امکان سنجی الگوبرداری ایران از مدل توسعه اقتصادی چین (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
جستجوی الگوی توسعه اقتصادی مناسب ایران، همواره محل بحث بوده است. روند الگو برداری نه تنها متوقف نشده، بلکه از سوی ایران در قالب همکاری اقتصادی با چین مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. پیرو تاکید فوق، سوال اصلی پژوهش این است، تا چه حد امکان الگو برداری ایران از مدل توسعه اقتصادی چین وجود دارد؟ چه زمینه ها و موانعی در رویکرد الگوبرداری ایران از چین به خصوص در زمینه توسعه اقتصادی وجود دارد؟ بنا بر فرضیه، نیازهای متقابل اقتصادی ایران و چین، انتقاد مشترک به نظم بین المللی موجود، نقش مهم چین در جذب سرمایه گذاری خارجی، طرح اقتصادی یک کمربند/ یک راه، جایگاه خاورمیانه در تامین انرژی چین و همکاری های سیاسی و امنیتی به عنوان زمینه های الگوبرداری اشاره داشت. در مقابل متغییرهای؛ ساختار فرهنگی متفاوت دو کشور ، نهادگریزی در اقتصاد ایران، ساختار کمی و کیفی متفاوت جمعیتی دو کشور، ساختار اقتصادی متفاوت، بی اعتمادی اجتماعی ایرانی ها نسبت به همکاری اقتصادی با چین، تجربه تحریم های بین المللی، در هم تنیدگی اقتصاد چین با امریکا به عنوان یک قدرت تحریم گرا، تاکید چین بر جغرافیای سیاسی کشورها در امر توسعه اقتصادی و عدم الگو پذیری آن و ابهام در مبانی و نیت واقعی مدل توسعه اقتصادی چین، به عنوان موانع مهم امکان سنجی الگوبرداری از مدل توسعه اقتصادی چین به بحث گذاشته می شود. روش طرح پژوهش فوق، توصیفی تحلیلی است و در چارچوب نظریه وابستگی متقابل به بحث گذاشته می شود. اطلاعات و داده های این پژوهش به صورت کیفی با استفاده از منابع کتابخانه ای و اینترنتی جمع آوری می شود. روش ارزیابی منابع گرداوری شده نیز به صورت کیفی خواهد بود.Feasibility of Following China's Economic Development Model by Iran
The question that is discussed in the research is to what extent is it possible for Iran to model China's economic development model in the light of strategic cooperation between the two countries? What are the areas and obstacles in Iran's approach to modeling China, especially in the field of economic development? According to the hypothesis, it seems; The mutual economic needs of Iran and China, joint criticism of the existing international order, China's important role in attracting foreign investment, the One Belt/One Road economic plan, the position of the Middle East in China's energy supply, and political and security cooperation were mentioned as role models. In contrast to the variables; The different cultural structure of the two countries, institutionalism in Iran's economy, the quantitative and qualitative demographic structure of the two countries, the different economic structure, the social mistrust of Iranians towards economic cooperation with China, international sanctions against both countries, the influential weight of the level of trade China and America as a sanctions-oriented power, China's emphasis on the political geography of countries in the matter of economic development and its lack of modeling, and ambiguity in the foundations and real intentions of China's economic development model, as important obstacles to the feasibility of modeling China's economic development model. It is discussed. The nature of this research is descriptive and analytical and it is discussed in the framework of the theory of interdependence. The method of collecting information and resources of this research is qualitatively based on library and internet resources. Finally, the method of analyzing the collected information is also done qualitatively. In order to understand the nature of the relations between the two countries China and Iran and especially the interest that Iran has shown to cooperate with China, the theory of interdependence is a theory from which the possibility of adapting Iran's economic development model to China can be examined. gave However, it will be pointed out in the following that the mutual dependence of Iran and China faces important obstacles, which raises the question of how far it is possible for Iran to follow China's model of economic development, and what are the obstacles. Is there a field? With the investigations that were done, in examining the possibility of following the model of China's economic development, there are many fields and obstacles that understanding the perspective of the interactions between the parties requires paying attention to the influential variables in this field. In the field of cooperation between the parties, we can mention things such as the mutual economic needs of Iran and China, joint criticism of the liberal economic system, China's important contribution and role in helping to attract foreign investment, the perspective of the One Belt/One Road economic plan, the position He mentioned the Middle East and Iran in China's energy supply and political and security cooperation between the parties. On the other hand, it seems that the obstacles to Iran's imitation of China's economic development model cast a shadow on the future of the relations between the parties. In this framework, different cultural structure, institutional avoidance, different economic structure, adoption of parallel laws, social mistrust, international sanctions, interweaving of the economy of China and the United States, China's emphasis on the political geography of countries in economic development and ambiguity in The fundamentals and real policy of China's economic development model were pointed out. In the end, it is worth mentioning that the decision makers and the government of Iran are still looking for local and international solutions and models for economic development. Of course, although there is no consensus on the principle of accepting the concept of development in the country yet, the necessity of economic development is still emphasized in the declaration field. In the meantime, China as an emerging economy is becoming an economic development model for some countries that want a different experience. For Iran, the possibility of imitating China's economic development model depends on the major areas and obstacles that need to be carefully considered in studying this issue. Even though the text mentions both the positive components and the obstacles of modeling, it seems that due to the lack of transparency in China's strategy regarding its intention of economic cooperation in other countries, the weight of the obstacles to the feasibility of modeling is greater than its opportunities. . Because some believe that China is trying to start economic cooperation with countries through debt trap diplomacy, especially in the form of the Silk Road project, and then by paying loans with heavy interest, it will force countries to follow China's economic decision-making models. . In this research, from the above approach to livestock policy, it is mentioned that the model of economic development is compulsory. In fact, in modeling the economic development model of China, it is considered important to model according to the domestic economic and political situation. It seems that even though China claims that the economic development model is different according to the political geography of each country and it is not possible to apply a common version for all countries, but in practice, China is inclined towards economic cooperation with countries that, within the framework of cooperation, its economic interests It should be prioritized and countries cannot have other alternatives for their cooperation through the financial aid they receive. Therefore, in this research, the dual path of voluntary modeling and mandatory modeling is predicted as the two paths and ways forward for Iran's economic development in cooperation with China, and the requirements and challenges of each of the above two paths are worthy of attention.
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