مدل سازی عوامل مؤثر بر گسترش عرضه تجارت الکترونیک در ایران با یک رویکرد تلفیقی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
تجارت الکترونیک یکی از مؤلفه های اقتصاد دیجیتال بوده و نقش مهمی در توسعه اقتصادی کشورها و رفاه جامعه دارد. طوری که اثرات اقتصادی و رفاهی توسعه تجارت الکترونیک بر کسی پوشیده نیست. براین اساس، در این پژوهش موضوع مدل سازی توسعه تجارت الکترونیک با رویکرد تلفیقی پویایی شناسی سیستم و اقتصادسنجی به عنوان نوآوری تحقیق موردتوجه واقع شده است. داده های مورداستفاده در تحقیق از سازمان مرکز توسعه تجارت الکترونیکی و سایر منابع آماری معتبر کشور به صورت سری زمانی از سال 1385 تا سال 1400 جمع آوری گردیده و متغیرها تا افق 1410 پیش بینی شده و فرضیه های مربوطه آزمون شده است. مطابق فرضیه اول، افزایش آگاهی دولت، کارآفرینان و مردم در طی زمان منجر به رشد بیشتر عرضه تجارت الکترونیک می گردد. در فرضیه دوم، با افزایش کیفیت سیستم تجارت الکترونیک، عرضه کنندگان تجارت الکترونیک نیز افزایش می یابد. بر اساس فرضیه سوم، افزایش درآمد سرانه ناشی از تجارت الکترونیک، منجر به افزایش عرضه کنندگان تجارت الکترونیک می شود. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش نشان می دهد که با افزایش تبلیغات، آگاهی مردم افزایش می یابد و منجر به افزایش تعداد تقاضاکنندگان و افزایش تعداد عرضه کنندگان تجارت الکترونیک خواهد شد. همچنین حمایت های دولت از زیرساخت ها منجر به افزایش کارایی، امنیت تبادل اطلاعات و اعتماد مردم می شود که درنهایت سبب افزایش عرضه کنندگان تجارت الکترونیک می گردد.Modeling Factors Affecting the Expansion of E-Commerce Supply in Iran by an Integrated Approach
1- INTRODUCTION
E-Commerce plays a fundamental role in the global economy and has a significant impact on the growth of countries. This area has far-reaching impacts on social activities such as retail, healthcare services, financial services, manufacturing and etc. E-Commerce is observed as a driver of future economic growth and is attributed to its new communication channels and constant accessibility. In Iran, this sector is growing, but the country's share of E-Commerce sales in the region is relatively small. According to the 2019 UNCTAD report, Iran's share of E-Commerce sales was only 7%, and the country ranked 42nd out of 152 countries in the E-Commerce sector. Therefore, in order to promote E-Commerce in the country, this research models the behavior of the E-Commerce system in Iran by integrating econometric and dynamic systems approaches. The aim is to simulate and evaluate the influencing variables on E-Commerce development, quantify the effects of the factors and clarify the obstacles to E-Commerce development in the country.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Several factors influence the adoption and development of E-Commerce, and categorizing them helps to understand and expand the mental model of E-Commerce development. Examples of influencing factors in E-Commerce development are trust in the E-Commerce system, security of the information exchange space, service quality, and information quality and system infrastructure quality, customer satisfaction, advertising, public awarenes, technology usage level and education and learning in E-Commerce. In this study, the factors affecting E-Commerce development in the country are divided into four groups: 1 – infrastructure, 2 – security and privacy, 3 – quality and benefits of E-Commerce, and 4 – trust and customer satisfaction. These factors are identified and classified in the study's conceptual model, with these four categories representing the most critical components of the dynamic E-Commerce system.
Based on previous studies, positive and crucial factors in E-Commerce include information availability and quality, awareness and information dissemination, infrastructure improvement, and culture promotion for the use of technology, improved education, electronic trust, perceived security, information quality and product variety, use of specialized information platforms, secure payment systems, advertising, government infrastructure support for E-Commerce, computer literacy and internet literacy. On the other hand, the barriers to lower acceptance of E-Commerce in society include legal problems and tax evasion, lack of technology infrastructure and the inconsistency of economic policies with the development of the e-economy.
3- METHODOLOGY
System dynamics aims at an internal interpretation of the causes of phenomena and system dynamics is one of the best scientific methods for modeling complex, dynamic and nonlinear systems. For this reason, the research methodology for identifying and modeling the factors affecting the development of electronic commerce in the country is a combination of systems approach and econometrics. The modeling uses time series data collected by the Statistical Center of Iran and other reliable statistical sources from 2006 to 2021, and the research model's predictions extend to the year 2031. The estimate of per capita income from electronic commerce in the dynamic model was performed with a multivariate regression model. The limit of the dynamic model for the development of electronic commerce is determined by the selection of endogenous and exogenous variables. To illustrate the system feedback, causal loop diagrams and state flow diagrams of the dynamic model are created by using Vensim software. The dynamic hypotheses of the research are validated by three tests: the reference behavior test, the extreme condition test and the sensitivity analysis test. After validating the model, policymaking will be carried out in two scenarios: increasing advertising and increasing government support for infrastructure development until 2031.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
The results of the reference behavior, extreme conditions and sensitivity analysis confirm the validity and accuracy of the dynamic model in research. The evaluation of the research hypotheses suggests that an increase in public awareness leads to a growth in the number of E-Commerce providers. In addition, as system quality increases, the number of E-Commerce providers increases exponentially. The increase in E-Commerce revenue also leads to a logarithmic growth in the number of providers.
The scenario analysis under the dynamic system model of E-Commerce development shows that doubling advertising leads to a 2.2% increase in vendors, while tripling advertising leads to a 6.2% increase. It is observed that advertising promotes the development of E-Commerce as an increase in advertising leads to increased public awareness, which ultimately leads to an increase in the number of consumers and therefore an increase in the number of E-Commerce provider’s leads. In the second scenario, a doubling of government support for infrastructure development leads to an increase in suppliers by 3.2%, and with a tripling of government support, suppliers increase by 4.2%, which contributes to the development of E-Commerce. This is due to the fact that increased government support for infrastructure leads to improved infrastructure quality, increased efficiency, security of information sharing and public trust. Increased trust leads to an increase in the number of buyers and an increase in E-Commerce providers.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
Increasing awareness among government, entrepreneurs and society will lead to further growth in E-Commerce offerings over time. Consequently, cultural, educational and support efforts are needed to develop and promote the use of E-Commerce in the country. The Iranian economoy and trade structure as well as the knowledge gap in technology have hindered the private sector from synchronizing with the developments and sustainably establishing E-Commerce in the country. Therefore, government policymaking and support are crucial to improve the quality of the E-Commerce system in Iran. The increase in sales through E-Commerce leads to an increase in E-Commerce providers. Efforts to support the market and expand electronic infrastructure are therefore also recommended.
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