برآورد سطح و الگوی سنی باروری در افغانستان: ارزیابی و تحلیل داده های پیمایش جمعیت و سلامت سال 1394 (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
افغانستان کشوری است که به دلیل ناامنی و بی ثباتی سیاسی و نبود داده های جمعیتی مناسب، وضعیت باروری و سایر جنبه های جمعیتی آن کم تر بررسی شده است. هدف از این مطالعه، برآورد شاخص های باروری افغانستان با بهره گیری از روش های مختلف است. برای این منظور، داده های پیمایش جمعیت و سلامت افغانستان در سال 2015 مورد استفاده و تحلیل قرار گرفته است. با به کارگیری تکنیک غیرمستقیم براس و رله، میزان باروری کل افغانستان در سال مذکور به ترتیب، 5.0 و 5.4 فرزند و با به کارگیری روش مستقیم، معادل 5.0 فرزند به ازای هر زن برآورد گردید. میزان باروری نکاحی براساس سن 7.1 فرزند و براساس رتبه 7.0 فرزند به ازای هر زن و به همین ترتیب میزان باروری تجمعی با روش نسبت توالی زنده زایی 7.2 فرزند به دست آمد. براساس مقادیر نسبت های توالی زنده زایی 90 درصد زنان 49-45 ساله در افغانستان در سال 2015 حداقل 5.0 فرزند داشته اند. همچنین 77 درصد از زنان در این گروه سنی که 7.0 فرزند داشته اند، برای داشتن فرزند هشتم پیش رفته اند. یافته ها حاکی از آن است که داده های پیمایش سلامت و جمعیت 2015 به عنوان یک منبع داده ای در دسترس می تواند بادقت نسبی، شواهدی از سطح و الگوهای سنی باروری افغانستان ارائه دهد.Estimating the Level and Age Pattern of Fertility in Afghanistan: Evaluation and Analysis of 2015 Demographic and Health Survey Data
Afghanistan's fertility status and other demographic aspects are poorly understood due to the country's insecurity, political instability, and lack of reliable population data. The country has a low contraceptive prevalence rate and varying estimates of the total fertility rate, which cast doubt on the validity of its population data and its demographic estimates. The 2015 Demographic and Health Survey of Afghanistan (AFDHS2015) is the only available data source that can be used to analyze the country's fertility status. This study aims to assess the validity and reliability of the AFDHS2015 data using different methods and to examine the pattern and trend of fertility in Afghanistan. This survey included 29,461 women aged 15-49 from all over Afghanistan. The total fertility rate (TFR) of Afghanistan in 2015 was estimated using different methods: the indirect Brass P/F Ratio and Rele methods yielded 5 and 5.4 children per woman, respectively, while the direct method yielded 5 children per woman. The marital fertility rate (MFR) is 7.1 children per woman based on age and 7 children per woman based on parity. The average parity progression ratio (PPR) and the cumulative fertility rate (CFR) of married women also indicate that each woman had 7.2 children by the end of her reproductive years. According to the PPR values, 90% of women aged 45-49 in Afghanistan had at least 5 children in 2015. Moreover, 77% of women in this age group who had 7 children proceeded to have an eighth child. The results suggest that AFDHS2015 data, as the only available data source, can provide relatively accurate evidence of the level and age patterns of fertility in Afghanistan. IntroductionFertility is a key topic in population studies, as it is a natural population phenomenon that affects the changes and transformation of population structures. Fertility is also a type of social behavior that reflects the social, economic, and cultural values and norms of society. Afghanistan, a multi-ethnic and culturally diverse country, has the highest fertility rate among South Asian countries, making its fertility study essential for its future development prospect. However, the country's insecurity, political instability, and unreliable data make its demographic aspects poorly understood. Currently, the 2015 Demographic and Health Survey (AFDHS2015) is the only available data source that can be used to analyze the country's fertility status. This study evaluates the AFDHS2015 data using different methods and examines the fertility pattern and trend in Afghanistan. Methods and DataPresent paper uses a secondary analysis of the 2015 Demographic and Health Survey of Afghanistan (AFDHS2015) data. The survey interviewed 44,627 women aged 15-49 and 29,461 married women aged 15-49, of whom 23.8% lived in urban areas and 76.2% lived in rural areas. The research used various methods to estimate the fertility rate of Afghanistan based on the available data. The total fertility rate (TFR) was calculated directly based on the age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) and indirectly using the Brass P/F ratio and the Rele child-woman ratio (CWR) methods. The marital fertility rate (MFR) and the parity progression ratio (PPR) were also calculated using SPSS, MORTPAK, PASS software packages and Excel spreadsheet avialable from the IUSSP website. FindingsThe results indicate that the total fertility rate (TFR) of Afghanistan is 5 children per woman and the marital fertility rate (MFR) is 7 children per woman. The TFR was estimated using different methods: the indirect Brass P/F ratio and Rele child-woman ratio (CWR) methods yielded 5 and 5.4 children per woman, respectively, while the direct method based on the age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) yielded 5 children per woman. The MFR was 7.1 children per woman based on age and 7 children per woman based on parity. The average parity progression ratio (PPR) and the cumulative fertility rate (CFR) of married women also suggest that each woman had 7.2 children by the end of her reproductive years. Table 1- Estimating the total fertility rate of Afghanistan in different methods, 2015 The parity progression ratio (PPR) indicates that most women aged 45-49 in Afghanistan in 2015 had at least 5 children and proceeded to have a sixth child, and more than three-quarters of them who had 7 children went on to have an eighth child or more. Similarly, most women aged 40-44 had at least 5 children and nearly three-quarters of them who had 6 children progressed to the seventh parity or higher. The table and graph below show the fertility rate of Afghanistan with different methods.Figure 1- Parity Progression Ratio by age group in Afghanistan in 2015 Conclusion and DiscussionThe 2015 Demographic and Health Survey (AFDHS2015) data is the only available data source that can provide relatively accurate evidence of the level and age patterns of fertility in Afghanistan. This study shows that the total fertility rate (TFR) of Afghanistan was 5 children per woman and the marital fertility rate (MFR) was 7 children per woman in 2015. The MFR was higher than the TFR by 2 children, which may indicate an increase in celibacy and delayed marriage in Afghanistan in recent years. However, Afghanistan still has the highest fertility rate among South Asian countries and one of the highest in the world. Moreover, the study shows that Afghanistan's fertility rate has declined in recent years. The TFR decreased from 7.4 children in 2000 to 5.4 children in 2015, and the age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) of women aged 25-29 decreased from 359 births per thousand in 1973 to 254 births per thousand in 2015. The parity-based fertility of Afghanistan shows that the decline in fertility started from the seventh parity and higher, while it remained relatively stable up to the fifth and sixth parity. In contrast, developing countries with a TFR of 2 or 2.5 children in 2015 experienced a decline in fertility after the second or third parity. Therefore, the results suggest that although Afghanistan's fertility rate is still high, it has started to decline. The findings indicate that the AFDHS2015 data can provide relatively accurate evidence of the level and age patterns of fertility in Afghanistan.
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