ارزیابی تحقق پذیری هدف های برنامه های جامع ناحیه ای بر نظام توزیع فضایی جمعیت در سکونتگاه های شهری استان هرمزگان (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
برنامه ریزی در قالب ﻃﺮح ﻫﺎی ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ و عمران در ایران از ﺑﻨﯿﺎدی ﺗﺮﯾﻦ اﺑﺰار ﺷﮑﻞ دﻫﯽ سکونتگاه های شهری ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻧﻈﻢ و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ از ﭘﯿﺶ اﻧﺪﯾﺸﯿﺪه ﺷﺪه ﻣﺤﺴﻮب ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ. در این مقاله با هدف ارزیابی تحقق پذیری هدف های برنامه های جامع ناحیه ای بر نظام توزیع فضایی جمعیت در سکونتگاه های شهری استان هرمزگان، دو موضوع دنبال شده است؛ اول اینکه نظام سکونتگاهی در نقاط شهری استان هرمزگان بر اساس برنامه ها و اهداف طرح های ناحیه ای تحقق پیدا کرده است یا خیر؟ و دوم آنکه وضعیت توزیع فضایی جمعیت حداقل سکونتگاه های شهری استان هرمزگان از نظر تعادل تمرکز و توازن چگونه می باشد؟. بر این اساس نوع تحقیق کاربردی-توسعه ای و روش بررسی کمی-تحلیلی است. با توجه به اهداف کلان هر چهار طرح ناحیه ای در استان هرمزگان مبنی بر توزیع متناسب و متعادل جمعیت و نقاط سکونتگاهی، به بررسی وضعیت نخست شهری، تعادل و تمرکز جمعیت و الگوی پراکنش سکونتگاه های شهری در استان هرمزگان بر اساس شاخص ها و مدل های مختلف شامل شاخص نخست شهری، شاخص دو شهر، شاخص چهارشهر-دیویدسون، شاخص چهارشهر مهتا، شاخص موماو و الوصابی، شاخص هرفیندال، شاخص هندرسون، شاخص آنتروپی، قاعده رتبه اندازه و شاخص میزان مجاورت پرداخته شده است. نتایج نشان می دهد اگرچه طرح های ناحیه ای در استان هرمزگان در پیش بینی و پیشنهاد نقاط سکونتگاهی شهری در سطح استان در سطح قابل قبولی موفق عمل کرده است، با وجود پیش بینی های، جمعیت از وضع موجود پایین تر می باشد ، اما در دهه های اخیر از شدت تمرکز جمعیت کاسته شده و توزیع جمعیت در نظام شهری استان به سمت تعادل نسبی پیش رفته است.Assessment of the Feasibility of the Goals of Comprehensive Regional Plans on the Spatial Distribution System of the Population in the Urban Settlements of Hormozgān Province
Planning in the form of development and construction plans in Iran is the most basic tool for shaping urban settlements based on pre-planned systems. In this article, two issues have been followed to evaluate the feasibility of the goals of comprehensive regional plans on the spatial distribution system of the population in the urban settlements of Hormozgān province. First, has the residential system in the urban areas of Hormozgān province been realized based on the regional plans and goals or not? Second, how is the spatial distribution of the population, especially in terms of concentration and balance, in the minimum prime urban settlements of Hormozgān province? It was an applied-developmental research based on quantitative-analytical investigation. Considering the major goals of all four district plans in Hormozgān province based on proportionate and balanced distribution of population and settlement points, the first urban situation, balance, and concentration of population and distribution pattern of urban settlements in Hormozgān has been discussed province according to different indicators and models. The results indicated that while regional plans in Hormozgān Province have reasonably succeeded in predicting and suggesting urban settlement points at the provincial level, population predictions seem lower than the current situation. Nevertheless, in recent decades, the intensity of population concentration has decreased, and the population distribution in the provincial urban system has moved toward relative balance. Extended Introduction The spatial distribution of the population, both nationally and locally, is characterized by irregular dispersion. The majority of population and cities are located in the northern and western regions of the country. Meanwhile, the southern coastal provinces and regions, including Hormozgān province, suffer from low population density, the spatial order of cities, and the strategic planning of irregular population dispersion in urban centers. This article used four categories of indices to investigate the settlement of the population and spatial arrangement of cities in Hormozgān province and measure and match it with the goals and programs of regional plans (four regional plans including Bandar Abbās District, Bandar Lengeh District, Bandarjāsk District, and Qeshm District) which measure the degree of concentration and balance, prime urbanization, and population distribution.MethodologyIt was a quantitative-analytical research. The data collection method was documentary, using books and statistical yearbooks. Referring to the results of the general population and housing censuses from 1986 to 2016, the statistics of Hormozgān province and the population of urban centers were extracted and compared with the proposed goals and programs of regional development and construction plans of the province. Then, Given the substantial emphasis on goals and approaches in the province's regional plans, an investigation has been made into the issue of deconcentrating and the balanced and proportionate distribution of the urban population. Data classification and analysis of the spatial distribution system of urban settlements in Hormozgān Province have been carried out based on population criteria, utilizing models that examine prime urbanization, concentration, balance, and dispersion patterns. The results were then compared and analyzed concerning the anticipated distribution of the urban population and the objectives of the regional plans in Hormozgān Province. Microsoft Excel was used for calculations and graphs.Results and discussionThe results showed that prime urbanization and population polarization are the most important features of population settlement in Hormozgān province. During the four decades studied, the demographic imbalance of the province's cities is evident due to the concentration of population, activities, facilities, and services in Bandar Abbas city and its 7 times distance with the second city (Mināb). Such a situation makes it clearer the necessity of planning and the goal of moving towards population balance and its redistribution by paying attention to areas prone to population loading based on region plans and programs. On the other hand, based on Herfindahl and Henderson indices, in recent decades, the intensity of population concentration has decreased and the distribution of population in the urban system of the province has advanced towards relative lack of concentration.ConclusionIn a general summary regarding the future of urban network of Hormozgān province, it should be said that considering the current trends and also the comparison of the plans related to the direction of urban development with these trends and other factors that will influence it, if major changes in policies are not made we will likely face a new form of displacements in the form of migration and displacements, in favor of the more important hub (the prime city of Bandar Abbās).Hormozgān province is facing four main problems in achieving balanced spatial development:1- The intense concentration of the population, services, and investments in Bandar Abbās City has caused spatial heterogeneity and the decline of other areas, especially the villages;The existence of a settlement void in the settlement hierarchy system and the neglect of the role of the middle city in modifying the settlement system and creating connections with small settlement centers;3- The special environmental feature of the province due to its location in the desert and hot, dry areas; as a result of these factors, a part of the province's area cannot be used for settlement, such as Sanglakhi land (18 percent of the province's area), uncovered land, salty and salty land, and sandy land;4- Weak service delivery to the villages and the need for a more logical connection between villages and their higher level, which, as a result, affects the reduction of the population of these points and the migration process.The appropriate solution is to strengthen the middle cities to improve the spatial structure and achieve a more balanced population distribution structure according to the theories presented in this research. In fact, by strengthening the middle cities, changing the pattern of migration from the village to the prime city will help the population have a more balanced migration pattern.FundingThere is no funding support.Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work.Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest.AcknowledgmentsWe are grateful to all the persons for scientific consulting in this paper.
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