مالکیت مسکن و ترجیح زمان گذار به والدینی در ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
رابطه بین مسکن و باروری در ادبیات جهانی مستند شده و مالکیت یا نوع تصدی مسکن به عنوان یکی از اصلی ترین سازوکارهای تأثیرگذار در این زمینه معرفی شده است. خلأ پژوهشی موجود در مطالعات داخلی نویسندگان را بر آن داشت تا با استفاده از اطلاعات پیمایش ملی ازدواج در سال 97-1396 و با روش آماری تحلیل پیشینه واقعه، به بررسی نحوه اثرگذاری مالکیت مسکن بر زمان مناسب تولد اولین فرزند پس از ازدواج (گذار به والدینی) بپردازند. یافته ها نشان داد زوجین ساکن در ملک پدری نسبت به زوجین صاحب خانه یا مستأجر، تمایل به فرزندآوری سریع تری دارند. علاوه براین، یافته دیگر مطالعه، مبنی بر تمایل به فرزندآوری زودهنگام تر در میان افرادی که خانواده پدری آنها درآمد بالاتری دارند، بر اهمیت نقش خانواده پدری از طریق تأمین مسکن و یا حمایت های مالی دیگر بر نگرش های مربوط به فرزندآوری در بستر ایران تأکید می کند. یافته ها همچنین حاکی از وجود رابطه مثبت بین تحصیلات و زمان مطلوب گذار به والدینی است که می توان آن را نشانه ای از معکوس شدن جهت رابطه تثبیت شده بین تحصیلات و فرزندآوری در ایران در نظر گرفت. مطالعات آینده می تواند با بررسی عوامل موثر بر این پدیده به تبیین آن کمک کند.Home Ownership and Preference for the Timing of Transition to Parenthood in Iran
The relationship between housing and fertility has been documented in the global literature and home ownership had been introduced as one of the main effective mechanisms in this area. The research gap in domestic studies prompted the authors to investigate the effects of home ownership on the ideal time for the birth of the first child after marriage (i.e., transition to parenthood) using the information of the National Survey of Marriage in 2016-2017. The results of the event history analysis showed that there was a relationship between home ownership and the ideal time of childbeaqring; in that the ideal time of transition to parenthood was faster among couples living in paternal property than among both homeowners and tenants. This finding together with the fact that higher income of paternal family accelerates the desire to have children emphasizes the importance of paternal family by providing housing or other forms of financial support in attitudes related to having children in Iran. Facilitation of childbearing through intergenerational transfer of wealth (from parents to children) is not far-fetched considering the current economic conditions (including youth unemployment and high inflation). The paper also found a positive relationship between education and the preferred time of transition to parenthood, which can be considered as a reversal in the established relationship between education and childrberinag in Iran. Future studies can help to explain this phenomenon by examining the influencing factors. IntroductionDemographic studies in the field of family and fertility have mainly focused on the two variables of education and employment in the past decades and have paid less attention to the issue of housing. One of the most important mechanisms of how housing affects couples' fertility and childbearing preferences is the homeownership or tenure (Vignoli et al, 2013), because most of couples prefer to provide high-quality and safe housing for life before having children. Nevertheless, the relationship between housing and childbearing in Iran has not been studied much. This is despite the fact that in line with the rapid fertility transition in the last three decades, the housing tenure status of Iranians has moved from being an owner to being a tenant. during which the percentage of people living in private (owner) residential houses has decreased from 73.4% in 1996 to 60.5% in 2016, while the percentage of people living in rented houses has almost doubled and reached from 15.4% to 30.7% in the mentioned period. (Statistical Centre of Iran, 1996-2016).Therefore, the question arises whether there is a relationship between homeownership and the ideal time to become a parent in the context of Iran or not? This article tries to answer the above question by using the data of the national marriage survey conducted in 2016-2017. Methods and DataThis is a quantitative study that was conducted through a secondary analysis. The data used was taken from the National Marriage Survey, which was compiled by the Iranian Civil Registry Organization in 2016 and 2017. The data collection of the survey has been done from all provincial centers (except Tehran province) and the statistical population included couples who went to laboratories for pre-marriage tests.Multivariate analysis was done using the event history analysis in Stata (version 17), and our statistical model was the proportional hazards or the Cox regressions. Therefore, in this article, the relationship between homeownership and the ideal time for the birth of the first child after marriage has been investigated with Cox regression and by controlling other variables that can be theoretically influential. FindingsThe survival function using the Kaplan-Meier estimator shows that the preference for the birth of the first child is significantly more common in the early years of family formation, so that about 68% of the observations tend to have their first child one year after marriage. Also, the output in terms of the type of homeownership shows that there is no significant difference between the time preference of the transition to parenthood among homeowners and renters. On the other hand, the "other" and “paternal” group had a significant difference in this regard, which seems that living in paternal property after marriage is associated with the desire to have children faster.In the next step, we ran Cox regression models to control and explain the influence of the social, demographic and economic characteristics of the sample in this relationship. Generally, it can be said that the most important finding of the regression models was that no significant difference was found between homeowners and renters in the attitude towards the ideal time for the birth of the first child, and this relationship in Iran's special socio-cultural context can be seen between homeowner couples and those who live in their father's property after marriage. This finding and another one about the desire to have children faster among people whose father's family has a higher income, emphasizes the importance of intergenerational wealth flow in fertility and its difference with the famous theory of John Caldwell (1976 and 2005) in the context of Iran. In this way, the transfer of paternal inheritance to children and economic support from them leads to acceleration of childbearing and increase of fertility among the second generation (children). In other words, people who receive more economic support from the paternal family and more wealth and assets (such as housing and shelter) are transferred to them, will become parent faster.Another interesting finding of this article was the positive relationship between education and the time preference of the transition to parenthood, which can be considered a sign of the reversal of the negative relationship between education and fertility in Iran. Future studies can help to explain this phenomenon by examining the factors affecting it. Conclusion and DiscussionAlthough our findings were not in line with some past studies in other countries, the way some variables such as ethnicity and income of the father's family influence in this analysis showed that the mechanism of influencing homeownership on childbearing in Iran can be related to cultural roots and intergenerational transfers, and this was actually the most important finding of the paper.The results of this article can be an incentive to conduct other studies on how housing affects fertility in Iran. The interaction between childbearing and housing cannot be limited only to the issue of access to housing or the type of tenure; Therefore, future studies should be able to answer questions about access to suitable housing or access to housing that meets the current norms and desires of couples. Considering the economic conditions prevailing in Iran and the stunning growth of housing prices in recent years, the need to include the housing issue in Iranian fertility studies is felt more than ever as one of the possible obstacles to realizing the economic security of couples.
تبلیغات
