central Part of Masal City" at the Islamic Azad University of Khalkhal. The authors express their gratitude for the constructive feedback and suggestions provided by the dissertation committee during the research process and the anonymous reviewers of this article.
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