تحلیل وضعیت تاب آوری سکونتگاه های ساحلی ایران (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان های ساحلی استان گیلان) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
مفهوم تاب آوری در گفتمان مدیریت پایدار، به ویژه در مناطق ساحلی، ریشه دوانده است. تاب آوری به عنوان یک کیفیت مطلوب در نظر گرفته می شود و سیاست و عملکرد مدیریت مناطق ساحلی به طور فزاینده ای در جهت به حداکثر رساندن آن است. با توجه به اثرات تغییرات آب و هوایی، دستیابی به تاب آوری اجتماعی، اقتصادی و کالبدی در محیط های ساحلی در بلندمدت بسیار پرهزینه است. هدف پژوهش حاضر تحلیل وضعیت تاب آوری شهرستان های ساحلی استان گیلان است. برای سنجش وضعیت تاب آوری شهرستان های ساحلی استان گیلان از 21 شاخص در ابعاد مختلف اجتماعی، اقتصادی و کالبدی استفاده شده است. روش پژوهش توصیفی-تحلیلی است. جامعه آماری پژوهش، شهرستان های ساحلی استان گیلان (شهرستان های آستارا، تاش، بندر انزلی، رشت، رضوانشهر، آستانه اشرفیه، رودسر، لاهیجان، لنگرود و ماسال) است. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها از مدل های BWM و PROMETHEE استفاده شده است. بر اساس نتایج پژوهش می توان گفت که وضعیت تاب آوری شهرستان های رضوانشهر، آستارا، رشت، لاهیجان و بندر انزلی مناسب است؛ در حالی که شهرستان های آستانه اشرفیه، رودسر، تالش، ماسال و لنگرود وضعیت مناسبی نداشتند.Assessing the Resilience Status of Coastal Settlements in Iran (Case Study: Coastal Settlements in Guilān Province)
The concept of resilience is rooted in the discourse of sustainable management, especially in the coastal areas. Resilience is regarded as a desirable attribute, and policy and practice in coastal area management are increasingly aimed toward promoting it. Considering the effects of climate change, achieving social, economic, and physical resilience in coastal environments is very costly in the long run. This study aimed to examine the resiliency of the coastal settlements in the province of Guilān. Twenty-one indices have been used in different social, economic, and physical dimensions to measure the resilience of the coastal settlements of Guilān province. The research method was descriptive-analytical. The statistical population of the research is the coastal settlements of Guilān province (the Settlements of Āstārā, Tālesh, Bandar-e Anzali, Rasht, Rezvānshahr, Āstāneh-ye Ashrafiyeh, Rudsar, Lāhijān, Langrud and Māsāl). BWM and PROMETHEE models were used for data analysis. According to the study's findings, Rezvānshahr, Āstārā, Rasht, Lāhijān, and Bandar-e Anzali have sufficient resilience levels, while Āstāneh-ye Ashrafiyeh, Rudsar, Tālesh, Māsāl, and Langrud have inadequate resilience levels. Extended Introduction Coastal cities worldwide are changing considerably due to human-induced vulnerability, population growth, and global climate change. The results of this transition show that coastal regions are very vulnerable to coastal hazards such as hurricanes, coastline erosion, coastal flooding, tsunamis, and rising sea levels caused by climate change. These risks gravely threaten coastal towns' physical, social, and economic components. The ecosystem of the sea and coastal areas is being destroyed due to the growth of people in coastal areas. According to estimates, more than half of the world's population is within 60 kilometers of the shoreline, and around 10% of Iran's population resides along the Caspian Sea.Numerous studies have been conducted due to concerns raised in recent years regarding how disaster-resilient communities. Few studies have been conducted regarding the country's coastal regions, according to the study of the research's literature. The demands of local residents and visitors, the exploitation of minerals, and the disposal and destruction of rubbish have put growing pressure on the seacoasts during the past century. There is a growing rivalry between corporate and public sector interests in coastal areas. The current study has thus looked at the coastal settlements in northern Iran to address this gap (Guilān province).MethodologyAccording to the applied-developmental purpose, the nature of the study, and the specified goals, the current research used a descriptive-analytical methodology. The statistical population included the coastal communities in the province of Guilān. BWM and PROMETHEE models were utilized for data analysis in Excel, PROMETHEE, and Arc GIS.Social resilience indicators: This index comes after the creation of nine resilience indicators, including population density, sex ratio, percentage of total literacy, percentage of female literacy, percentage of higher education recipients, percentage of immigrants, percentage of vulnerable populations (those under 15 and over 65), percentage of female-headed households, and percentage of single women (due to the death of a spouse or divorce). These indicators influence resilience in a significant way. Resilience, for instance, is likely to be lower in seniors (over 65) and young people when an accident occurs in one location (less than 14 years old).Economic resilience indicators: Economic resilience has been measured in this study using "gross employment rate, general population activity rate, economic burden, gross dependency burden, subsistence burden, and net dependency ratio."Physical resilience indicators: In this research, to measure physical resilience, the indicators of "percentage of resistant housing, percentage of housing ownership, percentage of rented housing, people in a residential unit, vulnerable people in a residential unit and residential units fewer than 80 square meters " were used.Results and discussionThe level of social resilience in Guilān's coastal settlements: A community's capacity to bounce back and use its resources to rebuild itself is known as social resilience. The population density, gender ratio, percentage of total literacy, percentage of female literacy, percentage of people with higher education, percentage of vulnerable people (those under the age of 15 and over the age of 65), percentage of immigrants, percentage of female-headed households, and percentage of single women (due to the death of a spouse or d) are all used in this study to determine the social resilience of the coastal settlements of Guilān Province. Results indicated that Rasht, Āstārā, Bandar-e Anzali, Rezvānshahr, and other settlements in the study had low levels of social resilience.The level of economic resilience in Guilān's coastal settlements: Economic resilience is characterized as the innate ability of people and communities to respond to and adapt to risks in a way that enables them to minimize possible losses brought on by hazards. In other terms, resilience refers to a society's aptitude and ability to resume economic activity following a crisis. The indicators of gross employment rate, general population activity rate, economic burden, gross dependence burden, subsistence burden, and net dependency ratio have been used to determine the economic resilience of the coastal settlements in Guilān Province. The economic resilience of the coastal settlements in Guilān Province has been determined by combining these data. The findings indicated that Langrod, Āstāneh-ye Ashrafiyeh, Lāhijān, and Māsāl have enough economic resilience, but Bandar-e Anzali, Rezvānshahr, Āstārā, Rudsar, Rasht, and Tālesh have poor resilience.The level of physical resilience in Guilān's coastal settlements: The resistance of constructed buildings to changes and future crises is defined as physical resilience. Indicators of resistant housing percentage, housing ownership percentage, rental housing percentage, people per residential unit, vulnerable people per residential unit, and residential units less than 80 square meters have all been used to gauge the physical resilience of coastal settlements in Guilān Province. The overall index of physical resilience of the coastal Settlements in Guilān Province was generated from the combination of the previously listed factors. The findings demonstrated that physical resilience is adequate in the Settlements of Rezvānshahr, Āstārā, Bandar-e Anzali, Lāhijān, and Māsāl. Still, it is unsuitable in Āstāneh-ye Ashrafiyeh, Rudsar, Tālesh, Langrod, and Rasht.The level of overall resilience in Guilān's coastal settlements: In this study, various aspects of coastal settlements in Guilān Province's resilience have been examined. Lastly, it provided an overview of their resilience. Based on the results of the 21 indicators above, the overall resilience index of the coastal Settlements of Guilān province has been generated, and its state has been assessed in those settlements. The findings indicated that while Āstāneh -ye Ashrafiyeh, Rudsar, Tālesh, Māsāl, and Langrud were in poor condition, the general resilience status in Rezvānshahr, Āstārā, Rasht, Lāhijān, and Bandar-e Anzali was good.ConclusionThere is no single remedy for managing human and coastal environmental systems, and solutions to enhance resilience may not easily proliferate among local, regional, and national governance institutions. Nevertheless, from a social point of view, the resilience of coastal settlements in Guilān province can be increased through social networks, participation, interaction, and communication of citizens with neighbors, insurance, and access to other financial resources. In the physical dimension, strengthening the standards of buildings, improving construction methods and building design, land use planning, and maintaining open space are measures that may enhance resilience. Controlling land use in flood-prone areas, having public infrastructure available, lifelines, retrofitting already-existing infrastructure (such as roads, bridges, electricity, water, etc.), having proper access to medical facilities, having proper access to relief organizations (Crisis Management Center and Red Hall), and expanding transportation options are some additional factors that increase resilience. To increase the resilience of the Guilān province's coastal settlements in urban management, it is hoped that the study's findings would be useful for more accurate and objective policy-making and planning based on the resident needs and would ultimately reflect in managers' decisions, to increase the province coastal settlements' level of resilience.FundingThere is no funding support.Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work.Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest.AcknowledgmentsWe are grateful to all the persons for scientific consulting in this paper.
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