مطالب

This paper aims to optimize the Central Bank transparency level which corresponds to the minimum of output volatility in 28 states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (due to the maximum data availability) during the period 2003-2014. For this purpose, the Dincer-Eichengreen index is used, which includes five aspects covering political, economic, procedural, policy, and operational transparency. The index ranges in numerical value from 0 to 15 with 0 being the most opaque and 15 the most transparent. Applying the Arellano-Bond GMM estimation and using the Dincer-Eichengreen index as a proxy of transparency, the result indicates that an increase in the level of central bank transparency will decrease output volatility up to a certain point, after which additional information from central banks begin to exacerbate it. In addition, the effects of other variables (financial depth, first lag of inflation, oil rents-GDP ratio) on output volatility are positive. Therefore, moving with caution towards monetary policy transparency is recommended as output volatility is reduced considerably, implying significant benefits for output stability.

In this paper Basel regulation is modeled in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework. For this purpose, using data from 1981-2017 for Iran, capital adequacy as an importance regulation is modeled. Results show Basel regulation has procyclical effect. According to the results of the model and according to the realities of economy and banking system of Iran, in recession, lending and credit risk increase and repayment probability decrease. Despite these conditions, capital adequacy does not increase. This confirms that risks are less relevant in determining capital. If elasticity of repayment probability with respect to capital loan ratio is zero, Basel II is more procyclical than Basel I. If elasticity of repayment probability with respect to capital loan ratio is 0.5, Basel II is less procyclical than Basel I.

Nowadays, the widespread connections among national and international organizations and industries make crisis in one area distress other organizations. One of the sensitive industries is banking industry, which has faced fundamental changes due to the various economic and political crisis in the last decade. Alterations such as exchange rates fluctuations, bankruptcy of unorganized institutions, economic sanctions and sanctions on banks cause crisis, which in turn result in the decrease in the public trust in banks, from both views of the depositors and stock investors. The present study, which is the first attempt in Iran, demonstrates approaches to the recreation and improvement of the trust in banking industry. To evaluate the hypothesis, a precise survey involving 455 banks customers, selected by random sampling method, was carried out in February 2018. According to the results, the trust in the government ownership have an important role in recreating of the trust in public sector banks. Besides, the role of state oversight and regulation extremely influences the recreation of the public trust in depositing in private sector banks. Most importantly, the trust in the government is significant on the increment of the trust in banking industry and the government ownership and regulation.

Nowadays, Foreign Capital Inflows (FCIs) are considered as a catalyst for economic development and an important source of transferring technology and foreign exchange earnings from developed to developing countries. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of FCIs (which include foreign direct investment, personal remittances and official development investment) on economic growth in Iran. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach is used over the period 1992-2016. The results indicate that all the three of foreign capital inflows have positive and significant impacts on economic growth in the short-run and long-run. However, Foregin Direct Investment (FDI) and Public Relations (PR) have more effects than Official Development Assistant (ODA) on economic growth of Iran. The study suggests the design and implementation of appropriate fiscal, monetary and trade policies to complement the flow of foreign capital inflows to realize of its full impact on growth.

In the present study, the effect of concluding and executing monetary treaties as well as membership of regional economic cooperation organizations (as a potential for using regional currency) on mutual exports between Iran and its 50 major trading partners during the period of 2000 to 2016 is investigated. The Generalized Commercial Gravity Model and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression of panel data with fixed effects are used. Countries' exports to each other are considered as dependent variables, and economic weight (log ratio of countries' GDP based on the purchasing power parity to each other), geographic distance between countries, real effective exchange rate and the degree of openness of the economy are independent explanatory variables. In addition, monetary treaties and the membership of the countries in the Asian Clearing Union, in the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) and in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) are considered as dummy variables. The results show a positive and significant relationship between monetary treaties and the volume of exports of countries to each other. Also, the coefficients of dummy variables are significant and negative, indicating the lack of potential for the use of regional common currency among 51 countries over the considered period.