شناسایی عوامل پیشران در آینده پژوهی نظام برنامه ریزی مسکن ایران، مطالعه موردی: شهر تهران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی عوامل پیشران نظام برنامه ریزی مسکن شهر تهران با رویکرد آینده پژوهی انجام شده است. نوشتار پیش رو ازلحاظ هدف کاربردی است و با توجه به مؤلفه های موردبررسی، رویکرد حاکم بر آن روش توصیفی تحلیلی است. در پژوهش حاضر به منظور انتخاب آگاهانه شرکت کنندگان، از روش نمونه گیری هدفمند استفاده شده است. اساس به کار بردن روش نمونه گیری هدفمند، انتخاب گروهی از خبرگان است که بررسی عمیق یا فهمی کلی نسبت به ماهیت پژوهش آگاهی داشته باشند. با استناد به توضیحات گفته شده جامعه آماری پژوهش پیش رو 74 نفر از کارشناسان خبره در حوزه مسکن شامل اساتید دانشگاهی متخصص در حوزه موردمطالعه هستند. تعداد حجم در نظر گرفته شده برای تکنیک دلفی 10 نفر و برای اجرای تحلیل تأثیرات متقابل در نرم افزار میک مک حجم نمونه در نظر گرفته شده با توجه به آشنایی متخصصین به این نرم افزار 64 نفر در نظر گرفته شد. یافته های حاصل از این پژوهش نشان داد که پیشران های ضوابط و مقررات مسکن، نرخ تورم، قیمت ارز و طلا، حجم نقدینگی، اقتصاد کلان، ثبات مدیریت شهری، تسهیلات بانکی، قیمت زمین و مسکن، تحریم های بین المللی وضعیت عرضه و تقاضا به عنوان پیشران های کلیدی در نظام برنامه ریزی مسکن در شهر تهران نقش دارندIdentifying Driving Factors in the Future Research of Iran's Housing Planning System the Case Study of Tehran
The current research was conducted with the aim of identifying the driving factors of the housing planning system in Tehran with a future research approach. The following article is practical in terms of purpose, and according to the investigated components, the dominant approach is a descriptive and analytical method. In this research, in order to consciously select the participants, the purposeful sampling method has been used. The basis of using the purposeful sampling method is the selection of a group of experts who have an in-depth investigation or a general understanding of the nature of the research. Based on the explanations mentioned earlier, the statistical population of the upcoming research is 74 experts in the field of housing, including university professors who are experts in the field of study. The number volume considered for the Delphi technique is 10 people, and for the analysis of mutual effects in the Mic Mac software, the sample size considered is 64 people, according to the familiarity of the experts with this software. The results of this research showed that the drivers of housing rules and regulations are inflation rate, currency and gold prices, liquidity volume, macro economy, urban management stability, banking facilities, land and housing prices, international sanctions and supply situation. and demand play a role as key drivers in the housing planning system in Tehran
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The issue of housing and foresight in this field in the city of Tehran is more important than in other cities due to factors such as the concentration of facilities and services, having diverse political and administrative roles, having various job opportunities, etc. Therefore, this research identifies and analyzes the factors affecting the housing planning system with a future research approach. Based on this, the interrelationships of economic opportunities and political challenges, and urban and economic planning of rulers, also the interaction of political, social, economic, and environmental indicators have greatly affected housing policy and planning, and housing planners should pay serious attention to the index and their relationships in order to solve the housing problem. Therefore, the research tries to answer this question:
-What are the driving factors in Iran's housing planning system with a future research approach?
Methodology
The following article is practical in terms of purpose, and according to the investigated components, the dominant approach is a descriptive and analytical method. The Delphi technique has been exerted to identify variables and indicators. In this regard, in the first stage, scientific research and review articles published on the research topic were used to collect the variables. Then, the semi-structured questionnaire was distributed among experts in the field of research. In the current research, to select the participants, a purposeful sampling method was used. The statistical population of the upcoming research consists of 74 experts in the field of housing, including university professors specializing in the studied field. The number volume considered for the Delphi technique was 10 people, and for the Mic Mac technique, the sample size was 64 people, according to the experts' familiarity with this software. In this research, to achieve the research goals, Mic Mac software has been used.
Results and discussion
Thirty factors have been analyzed with Mic Mac software to extract the main influencing factors. The dimensions of the matrix are 30x30. The degree of filling of the matrix is 82.35%, which shows that the selected factors have a relatively large and scattered effect on each other, and the system has enjoyed stability. Out of the total of 11560 relationships that can be evaluated in this matrix, 2040 relationships are zero, meaning The factors did not influence or were not influenced by each other. In 4120 relationships, the number was one, which means that they had little influence on each other; in 2760 relationships, the number was 2, which means that they had a relatively strong influencing relationship; in 2640 relationships, the number was 3. This means that the relationships of the key factors have been very high, and they have had a lot of influence and effectiveness. The research findings showed that ten drivers in the impact column had the largest contribution to direct impact, and the same ten variables were in the first ten indirect impacts. It should be noted that the green lines indicate the promotion of the desired factor. Indirect effects and red lines also mean the downgrading of the desired factor in indirect effects. For example, the VAR6 factor was ranked third in indirect effects, but this factor has been downgraded to the sixth position in indirect effects. However, the first ten drivers in direct effects are repeated on the indirect side as well. Therefore, the key drivers of this study are housing rules and regulations, inflation rate, currency and gold prices, liquidity volume, macro economy, urban management stability, banking facilities, land and housing prices, international sanctions, and supply and demand situation.
Conclusion
This research investigated the key factors affecting the future of the housing supply planning system in Tehran. For this purpose, mutual effects analysis methods were used in the environment of Mic Mac software. At first, 30 driving factors were identified using the Delphi technique, and then by implementing the identified factors in the Mic Mac software environment, four categories of two-faceted, influential, independent, and influential factors were identified, and finally, by evaluating the 30 identified factors. As a result of the analysis of the master plan, the effectiveness and effectiveness of ten key factors that had the most significant impact on the future state of housing planning in Tehran were known. The first factor was the construction rules and regulations; this factor emphasizes the strength and resilience of urban housing. This issue is of particular importance and necessity since natural crises, especially earthquakes threaten the city of Tehran. In the second place was banking facilities. Concerning the mentioned factor, it can be said that by providing low-interest bank facilities, many families can hope for housing. This facility allows many vacant residential units in different parts of Tehran to be bought by citizens, and the problem of uninhabited units is solved. The basic issue in this field is to review the process of providing facilities, which the operating banks should avoid the usual strictures. Based on the results, the price of land and housing played a key role in providing housing. In fact, the rising trend of land and housing prices can be prevented by seriously monitoring the market. The high demand for housing in the capital has led to a corresponding increase in the price of land and property. In the conclusion of the present research, it can be said that success in achieving the goals of housing planning is dependent on the effective interaction of the identified critical factors; using the identified factors and taking into account their priority and effectiveness, it can be concluded achieving the goals of housing planning provided sufficient attention from planners, policymakers and decision-makers to the influential factors for explaining housing planning, prioritizing and considering the relationships with each other, the necessary platforms for the realization and development of the desired development and a housing planning model will be created.
Funding
There is no funding support.
Authors’ Contribution
All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work.
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
تبلیغات
