تحلیل ژئوپلیتیک الگوهای رفتاری مبتنی بر تنازع و تعامل در روابط ایران و عربستان سعودی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
شناخت عوامل مؤثر بر روابط کشورها از ضرورت ها و پیش نیازهای تأمین منافع ملی و تنظیم چگونگی سیاست خارجی دولت هاست. این عوامل می توانند شاخص های زیربنایی یا روبنایی قدرت ساز کشورها یا علائق متنوعی باشند که مناسبات آن ها را شکل می دهد. ژئوپلیتیک با واکاوی عوامل مختلف شکل دهنده قدرت ملی کشورها، علائق و منافع مختلف بازیگران، شناخت بنیادها و بسترهای بحران های منطقه ا ی و تحلیل بر مبنای عوامل ثابت و متغیر جغرافیایی فهم و آگاهی مورد نیاز را برای تدوین سیاست خارجی واقع گرا و عاقلانه فراهم می کند. کشورهای قرارگرفته در یک منطقه ژئوپلیتیک که وزن و قدرت ملی تقریباً یکسانی دارند، همواره به دنبال ایجاد گونه ای از توازن قوا در مناسبات ژئوپلیتیک خود هستند که بتواند اهداف و منافع ملی آن ها را نیز تأمین کند. جمهوری اسلامی ایران و عربستان سعودی به سبب همسایگی و وجود عوامل واگرا و همگرای مؤثر در سیاست های داخلی و خارجی خود، الگوهای رفتاری خاصی را در روره های مختلف تاریخی روابط خود بروز داده اند که در طیفی از تنازع تا تعامل، همکاری و رقابت قابل بررسی است. در این پژوهش به دنبال پاسخ این پرسش هستیم که در روابط جمهوری اسلامی ایران و عربستان سعودی کدام یک از الگوهای رفتاری تنازع یا تعامل غالب بوده است؟ یافته ها نشان می دهد که روابط ایران و عربستان سعودی متأثر از وجود تفاوت های بنیادین و ساختاری داخلی و خارجی، بسترهای ژئوپلیتیکی متعارض و واگرایانه ای است که در دوره های مختلف الگوی تنازع و تعامل را ایجاد کرده است، ولی با توجه به وجود عوامل همگرا و ضرورت های داخلی و خارجی این دو کشور در دوره های تاریخی مختلف، الگوی رفتاری تعامل و همکاری برای کاهش تنش ها نیز ارائه شده است.Geopolitical Analysis of Conflict-Based Behavior Patterns and Interactions in Iran-Saudi Relations
Relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have always been fraught with conflict due to differences in economic, ideological, military and security dimensions, but these conflicts have been accompanied by ups and downs in their 90-year regional relationship. So that at every stage of the relationship, after a period of tension and disconnection, and even limited wars and conflicts under the influence of charm and a major turning point in the relationship between the two countries, they are moving closer together and peaceful relations and interactions in one They have had a temporary period. The purpose of this article is to answer the question whether the geopolitical analysis and relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia at different times lead to conflict or interaction due to developments in the area of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia? The results of this study show that the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, due to their fundamental and structural differences, influenced by internal and external factors, cannot easily eliminate this conflict and tensions between the two countries. Taking into account the historical relations between the two countries at different times and the complexity of events over the last year and a half shows that both countries are reducing tensions and moving towards engagement in the relationship. Introduction One of the most important geopolitical regions of the world, where geopolitical events occured by various actors intensively, is the Southwest Asian region, in which over the past decades, various developments have made it vulnerable and confusing. International interactions of countries with each other in this region are influenced by the geopolitical importance of this region and its various developments. Iran and Saudi Arabia are two important and decisive countries in the region due to their geopolitical situations, their abilities and aspects. There is fierce competition between two countries for increasing influence and being number one in the region, in which different factors have led to continued competition in the historic relationship between the two countries. However, in the history of the two countries' relations, regular changes between tension and proximity have occurred. The evidences show that the two countries seek to manage their disputes, improve their talks and the peace process and move towards interaction at the peak of competition, and in this article, while examining the historical relations of the two countries in several historical stages that have moved towards interaction and coexistence, we examine the main factors of interaction at the peak of competition and hostility of relations of this period. Research method This research is fundamental in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method. The data collection is done by library method. Qualitative analysis is used to analyze the findings. The final conclusion of this study is done by qualitative method. Discussion and findings Looking at the history of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, it can be found that among their relations, although always along with tension and never favorable, there are many ups and downs. This behavior has occurred in the relations of the two countries for three periods, in which the first period began with the commencement of the two countries' relations in 1929 by the conclusion of the “Cooperation” treaty. After a period of tension and conflict, the relations between the two countries were cut for five years from 1943 to 1948 after the execution of an Iranian pilgrim by the Saudis. The starting point in the second period of relations can be attributed to the two countries' exposure in blocking the Cold War and this has caused that the two countries have enjoyed peaceful relations with the least tension for nearly thirty years. Then, the two countries have entered a tension phase by Iran's revolutionary by exporting its revolution strategy, which has caused unrest in some countries in the region. The security problems created for Saudi Arabia and Iran's post-war economic troubles paved the way for the start of the third phase of the period of tension declining and engagement in relations, and they had maintained relatively peaceful relations for about fifteen years. Then, after the US invasion to Iraq and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, their relations between the two countries entered a phase of intense regional competition, tension and conflict. The fourth wave of relations between the two countries, as in the previous periods, has passed all stages of interaction, competition, tension and conflict, and breakdown and it is the beginning of this phase, and they just need an important and influential turning point to start the relationship. Conclusion During many years of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the relations between the pattern of interaction and conflict have always fluctuated. By examining what comes out of the two countries' historical relations, the two countries will move away from each other until they have at least some mutual interest. Now these interests can be short-term or long-term, so in this study, by examining the relations between the two countries throughout the history of their relations, it has been concluded that in current, despite the many conflicts and tensions in various unresolved issues in the two countries' relations, and given that these tensions do not benefit either of them, and even these conflicts and tensions can lead them into direct war with great loss. And given that historically, the cause of tension declining in relations between the two countries always depends on a turning point in relations. What diminished tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, at least in the words of the two countries' officials, is a process that has been around for about half a year, starting with the US withdrawal from the “JCPOA” led to action and reaction in the two countries' relations and also events that make two countries to conclude that there is not any benefit for them to continue the current situation, and it will only cost them more resources to stay in this competition. Therefore, establishing a relationship between them can be a win-win relation for both countries.
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